Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Thrugelmir

123mat123 said:

worldtraveller said:

DairyQueen said:

So, are the market timers ready to pounce yet?

Yup, as planned, I've dipped my toes back in this morning, in a planned, measured way, using a FTSE All Share Index tracker fund, as it's now down 20% from recent peak, my scheduled start point.

It's the first time I have done this, so have weathered through various financial crises in the past, but this is not a financial crisis.

What's different? The impact will be financial. Nor have we fully recovered from the last one. During the GFC most people were sheltered from the extent of the damage. 

Thrugelmir

123mat123 said:

Other major resultant issues are now emerging, for example, China's shutdown created excess of oil, so price drops, Saudi Arabia is dependent on oil $ to survive, so when price reduces they increase volume to pay for their internal government programs. (ie they compensate for lower margin through larger volume, when you have unlimited oil why not) - So Russia reduce their prices to compete...
...Remains to be seen what happens when the price of oil goes lower than the price of shale gas in the US, we could find out soon...
On the plus side cheaper oil has many positive benefits to other industries and individuals

There was no agreement on cutting output as has been the case in the past. Easy for US shale producers to simply turn off the wells. 

bostonerimus

Thrugelmir said:

123mat123 said:

Other major resultant issues are now emerging, for example, China's shutdown created excess of oil, so price drops, Saudi Arabia is dependent on oil $ to survive, so when price reduces they increase volume to pay for their internal government programs. (ie they compensate for lower margin through larger volume, when you have unlimited oil why not) - So Russia reduce their prices to compete...
...Remains to be seen what happens when the price of oil goes lower than the price of shale gas in the US, we could find out soon...
On the plus side cheaper oil has many positive benefits to other industries and individuals

There was no agreement on cutting output as has been the case in the past. Easy for US shale producers to simply turn off the wells. 

Places like Williston ND are in a perpetual boom and bust cycle that goes with oil price. If the prices fall it's just not economical to take the oil out of the ground and loads of people lose their jobs...and then they lose their houses. If it makes people sit up and re-examine the world and their politicians without the rose tinted glasses of a rising stock market then there might be something good that comes out of it. then again something very bad might result.

JustAnotherSaver

Well if this is my first ‘test’ in investing as to whether I get jittery then it isn’t making a difference to me so far. 

Fed up hearing about this coronavirus. Go to work, come home, put the radio on, out the tv on, it’s all anyone is talking about. 
Im not going overboard with toilet roll and the like. I’m living my life as I was before I ever heard of this coronavirus. If I get it I get it, if I don’t then I don’t. I won’t be changing a thing that I do and that includes my investments. 

Hopefully this outlook will will be the right one. Maybe it won’t be. One way or another I’ll find out. I can guarantee you one thing though & that’s that I’m not going to obsess over this thing like so many others. 

Ciprico

Thrugelmir said:

123mat123 said:

Other major resultant issues are now emerging, for example, China's shutdown created excess of oil, so price drops, Saudi Arabia is dependent on oil $ to survive, so when price reduces they increase volume to pay for their internal government programs. (ie they compensate for lower margin through larger volume, when you have unlimited oil why not) - So Russia reduce their prices to compete...
...Remains to be seen what happens when the price of oil goes lower than the price of shale gas in the US, we could find out soon...
On the plus side cheaper oil has many positive benefits to other industries and individuals

There was no agreement on cutting output as has been the case in the past. Easy for US shale producers to simply turn off the wells. 

I understand there is a lot of investment from US pension funds in shale companies - looking for sustainable returns on their investments. They, and other investors, won't be too happy for the dividends/wells to simply be turned off....

Reaper

Well I put my money where my mouth is and made my first substantial purchase of Aviva today. You might think it odd to invest in an insurer who could be paying out on travel, business and life insurance but having read up on it I don't think the claims will be excessive. On the plus side they are now paying a spectacular and well covered 9.9% dividend, have a big cash pile to fall back on and last week they announced their biggest ever profit. With the market pricing them well below their Net Asset Value this doesn't feel like a high risk play.

I fully accept I am unlikely to have timed the bottom of the market but it seems too good an opportunity to miss.

RomfordNavy

Do you realise that worldwide, using yesterdays numbers, Sars-CoV-2 has killed just 0.06% of the number that have died from Flu this season.

EdGasketTheSecond

Won't AV. also be hit with flood claims?

I agree it is currently looking oversold.

Zorillo

I lost my nerve and bought today. 

Thrugelmir

123mat123 said:

Thrugelmir said:

123mat123 said:

Other major resultant issues are now emerging, for example, China's shutdown created excess of oil, so price drops, Saudi Arabia is dependent on oil $ to survive, so when price reduces they increase volume to pay for their internal government programs. (ie they compensate for lower margin through larger volume, when you have unlimited oil why not) - So Russia reduce their prices to compete...
...Remains to be seen what happens when the price of oil goes lower than the price of shale gas in the US, we could find out soon...
On the plus side cheaper oil has many positive benefits to other industries and individuals

There was no agreement on cutting output as has been the case in the past. Easy for US shale producers to simply turn off the wells. 

I understand there is a lot of investment from US pension funds in shale companies - looking for sustainable returns on their investments. They, and other investors, won't be too happy for the dividends/wells to simply be turned off....

When the price rises again, as it inevitably will. Then pumping will recommence. Why sell at a loss?  At a loss there's no dividend to distribute. To pay dividends companies need to be cash generative not just profitable. Oil is a capital intensive industry.  Debt repayments will take priority.