Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Thrugelmir

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Maybe the UK's stance is to resolve the pension hole and social care problem on the cheap.

Crash in markets has cost DB schemes around a £150bn. Pension funding will come before dividends for investors. 

masonic

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

There's no understanding yet of why the death rate is accelerating in Italy or Spain. Until there's access to the data that summarises the underlying medical conditions that the unfortunate were suffering from. Impossible to predict what the impact might be in the context of the UK. With only 21 directly related deaths so far. UK data in isolation is too small a sample make extrapolations. 

I'd go further - any death rate estimate is currently quite meaningless, since the denominator is not known. There is clearly a lot of community transmission going on that suggests confirmed cases are a massive underestimate of the true number infected.

Number of reported infections is no longer relevant either. Many people aren't going to be aware that they've even had it. 

Yes, that was essentially the point I was trying to make. With countries like ours advising people not even to alert anyone unless their symptoms get severe, there will be no reliable statistics.

I would imagine that the NHS would prefer to focus their limited resources on those that actually need treatment. 

The NHS should do just that. What I'm suggesting is that the Government allocates some money to providing support to those who are, for example, unable to go out and buy food for fear of coming into contact with the infected. Money thrown at the NHS will have limited impact for the very reason that it takes time for money to translate into greater resources to treat people. Hospitals, beds and staff can't just be created on demand. If the people most likely to become seriously ill are protected from the virus, fewer resources will be needed.

Thrugelmir

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

There's no understanding yet of why the death rate is accelerating in Italy or Spain. Until there's access to the data that summarises the underlying medical conditions that the unfortunate were suffering from. Impossible to predict what the impact might be in the context of the UK. With only 21 directly related deaths so far. UK data in isolation is too small a sample make extrapolations. 

I'd go further - any death rate estimate is currently quite meaningless, since the denominator is not known. There is clearly a lot of community transmission going on that suggests confirmed cases are a massive underestimate of the true number infected.

Number of reported infections is no longer relevant either. Many people aren't going to be aware that they've even had it. 

Yes, that was essentially the point I was trying to make. With countries like ours advising people not even to alert anyone unless their symptoms get severe, there will be no reliable statistics.

I would imagine that the NHS would prefer to focus their limited resources on those that actually need treatment. 

What I'm suggesting is that the Government allocates some money to providing support to those who are, for example, unable to go out and buy food for fear of coming into contact with the infected. 

If money were paid out on the basis of fear. The entire UK population would remain in doors. 
Myself included. 

masonic

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

There's no understanding yet of why the death rate is accelerating in Italy or Spain. Until there's access to the data that summarises the underlying medical conditions that the unfortunate were suffering from. Impossible to predict what the impact might be in the context of the UK. With only 21 directly related deaths so far. UK data in isolation is too small a sample make extrapolations. 

I'd go further - any death rate estimate is currently quite meaningless, since the denominator is not known. There is clearly a lot of community transmission going on that suggests confirmed cases are a massive underestimate of the true number infected.

Number of reported infections is no longer relevant either. Many people aren't going to be aware that they've even had it. 

Yes, that was essentially the point I was trying to make. With countries like ours advising people not even to alert anyone unless their symptoms get severe, there will be no reliable statistics.

I would imagine that the NHS would prefer to focus their limited resources on those that actually need treatment. 

What I'm suggesting is that the Government allocates some money to providing support to those who are, for example, unable to go out and buy food for fear of coming into contact with the infected. 

If money were paid out on the basis of fear. The entire UK population would remain in doors. 
Myself included. 

