Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

BananaRepublic

I also hope the markets have priced in the upcoming recession. At present 25% of UK workers are furloughed. That’s a lot. The end of furloughing will be interesting times. The current market levels are weird, or maybe I’m missing something. 

I wish I’d bought shares in inline skate makers. 

Stargunner

kinger101 said

Sometimes it's better to have bet red rather than black too.  It's inevitable one makes decisions which turn out in hindsight to be bad.  Who's to say a better fund would have been picked if it was sold.

We have all probably picked poor performing funds at some time, but it doesn’t mean that we have to stick with them.
A bit of research will show many funds with consistently good returns over the short, medium and long term. Performance figures for Schroder UK public private trust are
YTD -25%

1year -62%

5 Years -72%

 It even lost 6% today when the markets were up.

masonic

Stargunner said:

A bit of research will show many funds with consistently good returns over the short, medium and long term. Performance figures for Schroder UK public private trust are
YTD -25%

1year -62%

5 Years -72%

 It even lost 6% today when the markets were up.

Perhaps you are unaware of the history of this fund and what it invests in. One wouldn't expect its performance to be in any way related to the markets. Whether it is worth selling now at a 50% loss, or even a 72% loss is not a decision to be made just on the basis of past performance, rather it should be assessed based on your opinion of its present suitability and future prospects. It is not exactly a core holding, so any further loss potential is very limited, while it is possible to take a view on the underlying holdings and whether their value is reflected in the current price - not wishing to reignite any debate over that here!

kinger101

Stargunner said:

kinger101 said

Sometimes it's better to have bet red rather than black too.  It's inevitable one makes decisions which turn out in hindsight to be bad.  Who's to say a better fund would have been picked if it was sold.

We have all probably picked poor performing funds at some time, but it doesn’t mean that we have to stick with them.
A bit of research will show many funds with consistently good returns over the short, medium and long term. Performance figures for Schroder UK public private trust are
YTD -25%

1year -62%

5 Years -72%

 It even lost 6% today when the markets were up.

The fund hasn't been going enough for long term data. But based on Brockstoker's loss, it looks like it's been held less than a year.  Not something I'd pick as it's far too concentrated, but perhaps Brock sees value in some of the underlying holdings (especially at the discount).

Anyone can go on trustnet and find old winners.  Doesn't guarantee future peformance.

Thrugelmir

Stargunner said:

kinger101 said

Sometimes it's better to have bet red rather than black too.  It's inevitable one makes decisions which turn out in hindsight to be bad.  Who's to say a better fund would have been picked if it was sold.

We have all probably picked poor performing funds at some time, but it doesn’t mean that we have to stick with them.
A bit of research will show many funds with consistently good returns over the short, medium and long term. Performance figures for Schroder UK public private trust are
YTD -25%

1year -62%

5 Years -72%

 It even lost 6% today when the markets were up.

Will be suffering from the Woodford stock overhang. With Woodford out of the market there's little not huge appetite for high risk early stage investing in the UK. People prefer established names over backing tomorrow's stars. For all Woodford's faults he did care about the start-up sector. 

Jackthedog

Just seen this thread. I largely liquidated my substantial portfolio during early March based on the chart trends and gut feeling. I invested it in late March in alt energy stocks such as bsif trig etc which were on Stupidly huge discounts to nav.  These shot up to a good premium in short order and I sold out again and went long on a wider range with an emphasis on non uk stock (and a few housebuilders).  Currently well above ( +6%) Dec 19 level with lots of upside in the stuff I hold.  If I had followed the hold advice I would have still been 20% down. My approach is not for everyone but did work for the liquid stocks I use.
The issue For me is not timing but reading the market, and although not a chartist I can read a trend!

Prism

Jackthedog said:

Just seen this thread. I largely liquidated my substantial portfolio during early March based on the chart trends and gut feeling. I invested it in late March in alt energy stocks such as bsif trig etc which were on Stupidly huge discounts to nav.  These shot up to a good premium in short order and I sold out again and went long on a wider range with an emphasis on non uk stock (and a few housebuilders).  Currently well above ( +6%) Dec 19 level with lots of upside in the stuff I hold.  If I had followed the hold advice I would have still been 20% down. My approach is not for everyone but did work for the liquid stocks I use.
The issue For me is not timing but reading the market, and although not a chartist I can read a trend!

What that seems to say to me is that if you would have been 20% down still at this point you were not invested in an especially balanced way. I have done absolutely nothing with my SIPP (except for a few payments in which I'm not counting) and my portfolio is also at about 6% up since the start of the year. You don't need to time the market as you say, or even try and read trends. Doing nothing is usually the right thing to do assuming your investments are already sound. Sounds like this time though your strategy worked well enough.

Sailtheworld

Sailtheworld said:

At the three month anniversary of this thread I thought I'd see what the position would be of someone liquidating their entire portfolio and buying gold until the 'virus was over'.

Assuming VWRL is a proxy for a well diversified portfolio anyone selling up £100k worth at the start of March and buying gold would currently be sat on gold worth £111,910k. Anyone who just stuck with VWRL would be sat on VWRL shares worth £99,776. There was a dividend in March but both the liquidator and holder will have got that so it has been ignored.

Obviously the liquidator is taking far more risk and all the difference is from gold - as of today they can't buy back into the market at the same price they sold.

I'm sure the liquidator wasn't expecting to see markets at these levels when planning but so far so good.

What a difference a few days makes.

The liquidator of a well diversified portfolio (VRWL proxy) who sold gold is looking at gold worth £105,000 and the holder of that well diversified portfolio is at £103,000.  Still ahead but I know which one is sleeping most soundly.

Sailtheworld

Jackthedog said:

Just seen this thread. I largely liquidated my substantial portfolio during early March based on the chart trends and gut feeling. I invested it in late March in alt energy stocks such as bsif trig etc which were on Stupidly huge discounts to nav.  These shot up to a good premium in short order and I sold out again and went long on a wider range with an emphasis on non uk stock (and a few housebuilders).  Currently well above ( +6%) Dec 19 level with lots of upside in the stuff I hold.  If I had followed the hold advice I would have still been 20% down. My approach is not for everyone but did work for the liquid stocks I use.
The issue For me is not timing but reading the market, and although not a chartist I can read a trend!

If you had a well diversified portfolio you'd be up on December with less stress, lower risk, zero effort and without the need to be able to read trends. 

Jackthedog

Lol.  My original positions were ‘classically’ diversified across all sectors... more the pity as pretty well every sector was battered by the downturn.  Oh and yes my estimate 20% down is probably an exaggeration ... I will check.  Having traded the fastest rising rebound stocks to make some serious cash I bought into slower risers that were only just starting to move up.  

True am only 6.6%  as of 29th May versus December 19 (I haven’t checked this weeks gains yet)
But as a result of getting out early and in again around the bottom I have a very large number of additional quality shares that I can go long on with on average 20%+ price upside before they even hit their former 1 year average price. The other upside will be cash from dividends on these additional shares  in the next 12 months.

This type of strategy not for everyone I guess but these market shocks only come round every few years and you have to be fast footed to use them to your advantage.