Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Sailtheworld

bowlhead99 said:

Sailtheworld said:

quirkydeptless said:

Stock market vs Second Wave

That's two predictions for the price of one. The first is that there will be a second wave and the second that stock markets will crash.

The only takeaway from this thread (26 pages in it should be clear) is that the future is difficult to predict as is the market response to that future.

There might be a second wave or there might not be. If there is, stock markets might fall or they might not.  As both are 50:50, the chance of getting a second wave and it being bad for stocks, is only 50% x 50% = 25%.  So, more likely than not, it's all fine. 

[ducks]

Anyone taking a bet on heads (one wave) vs tails (second wave) has completely missed the point that there are many other sides to that coin. The virus could disappear tomorrow or it could linger as a single wave for years or pretty much anything else between. Fortunately the market prices in the possibilities.

quirkydeptless

badger09 said:

I'd like to think that guy survived, relatively unscathed.
However, he might have been very seriously injured, taking many years to recover to anything like his previous health

Goes with the territory I guess, like stock market investing, however he was OK...
 https://wwos.nine.com.au/news/surfer-cartwheels-down-monster-wave

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

bowlhead99 said:

Sailtheworld said:

quirkydeptless said:

Stock market vs Second Wave

That's two predictions for the price of one. The first is that there will be a second wave and the second that stock markets will crash.

The only takeaway from this thread (26 pages in it should be clear) is that the future is difficult to predict as is the market response to that future.

There might be a second wave or there might not be. If there is, stock markets might fall or they might not.  As both are 50:50, the chance of getting a second wave and it being bad for stocks, is only 50% x 50% = 25%.  So, more likely than not, it's all fine. 

[ducks]

Anyone taking a bet on heads (one wave) vs tails (second wave) has completely missed the point that there are many other sides to that coin. The virus could disappear tomorrow or it could linger as a single wave for years or pretty much anything else between. Fortunately the market prices in the possibilities.

Just to dispel one Facebook myth. The virus isn't going to disappear tomorrow. 

BananaRepublic

bowlhead99 said:

Sailtheworld said:

quirkydeptless said:

Stock market vs Second Wave

That's two predictions for the price of one. The first is that there will be a second wave and the second that stock markets will crash.

The only takeaway from this thread (26 pages in it should be clear) is that the future is difficult to predict as is the market response to that future.

There might be a second wave or there might not be. If there is, stock markets might fall or they might not.  As both are 50:50, the chance of getting a second wave and it being bad for stocks, is only 50% x 50% = 25%.  So, more likely than not, it's all fine. 

[ducks]

Using the same logic, an asteroid might hit the earth and wipe out all life this year, or it might not. Therefore it’s 50:50. 

However, on the basis of the earlier financial advice I’ve decided to buy myself a wet suit. Better safe than sorry. 

Diplodicus

June 11 - June 24 / the investment strategy of quirkydeptless appears right about twice a month. 

BrockStoker

BananaRepublic said:

Using the same logic, an asteroid might hit the earth and wipe out all life this year, or it might not. Therefore it’s 50:50.

Probably not the best example. The chances of an asteroid wiping out all life this year (or even this century) are definitely a lot less than 50:50!

bowlhead99

BrockStoker said:

BananaRepublic said:

Using the same logic, an asteroid might hit the earth and wipe out all life this year, or it might not. Therefore it’s 50:50.

Probably not the best example. The chances of an asteroid wiping out all life this year (or even this century) are definitely a lot less than 50:50!

My 'both are 50:50' with a smiley was just a continuation of the meme from another thread last month where Username999 told us that all investing was a gamble, because you will either make a profit or a loss, ergo 50:50. 

Which was swiftly followed up by the usual wags with "sign me up for the euromillions then, I'll either win it or I won't, 50:50", etc...

BananaRepublic

BrockStoker said:

BananaRepublic said:

Using the same logic, an asteroid might hit the earth and wipe out all life this year, or it might not. Therefore it’s 50:50.

Probably not the best example. The chances of an asteroid wiping out all life this year (or even this century) are definitely a lot less than 50:50!

I know. However, given recent protests and political nonsense I’m starting to think such an event might be an improvement. 

BrockStoker

bowlhead99 said:

My 'both are 50:50' with a smiley was just a continuation of the meme from another thread last month where Username999 told us that all investing was a gamble, because you will either make a profit or a loss, ergo 50:50. 

Which was swiftly followed up by the usual wags with "sign me up for the euromillions then, I'll either win it or I won't, 50:50", etc...

BananaRepublic said:

I know. However, given recent protests and political nonsense I’m starting to think such an event might be an improvement. 

Sorry. Missed the sarcasm, as usual.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

bowlhead99 said:

Sailtheworld said:

quirkydeptless said:

Stock market vs Second Wave

That's two predictions for the price of one. The first is that there will be a second wave and the second that stock markets will crash.

The only takeaway from this thread (26 pages in it should be clear) is that the future is difficult to predict as is the market response to that future.

There might be a second wave or there might not be. If there is, stock markets might fall or they might not.  As both are 50:50, the chance of getting a second wave and it being bad for stocks, is only 50% x 50% = 25%.  So, more likely than not, it's all fine. 

[ducks]

Anyone taking a bet on heads (one wave) vs tails (second wave) has completely missed the point that there are many other sides to that coin. The virus could disappear tomorrow or it could linger as a single wave for years or pretty much anything else between. Fortunately the market prices in the possibilities.

Just to dispel one Facebook myth. The virus isn't going to disappear tomorrow. 

Of course, almost certainly not, but thanks for missing the point about people missing the point.