Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Sebo027

bowlhead99 said:

bostonerimus said:
A stopped watch is right twice a day. You can find numerous posts on here from sober forum members that have warned people of 50% losses. 

I couldn't be bothered devoting half an hour of my life to that video. I will however admit to - from time to time - being 'that guy' you mention, i.e. the sober forum member that warns people of the 50% losses.

As a trawl through my post history will show, I do it all the time and it's probably quite tiresome to hear. - I sound like a broken record sometimes.  I don't bang on about the size of likely drawdown in a global markets crash for the benefit of those who have seen it all before and heard it all before on the forums. .Nor because I have some fundamental aversion to stockmarket investing; nor the opposite, that I want to jealously keep all the gains to myself. 

It's because there is always someone new on the forum who hasn't seen a crash before, and risks being suckered in by the last 3 year chart or 5 year chart or 10 year chart which all show bull markets and easy growth from just hopping aboard a 100% equity tracker or a Fundsmith Equity fund or whatever. When markets drop they can really drop, and grown men start to cry when they realise they never really had the risk tolerance that they told themselves or their wife that they had.

A thirty year old was barely old enough to buy a beer the last time the global index started to fall more than a third, but he read the blogs and of course he says he knows he 'will just buy more' if the price goes down. Now he's at home nursing 30% losses hoping the government will send him a cheque  because he's not allowed to go to work.

Hard to disagree with what you've written. 
Isn't it true though, that the current price shock is primarily due to the rapid drop in oil price, and less - at the moment - to do with COVID-19?
For me that's the more worrying part - the fall out from COVID-19 is unprecedented. 

worldtraveller

CLOSING NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY:

FTSE 100 @ 5,295 - DOWN 31% FROM PEAK

FTSE 250 @ 13,925 - DOWN 37% FROM PEAK

FTSE ALL SHARE @ 2,894 - DOWN 32% FROM PEAK

DOW JONES @ 21,237 - DOWN 28% FROM PEAK

NASDAQ @ 7,335 - DOWN 25% FROM PEAK

Username999

bowlhead99 said:

Are you saying SP500 is going to 1700 and FTSE100 to 3954?
(sorry I couldn't be bothered reading yet another monologue)

Linton

Brido88 said:

bowlhead99 said:

bostonerimus said:
A stopped watch is right twice a day. You can find numerous posts on here from sober forum members that have warned people of 50% losses. 

I couldn't be bothered devoting half an hour of my life to that video. I will however admit to - from time to time - being 'that guy' you mention, i.e. the sober forum member that warns people of the 50% losses.

As a trawl through my post history will show, I do it all the time and it's probably quite tiresome to hear. - I sound like a broken record sometimes.  I don't bang on about the size of likely drawdown in a global markets crash for the benefit of those who have seen it all before and heard it all before on the forums. .Nor because I have some fundamental aversion to stockmarket investing; nor the opposite, that I want to jealously keep all the gains to myself. 

It's because there is always someone new on the forum who hasn't seen a crash before, and risks being suckered in by the last 3 year chart or 5 year chart or 10 year chart which all show bull markets and easy growth from just hopping aboard a 100% equity tracker or a Fundsmith Equity fund or whatever. When markets drop they can really drop, and grown men start to cry when they realise they never really had the risk tolerance that they told themselves or their wife that they had.

A thirty year old was barely old enough to buy a beer the last time the global index started to fall more than a third, but he read the blogs and of course he says he knows he 'will just buy more' if the price goes down. Now he's at home nursing 30% losses hoping the government will send him a cheque  because he's not allowed to go to work.

Hard to disagree with what you've written. 
Isn't it true though, that the current price shock is primarily due to the rapid drop in oil price, and less - at the moment - to do with COVID-19?
For me that's the more worrying part - the fall out from COVID-19 is unprecedented. 

I believe the falls in the past few weeks are because investors are sure that COVID-19 will have major short term effects on the world economy but have had little idea of what those will be. The natural response is to delay buying. As there are always forced sellers the result is that prices fall. At some point inexperienced investors sell in a panic which exacerbates the situation. As the future course of events becomes clearer the markets will stabilise and when a majority of investors believe the external situation will improve prices will recover.
The specific cause may be unprecedented, it often is. The result however is normal market behaviour which investors should expect every 5-10 years. So far the current fall is not unusually severe.

EdGasketTheSecond

bowlhead99 said:

I couldn't be bothered devoting half an hour of my life to that video.

  A horse to water springs to mind; it's your loss.

bowlhead99

Linton said:.

The specific cause may be unprecedented, it often is. The result however is normal market behaviour which investors should expect every 5-10 years. So far the current fall is not unusually severe.

True, it's not unusually severe compared to other crashes (scale of the fall). It was though unusually rapid (speed of the fall).

Username999 said:

bowlhead99 said:

Are you saying SP500 is going to 1700 and FTSE100 to 3954?
(sorry I couldn't be bothered reading yet another monologue)

No, I'm not saying that. Certainly a drop of >50% on a broad basket of global equities when measured in your base currency wouldn't be unprecedented, because that's exactly what is shown in the FTSE All-World factsheet covering 2007-2009 linked in some of the posts in the screenshot. It's what you can get with a 100% equities investment strategy.

That doesn't mean that a UK or S&P500 index is specifically going to have a drop of exactly 50%.

When someone suggested on another thread that we 'must be nearing the bottom soon surely' with FTSE over 6000, I suggested 6000 was well off the mark for being near the bottom but at 4000 it would be more likely to be true.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/76924338#Comment_76924338

Nobody knows what the bottom will be; it certainly wouldn't be impossible for global equities to lose 20% in sterling from this point.

ProDave

I am sensing resistance for the FTSE100 to go below 5000. Each time it does, briefly, by just a little, it comes back up.

IF this trend continues for a few weeks I might just start buying, just a little.

EdGasketTheSecond

There's always resistance levels until they're broken. They are mostly illusory but chartists claim support at certain levels due to historic turnover at those levels.

womble_87

ProDave said:

I am sensing resistance for the FTSE100 to go below 5000. Each time it does, briefly, by just a little, it comes back up.

IF this trend continues for a few weeks I might just start buying, just a little.

Isn't it the case that it is just a yoyo. ie there was "resistance" at 7000 and 6000 and now 5000. It is currently down 5% but could go up or down, but these big drops seem to be slightly bigger than the big increases so it continues to go down over the weeks.

worldtraveller

GBP V USD has just dropped below USD1.20