What's going to happen to the FTSE100 when BP and Shell go bankrupt?

JustAnotherSaver

parking_question_chap said:

Electric cars just isnt going to be on the agenda right now. Nobody will be able to afford to buy one.

Never mind that, the mileage you get out of one will need to improve before i get interested.

I was at the cinema a month or so ago and an advert came on for some electric car. Couldn't tell you the make/model as all i can remember was them boasting about how it gets 200something miles off a full charge.

Well that tempts me totally ......... not.

Since that's their boast, i imagine that would be under perfect conditions. Spot on temperature, not breaking the speed limit, being on cruise control at the ideal speed, so real world stats would be less than their projected number.

Even if we take them on their word with their figure, it was still pretty poor.

So nope, for me they'll have to 1) as you say, make it affordable. I cringe at spending upwards of £2k lol 2) Put more charging points around the country 3) I don't know how long it takes to charge a car now but i bet it's longer than it takes me to put 40-50 litres in my car .... which is no good 4) as said, more miles to a charge. Something comparable with diesel cars - such as 450-650 miles per tank/charge.

cloud_dog

JustAnotherSaver said:
So nope, for me they'll have to 1) as you say, make it affordable. I cringe at spending upwards of £2k lol 2) Put more charging points around the country 3) I don't know how long it takes to charge a car now but i bet it's longer than it takes me to put 40-50 litres in my car .... which is no good 4) as said, more miles to a charge. Something comparable with diesel cars - such as 450-650 miles per tank/charge.

That's a pretty myopic view.  With Evs and automation on the horizon (might be a little distant but nearing), there is likely to be a structural change in personal transportation.  Its impact may be very low or zero for you or I but things will change.

1) as you say, make it affordable
EVs are almost there (not quite) but total cost of ownership is almost equal.

2) Put more charging points around the country
Yes, this will be a challenge and will need to be led by the Government

3) I don't know how long it takes to charge a car now but i bet it's longer than it takes me to put 40-50 litres in my car
It does (obviously) but the way we travel (fill up) will simply change, and service stations will adapt to accommodate.  After all, we have been using motorway service stations for decades and that is all we are talking about.
Also, it is horse for courses, for those where transportation requires many, many hundreds of miles (or even thousands) then perhaps EV are not the right solution, perhaps hydrogen will be the fuel of choice

4) as said, more miles to a charge. Something comparable with diesel cars - such as 450-650 miles per tank/charge
They are not there yet, but they will.  There has (relatively) recently been a break through with using an 8-1-1 chemistry ratio (Ni, Co, Mn; ignoring Tesla atm).  We are around the $100 per KwH, which is the price point where Evs become cheaper than ICE vehicles, with the break through with the 811 chemistry they can now focus even more on extending the capacity of the batteries.

It would also be interesting to understand how many vehicles need to travel over 200 miles (400+ return), as a percentage of the vehicle per journey population.  I think there will be more than enough localised travel requirements to ensure the take-up, create the demand, allow time to roll out infrastructure so that those who need to travel 500+ miles can do so.

cloud_dog

I believe that within my daughters lifetime (possibly even mine) we will see a shift away from vehicle ownership towards simply using 'service vehicles' as and when.  With automation Uber, for example, could replace their drivers with an automated fleet and you may simply have a ride 'streaming' account with Uber (a bit like Spotify for music).  This may even mitigate the concern some people have regarding the travel distance for EVs; perhaps you plug in your route and Uber manages a couple vehicles for you to switch to when necessary so that you can complete your journey.  An upsized version of the automated delivery (wheeled) drones in use in Milton Keynes. 

I firmly believe this will happen, it is just a case of when.

Username999

cloud_dog said:

I believe that within my daughters lifetime (possibly even mine) we will see a shift away from vehicle ownership towards simply using 'service vehicles' as and when.  With automation Uber, for example, could replace their drivers with an automated fleet and you may simply have a ride 'streaming' account with Uber (a bit like Spotify for music).  This may even mitigate the concern some people have regarding the travel distance for EVs; perhaps you plug in your route and Uber manages a couple vehicles for you to switch to when necessary so that you can complete your journey.  An upsized version of the automated delivery (wheeled) drones in use in Milton Keynes. 

I firmly believe this will happen, it is just a case of when.

Indeed.
Tesla is working towards something like this with the "RoboTaxi".
There may come a time when Tesla DON'T sell cars, they simply rent them out.
Interesting times ahead.

mark13

Check to see what Shell and BP and other oilers are doing to diversify. These are some big players and have teams anticipating what is coming down the line , not just in the next couple of years but 20 years ahead. These and other energy companies have huge capital investment projects that take years to come to fruition so if they are smart they will be one step of us. With the oil price so low and the CV19 downturn these are bargains.  DYOR.