For the avoidance of doubt, my suggestion that they should be "providing support to at risk groups", I was not thinking of hypochondriacs or the lazy

We know which age group, and which pre-existing health conditions, would put people at the greatest risk. If those people were to self isolate, rather than all those who are otherwise fit and healthy, perhaps the Government could reach it's 60% target infection rate with less impact on the economy and NHS.

coastline

We have a fair bit of daylight with that massive reversal late Friday. Pretty common for this to happen in US when the rest of the world markets have closed hours ago. Thursdays low of 2478 wasn't hit and now we stand at 2711 so around 10% off the low. 
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PR1qawgv4Wo/XmvqnqqutEI/AAAAAAAB1LQ/i_bhjwXwD1seLgyoLHdp5SpaSbF40-qwwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spdaily5b+mar13.png
On a weekly view you can see all the candle tails at the correction points over the last few years. So maybe we have a bit of hope. Lets face it why do we want the markets to crash its bad enough as it is.?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cRNJKDrEf5k/XmvuSogu_gI/AAAAAAAB1Lo/vibYDBXZdIUdScPqgiU1Bs9jb03S76o5wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spx+w+mar13.png
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YbboBjiVqCY/XmvutmAsVaI/AAAAAAAB1L0/KpP4IT9BtvkGqUyqIOaREarklTGjJnD6ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/dow+w+mar13.png

Thrugelmir

coastline said:

 Lets face it why do we want the markets to crash its bad enough as it is.?

Nothing to do with want. One can only surf the waves that come along as an investor.  On a personal level I know the distress that is caused to people when companies go under or you have to tell people they are redundant. Life is brutal at times. 

Alexland

The world's media have started noticing the UK's more considered approach to this problem. Similar to investing it takes courage to monitor the situation and suppress the natural urge to do something to limit loss which may eventually make things worse.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/13/uk/uk-coronavirus-response-boris-johnson-intl-gbr/index.html

I also read somewhere the UK have computer simulated what will happen if the peak happens too early or too late this year and are working towards that optimum outcome. Being contrarian is a risk but its a lot better than adhoc politically motivated reactionary decisions we have seen in other countries.

drphila

Thrugelmir said:

NorthernJoe said:

UK government taking a radically different approach to most other major economies 

Just in a different phase.  There's no understanding yet of why the death rate is accelerating in Italy or Spain. Until there's access to the data that summarises the underlying medical conditions that the unfortunate were suffering from. Impossible to predict what the impact might be in the context of the UK. With only 21 directly related deaths so far. UK data in isolation is too small a sample make extrapolations. 

  Though the rate of increase in cases is remarkably similar in several countries, though not Japan.

see https://www.itv.com/hub/peston/2a4458a0136 at 2.14

kinger101

worldtraveller said:

I'm basically not interested in reading any 'works' much at all, as my experience of any economists, or fund managers, leaves me cold, as they're all pretty pointless, largely living in some city ivory tower, with little or no experience of what's actually going on in the real world. My investment strategies are largely based on my own life experience, both in, most significantly, my job, and, in a minor way, life in general. Why on earth would you imply that I'm looking for research that just reinforces my own beliefs? I'd frankly rather do my own research, rather than rely on others, and act accordingly!

As pointless as you may find economists and fund managers, basing an investment strategy on "life experience" and "life in general" is clearly no sort of research at all.  Whatever you think of these professions, there's a broad church of opinion in there, and you can't hold a dissenting view from them all.

kinger101

coastline said:

We have a fair bit of daylight with that massive reversal late Friday. Pretty common for this to happen in US when the rest of the world markets have closed hours ago. Thursdays low of 2478 wasn't hit and now we stand at 2711 so around 10% off the low. 
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PR1qawgv4Wo/XmvqnqqutEI/AAAAAAAB1LQ/i_bhjwXwD1seLgyoLHdp5SpaSbF40-qwwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spdaily5b+mar13.png
On a weekly view you can see all the candle tails at the correction points over the last few years. So maybe we have a bit of hope. Lets face it why do we want the markets to crash its bad enough as it is.?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cRNJKDrEf5k/XmvuSogu_gI/AAAAAAAB1Lo/vibYDBXZdIUdScPqgiU1Bs9jb03S76o5wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spx+w+mar13.png
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YbboBjiVqCY/XmvutmAsVaI/AAAAAAAB1L0/KpP4IT9BtvkGqUyqIOaREarklTGjJnD6ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/dow+w+mar13.png

Mystic Meg is back.