Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Username999

Search 17,040 United Kingdom jobs

The advertised jobs was over 20,000 just a couple weeks ago.
Be interesting to see how low this will go.
https://www.jobserve.com/gb/en/Job-Search/

ProDave

womble_87 said:

ProDave said:

I am sensing resistance for the FTSE100 to go below 5000. Each time it does, briefly, by just a little, it comes back up.

IF this trend continues for a few weeks I might just start buying, just a little.

Isn't it the case that it is just a yoyo. ie there was "resistance" at 7000 and 6000 and now 5000. It is currently down 5% but could go up or down, but these big drops seem to be slightly bigger than the big increases so it continues to go down over the weeks.

That's why I would want it to be hovering at some resistance point for some time before I started to even think that might be the bottom.

Username999

BREAKING NEWS: IR35 WILL BE DELAYED FOR A YEAR
Yeah! I might go back to work, if there is any.

newatc

bowlhead99 said:

Username999 said:

bowlhead99 said:

Are you saying SP500 is going to 1700 and FTSE100 to 3954?
(sorry I couldn't be bothered reading yet another monologue)

No, I'm not saying that. Certainly a drop of >50% on a broad basket of global equities when measured in your base currency wouldn't be unprecedented, because that's exactly what is shown in the FTSE All-World factsheet covering 2007-2009 linked in some of the posts in the screenshot. It's what you can get with a 100% equities investment strategy.

That doesn't mean that a UK or S&P500 index is specifically going to have a drop of exactly 50%.

When someone suggested on another thread that we 'must be nearing the bottom soon surely' with FTSE over 6000, I suggested 6000 was well off the mark for being near the bottom but at 4000 it would be more likely to be true.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/76924338#Comment_76924338

Nobody knows what the bottom will be; it certainly wouldn't be impossible for global equities to lose 20% in sterling from this point.

What patience you have Bowlhead. I , for one, always try to read your monologues even if I not knowledgeable enough to always understand them completely.

LobsterMemory

masonic said:

masonic said:

2010 said:

masonic said:

2010 said:

Markets don`t rise in a straight line.
They also don`t fall in a straight line.
But it`s pretty obvious the way things are looking at the moment, it`s a downward trend.
Anyone brave enough should sell (if they can) a percentage of their portofolio on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait.
Say what you like, but the indices will be llower later than they are now.
Ftse100 6,462, Dow 25,864 March 6th 2020

Happy to try this experiment with a virtual holding in VWRL. I'll note the price I "sell" on the next rally and wait for your signal to buy it back.

Good show, keep us informed when you sell and for how much, then buy them back later at a cheaper price.
Sounds a bit like short selling.

I now have 3 virtual portfolios open to track how someone would perform if they do as you or others have suggested.

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

Cash: £0

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

Update:

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k (share price 57.19GBP)

Cash: £0

The next rally didn't come earlier this week, perhaps I should sell today or Monday if there are further gains, but it is now unlikely I'll get as good price as for (2) below.

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

Will buy back into the market when the FTSE100 goes below 5000, following 2010's suggestion earlier in the thread.

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k

Am I right in thinking that 2) has been triggered? 
If so, the good thing is that it will beat those of us who stuck. Won't have missed many dividends to reinvest.
However, I doubt that those that sold off are rushing to buy in right now.

masonic

LobsterMemory said:

masonic said:

masonic said:

2010 said:

masonic said:

2010 said:

Markets don`t rise in a straight line.
They also don`t fall in a straight line.
But it`s pretty obvious the way things are looking at the moment, it`s a downward trend.
Anyone brave enough should sell (if they can) a percentage of their portofolio on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait.
Say what you like, but the indices will be llower later than they are now.
Ftse100 6,462, Dow 25,864 March 6th 2020

Happy to try this experiment with a virtual holding in VWRL. I'll note the price I "sell" on the next rally and wait for your signal to buy it back.

Good show, keep us informed when you sell and for how much, then buy them back later at a cheaper price.
Sounds a bit like short selling.

I now have 3 virtual portfolios open to track how someone would perform if they do as you or others have suggested.

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

Cash: £0

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

Update:

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k (share price 57.19GBP)

Cash: £0

The next rally didn't come earlier this week, perhaps I should sell today or Monday if there are further gains, but it is now unlikely I'll get as good price as for (2) below.

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

Will buy back into the market when the FTSE100 goes below 5000, following 2010's suggestion earlier in the thread.

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k

Am I right in thinking that 2) has been triggered? 
If so, the good thing is that it will beat those of us who stuck. Won't have missed many dividends to reinvest.
However, I doubt that those that sold off are rushing to buy in right now.

I put it out to the wisdom of the thread and it seemed there was still further to fall, so I've taken that as a steer to stay out of the market for now. But as this is a virtual portfolio, I've taken the liberty to see how it would have fared, so...

VWRL: Bought 185 @ 55.05GBP, curent Qty 185, current value £10.3k

vs (3) VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.5k

So yes, this approach has beaten those of us who have chosen to hold (I'm holding with my real money), though as someone else has pointed out this difference will likely be insignificant over a 10 year view, and luck is a factor in its success.

Thrugelmir

ProDave said:

I am sensing resistance for the FTSE100 to go below 5000. Each time it does, briefly, by just a little, it comes back up.

IF this trend continues for a few weeks I might just start buying, just a little.

Trackers by their very nature will be reinvesting dividends received back into the market. This will provide support when trading volumes are low. 

masonic

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

I am sensing resistance for the FTSE100 to go below 5000. Each time it does, briefly, by just a little, it comes back up.

IF this trend continues for a few weeks I might just start buying, just a little.

Trackers by their very nature will be reinvesting dividends received back into the market. This will provide support when trading volumes are low. 

Surely like most funds, trackers have Acc and Inc unit classes. It's not whether a fund is active or passive that dictates reinvestment of dividends, it's whether it is distributing or accumulating.

MaxiRobriguez

Many companies won't be in a position to pay dividends.
We're only at the start of this crisis and the markets were far too frothy prior to this anyway. A 30% drop may well only be the half way point. 

Thrugelmir

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

I am sensing resistance for the FTSE100 to go below 5000. Each time it does, briefly, by just a little, it comes back up.

IF this trend continues for a few weeks I might just start buying, just a little.

Trackers by their very nature will be reinvesting dividends received back into the market. This will provide support when trading volumes are low. 

Surely like most funds, trackers have Acc and Inc unit classes. It's not whether a fund is active or passive that dictates reinvestment of dividends, it's whether it is distributing or accumulating.

Trackers (accum) buy the entire market i.e. every stock regardless. Prices will naturally edge upwards when there's large buy orders coming through. Market makers will be aware of who is in the market buying.