Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

bowlhead99

123mat123 said:

Thrugelmir said:

123mat123 said:

Buy an etf. For example if you fancied vls60 put 60% in a global tracker and keep 40% as cash
When things stabilise sell the etf and buy vls60.

ETF's themselves can suffer from wide spreads due to liquidity issues in the marketplace. Someone needs to be willing to buy what you are selling. 

But you get a chance to see and confirm price before committing ? 

Yes, and it's important, as if you don't think carefully about the price you can get screwed by market illiquidity. I attempted to sell an ETF early this morning whose price had been in the low £20s last week and I thought it might open around £20ish given the US rally late Friday afterUK end of day but lots of negative news over the weekend. There was initially no online quote but I wasn't motivated enough to call the broker as it wasn't a huge amount. Eventually around 8.15-8.20 as I refreshed for another quote it gave me one at £15something. If I hadn't been thinking straight I might have just robotically clicked to accept, or maybe panicked and taken it. But a 25% loss from end of UK day Friday on an international index when US markets rose late in their session didn't make sense. I left it a minute and tried again. £20.05. So I took that one.

None of that shenanigans with OEICs, which are dealt at or close to NAV. But inherently less 'tradeable' given you need to give them hours of notice and no chance to decide whether you really want to go ahead after knowing the price.

worldtraveller

CLOSING NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY:

FTSE 100 @ 5,151 - DOWN 33% FROM PEAK

FTSE 250 @ 14,350 - DOWN 35% FROM PEAK

FTSE ALL SHARE @ 2,849 - DOWN 33% FROM PEAK

DOW JONES @ 20,188 - DOWN 32% FROM PEAK

NASDAQ @ 6,904 - DOWN 30% FROM PEAK

Username999

Time for a relief rally IMHO.

Alistair31

Username999 said:

Time for a relief rally IMHO.

With businesses closing indefinitely, left, right and centre ? 

Hard to see it, IMO.

NorthernJoe

The reality of this is only starting to sink in.

Excellent paper from Imperial yesterday seems to prompting government to change direction but the reality is stark

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf



Models based on our current trajectory (US & UK) point to 22 deaths per 100,000 population at it's peak in six weeks time. For a population of 66million, that's roughly 14,000 deaths per day. 

If we introduce fairly draconian measures today then we can reduce the peak to a level where the NHS can actually ventilate the people needing it (red line bottom) by August. It will still be a grim few months with probably 100,000 dead (area under curve) before August. 



But. . . here's the real kicker, having done all that, come August 2020, 98% of the population are still non-immune meaning that any relaxation of restrictions will result in an immediate rebound epidemic. This is the issue China is grappling with currently. 

We are here for the long haul. A year at best.

How many companies will survive that? 

m_c_s

I posted the Imperial College modelling report yesterday and what is clear is that a suppression strategy has significant social and economic cost. But the key message is that measures will be needed until a vaccine is developed. A vaccine will be developed but the economy will need to maintained with cash flow from the Government over the next 6 to 12 months.

womble_87

m_c_s said:

I posted the Imperial College modelling report yesterday and what is clear is that a suppression strategy has significant social and economic cost. But the key message is that measures will be needed until a vaccine is developed. A vaccine will be developed but the economy will need to maintained with cash flow from the Government over the next 6 to 12 months.

They need to sort the testing out otherwise it will cost the economy more. If a person feels ill and stays home, then returns to work but gets ill again, they will have to go home again. If access to the test was easily available one could find out and if positive they would be safe to be out and about after they had recovered, and would not need to keep going home every time they were ill, costing a business more money. There is a private test available for £400, which I suspect some companies will use.

m_c_s

womble_87 said:

They need to sort the testing out otherwise it will cost the economy more. If a person feels ill and stays home, then returns to work but gets ill again, they will have to go home again. If access to the test was easily available one could find out and if positive they would be safe to be out and about after they had recovered, and would not need to keep going home every time they were ill, costing a business more money. There is a private test available for £400, which I suspect some companies will use.

Yes and ofcourse having a test available which shows that someone has previously had the virus will actually become extremely important to enable measures to be effective during and after the peak of the spread in 4 to 6 weeks time.

ForestBluebells

I for one am very worried as I’m in an at risk group. Given the likelihood this will have long term impacts with many businesses closures and job losses, are we now thinking it is best to not invest and keep cash in an easy access savings account until we start to get through this in however long in the time ahead? I have an emergency fund and my job is quite secure. 

BrockStoker

But the key message is that measures will be needed until a vaccine is developed. A vaccine will be developed but the economy will need to maintained with cash flow from the Government over the next 6 to 12 months.
Moderna has already developed a covid-19 specific vaccine and is well ahead of others working on vaccines. It announced that the first volunteer had received a dose yesterday (share price popped nicely) :
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-announces-first-participant-dosed-164200496.html
It would not surprise me if the human trials are sped up, and emergency approval granted in just a few months if the vaccine is safe/effective. Normally it would take a year or two just for the trials.