What's going to happen to the FTSE100 when BP and Shell go bankrupt?

Bravepants

The index would just replace those two companies with something else. It's just an index.

parking_question_chap

Electric cars just isnt going to be on the agenda right now. Nobody will be able to afford to buy one.

steampowered

Electric cars still need fuel to generate the electricity !

We are a long way away from coming off oil and gas completely. Particularly if people don't want to have new nuclear power plants.

Malthusian

The most likely answer is nothing because they will have dropped out of the FTSE 100 ages ago and will be some obscure stock that people forgot still exists, like Kodak. They may even have been taken out of the market by private equity to cannibalise them for parts, a la BHS.

Alternatively as others have said they may pivot to renewables.

What do you think happened to the UK stockmarket when the East India Company closed down? That was far bigger than BP and Shell combined.

Gadfium

steampowered said:

Electric cars still need fuel to generate the electricity !

We are a long way away from coming off oil and gas completely. Particularly if people don't want to have new nuclear power plants.

Not necessarily. Look at the growth on renewably generated electricity over the last 10 years. There's no reason to assume that that rate will not continue.

Renewable energy is now cheaper to produce and buy than fossil-fuelled power.

will-he-payitoff

Gadfium said:

Renewable energy is now cheaper to produce and buy than fossil-fuelled power.

It may be cheaper than coal but its not cheaper than gas.

Petrol cars are going to be around for a long time yet.

steampowered

Gadfium said:

Not necessarily. Look at the growth on renewably generated electricity over the last 10 years. There's no reason to assume that that rate will not continue.

Renewable energy is now cheaper to produce and buy than fossil-fuelled power.

Non-nuclear renewable energy is a great top-up source of electricity, but is too unreliable as the main power source.

In the UK we have some days where renewable energy is the main source of power; other days where it provides almost nothing. Consumers won't accept only having electricity some of the time.

If most of the system came from wind/solar you would have power cuts when the wind is not blowing or sun not shining. That might change if someone invents an affordable way to store large amounts of power, but that's a long way off, right now batteries are not able to store anything like the kind of energy storage that would be required.

The gap needs to be filled by electricity sources which are "always on" (i.e. nuclear) or which can be turned on at short notice (i.e. gas).

Eco_Miser

steampowered said:

If most of the system came from wind/solar you would have power cuts when the wind is not blowing or sun not shining. That might change if someone invents an affordable way to store large amounts of power, but that's a long way off, right now batteries are not able to store anything like the kind of energy storage that would be required.

There are ways of storing large amounts of power (using gravity) in use,  they have high initial costs - hollowing out a mountain doesn't come cheap - , but low running costs.
Alternatively the excess electricity could be converted to hydrogen gas, with oxygen as a convenient by-product.  British Gas is currently starting trials of transmitting pure hydrogen through their gas mains, instead of natural gas.

benbay001

Take a paragraph or two to explain how you get enough battery capacity onto an aeroplane to allow it to cross the Atlantic, or how you get enough battery capacity onto a cargo ship to spend 2 months at sea propelling 10000 tons of freight or how you make those little plastic keys on your keyboard without oil...
Yes, i thought as much. You haven't a clue.

Sebo027

Gadfium said:

steampowered said:

Electric cars still need fuel to generate the electricity !

We are a long way away from coming off oil and gas completely. Particularly if people don't want to have new nuclear power plants.

Not necessarily. Look at the growth on renewably generated electricity over the last 10 years. There's no reason to assume that that rate will not continue.

Renewable energy is now cheaper to produce and buy than fossil-fuelled power.

I will give you one reason - the economic crash that's just happened. 
Eco_Miser said:

steampowered said:

If most of the system came from wind/solar you would have power cuts when the wind is not blowing or sun not shining. That might change if someone invents an affordable way to store large amounts of power, but that's a long way off, right now batteries are not able to store anything like the kind of energy storage that would be required.

There are ways of storing large amounts of power (using gravity) in use,  they have high initial costs - hollowing out a mountain doesn't come cheap - , but low running costs.
Alternatively the excess electricity could be converted to hydrogen gas, with oxygen as a convenient by-product.  British Gas is currently starting trials of transmitting pure hydrogen through their gas mains, instead of natural gas.

The fossil fuel industry is comprised of oil, gas and coal. Coal predominantly burnt for power, to create electricity. Gas is primarily used to heat our homes. Oil provides petrol for our cars, but a huge number of other derivative products are available to consumers as a result. The iPhone you have in your hand, the computer monitor you're reading off of, the interior of your car as well as paints, oils etc. I can't see gas going anywhere for a long time. Fortunately it's the cleanest of the group I suppose more likely to be tolerated by the media in the medium term. 
You mentioned hydrogen. One of the problems with hydrogen is the process to obtain it - electrolysis. You need electricity to create hydrogen. You could use a renewable source of electricity to generate hydrogen, but then you naturally introduce more losses through the inefficiency of converting energy. The second problem - assuming you would plan to use hydrogen to fuel cars - is that in a gaseous form it's highly combustible. A highly combustible gas, stored under pressure, in a moving vehicle is a danger to the passengers and everyone else. So then, you have to liquefy the hydrogen. That's fine, we can do that. It's possible to use more of the renewable-obtained-electricity to compress the hydrogen into liquid form and store it that way. And that is possible, however, when you tally up the energy losses and inefficiencies, petrol is cheaper and that is why it wins.