Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Thrugelmir

drphila said:

Thrugelmir said:

NorthernJoe said:

UK government taking a radically different approach to most other major economies 

Just in a different phase.  There's no understanding yet of why the death rate is accelerating in Italy or Spain. Until there's access to the data that summarises the underlying medical conditions that the unfortunate were suffering from. Impossible to predict what the impact might be in the context of the UK. With only 21 directly related deaths so far. UK data in isolation is too small a sample make extrapolations. 

  Though the rate of increase in cases is remarkably similar in several countries, though not Japan.

see https://www.itv.com/hub/peston/2a4458a0136 at 2.14

Japanese cultural being what it is. The people are self isolating perhaps. Without the need of a stick. 

ossie48

I'm £280 down on £55K worth of VLS 60 and £5k of VLS40 invested in dribs and drabs since Jan 2018.
At one point I was £7K up when I looked. 
Happy to stick with it for the long term Investing monthly. Don't feel any need to add anything extra to my monthly contribution despite having cash hanging around. 
 

worldtraveller

kinger101 said:

worldtraveller said:

I'm basically not interested in reading any 'works' much at all, as my experience of any economists, or fund managers, leaves me cold, as they're all pretty pointless, largely living in some city ivory tower, with little or no experience of what's actually going on in the real world. My investment strategies are largely based on my own life experience, both in, most significantly, my job, and, in a minor way, life in general. Why on earth would you imply that I'm looking for research that just reinforces my own beliefs? I'd frankly rather do my own research, rather than rely on others, and act accordingly!

As pointless as you may find economists and fund managers, basing an investment strategy on "life experience" and "life in general" is clearly no sort of research at all.  Whatever you think of these professions, there's a broad church of opinion in there, and you can't hold a dissenting view from them all.

With respect, I didn't say that my personal investment strategy was based, as you selectively quote, on "life experience" and "life in general". I stated that it was "largely" based on, "my own life experience, both in, most significantly, my job, and, in a minor way, life in general". FYI I've worked in international commerce for over 40 years and speak with other people around the world every day. That's the "significant" part of my personal research, which has suited me personally, rather than listening to the likes of economists. Clearly, everyone has their own views, these are mine, and which have worked for me, with my own investments to date. :-:smile:

HHarry

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

It might seem harsh but it seems the people who are dying are generally in the later stage of their life anyway with other accumulated conditions and is it really worth damaging the economy into a depression for the next generations?

And if were to be your family members that were to die before their time?  

My Wife’s Grandma is one of the 21 deaths so far.  And all of a sudden the fall in my portfolio and the optimum time to top up are insignificant.

coastline

kinger101 said:

coastline said:

We have a fair bit of daylight with that massive reversal late Friday. Pretty common for this to happen in US when the rest of the world markets have closed hours ago. Thursdays low of 2478 wasn't hit and now we stand at 2711 so around 10% off the low. 
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PR1qawgv4Wo/XmvqnqqutEI/AAAAAAAB1LQ/i_bhjwXwD1seLgyoLHdp5SpaSbF40-qwwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spdaily5b+mar13.png
On a weekly view you can see all the candle tails at the correction points over the last few years. So maybe we have a bit of hope. Lets face it why do we want the markets to crash its bad enough as it is.?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cRNJKDrEf5k/XmvuSogu_gI/AAAAAAAB1Lo/vibYDBXZdIUdScPqgiU1Bs9jb03S76o5wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spx+w+mar13.png
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YbboBjiVqCY/XmvutmAsVaI/AAAAAAAB1L0/KpP4IT9BtvkGqUyqIOaREarklTGjJnD6ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/dow+w+mar13.png

Mystic Meg is back.  

There's no predictions in any of my posts just pointing out a few things related to history of market corrections. Most end with a huge reversal rally which usually can be seen on a daily chart. Candlestick charts show this well with the Open, Close, High and Low points on each candle. If a chart had shown 15 days of straight down solid candles then it couldn't be suggested there might be a turnaround. Nobody knows what will happen as the daily news is changing that fast.
Posted this a while ago and again it relates to short term history. When the market gets to around 10% above the 200 day moving average there's a hint the rally could end with a bang. I think this time it got to 12% above.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EL6feCqWoAAHSjh.png:large
I'm sitting here all cash but I wouldn't want a wipe out as its no good to anybody. Here's hoping for better news this week. Good luck to all.

EdGasketTheSecond

I don't get what that chart is supposed to be saying, can you elaborate please?

Also a chart like that can't factor in the US travel bans or Trump announcing an emergency and a 10% rally on Wall ST. late on Friday.

Why are you all in cash if the chart shows 12% above (last time 10% that 'ended in a bang'; do you mean it all collapsed or was a really good rally?

coastline

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I don't get what that chart is supposed to be saying, can you elaborate please?

Also a chart like that can't factor in the US travel bans or Trump announcing an emergency and a 10% rally on Wall ST. late on Friday.

Why are you all in cash if the chart shows 12% above (last time 10% that 'ended in a bang'; do you mean it all collapsed or was a really good rally?

Exactly a chart can't factor in such events . All this information has been gathered over the decades and highlighted on many blogs and websites . In this case its looking at market reaction to being around 10% above the 200 day moving average. The information shows at these points the possibility of a correction is high that's all. Nobody is predicting anything just showing how things have unfolded in the past. I sold everything a while ago so that was my bit of luck . I'm no longer a buy and hold investor.    
Best I can find to illustrate the point.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/this-sell-off-is-unlike-any-in-market-history?post=165292

EdGasketTheSecond

Well they got that wrong; the link predicts (as of 8th Feb) a local 'bottom' after the 10% sell off and higher prices in the coming months. Sorry still none the wiser.

coastline

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Well they got that wrong; the link predicts (as of 8th Feb) a local 'bottom' after the 10% sell off and higher prices in the coming months. Sorry still none the wiser.

The link is Feb 8 2018 its at the top of the page. Here is a chart of that period and a nice long tail end on the candle early February. Just what I've been saying in many posts. Candles with reversals hint at recovery not fact just a possibility.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73462683741&a=226295826&listNum=1

Alexland

Hmm, just noticed the pound has dropped down to around 1.22 USD in recent days which should soften the impact of the market decline for UK investors. I am starting to wonder if we will get an opportunity as good as last week again.