Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

I have given up trying to understand the markets. I base my investment decisions on what the markets are doing, even if it appears the markets are oblivious of the facts.

The markets are forward looking , the inherent danger currently is that something happens to burst the bubble of optimism. Unfortunately money alone cannot provide the neccessary answers to the current crisis. 

One cannot help but feel that China is the wolf in sheeps clothing. Trade war with the USA. When certain EU member states were looking after themselves with PPE, was China that stepped in to help Italy and Spain. Now the Hong Kong issue. Drip drip drip......

China:

1. claims Taiwan as part of the PRC and does not recognise the democratically elected government of Taiwan.
2. is building islands in the South China Sea and using them to extend its territorial claims, using its navy to threaten other countries who dispute its bogus claims.
3. has built concentration camps packed full of Uighur Muslims, and sent ethnic Chinese into the homes of Uighurs to watch over them.
4. has created a massive surveillance system that surpasses the vision of George Orwell's 1984.

Premier Xi has built a cult of personality around himself and we all know what that can lead to. He is creating a totalitarian state of the worst kind. One could argue that the so called capitalism adopted by China is no more than a way for it to increase is economic and military power.

The One Belt One Road initiative continues unabated. 

Sailtheworld

homestraight said:

Hi all
Following this and other thread with interest. 
Im a passive, buy and hold global multi asset tracker type investor. 
I invest full s&s is allowance each year. Sometimes lump. Sometimes drip. Sometimes buy on the dips, sometimes not. 

I now have this years full isa allowance available to invest in my usual holding. 
Any thoughts on whether to 1. Go all in now and invest the lump sum, 2. Drip monthly,  wait and hold out, 4. Some other mix or option...

Thanks
Hs

The markets could just as easily go down for 8 straight weeks from here and waiting would have been best. Or go up for another 8 weeks and getting in tomorrow would have been best.

This thread is a nice reminder that nobody is much good at predicting the future. You won't know which option is best until after the event. I'd buy the full amount now and forget about it - looking out for dips sounds like a bit of an effort.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

I have given up trying to understand the markets. I base my investment decisions on what the markets are doing, even if it appears the markets are oblivious of the facts.

The markets are forward looking , the inherent danger currently is that something happens to burst the bubble of optimism. Unfortunately money alone cannot provide the neccessary answers to the current crisis. 

One cannot help but feel that China is the wolf in sheeps clothing. Trade war with the USA. When certain EU member states were looking after themselves with PPE, was China that stepped in to help Italy and Spain. Now the Hong Kong issue. Drip drip drip......

China:

1. claims Taiwan as part of the PRC and does not recognise the democratically elected government of Taiwan.
2. is building islands in the South China Sea and using them to extend its territorial claims, using its navy to threaten other countries who dispute its bogus claims.
3. has built concentration camps packed full of Uighur Muslims, and sent ethnic Chinese into the homes of Uighurs to watch over them.
4. has created a massive surveillance system that surpasses the vision of George Orwell's 1984.

Premier Xi has built a cult of personality around himself and we all know what that can lead to. He is creating a totalitarian state of the worst kind. One could argue that the so called capitalism adopted by China is no more than a way for it to increase is economic and military power.

The One Belt One Road initiative continues unabated. 

How does this inform a saving and investing strategy?

We must surely know by now the difficulties of predicting the future. As far as China is concerned there are a multitude of different futures all of which may change based on other events over time. It's like throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded when the dartboard is in another room.

Everyone's risk assessment has to take into account that there are known unknowns.

BananaRepublic

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

I have given up trying to understand the markets. I base my investment decisions on what the markets are doing, even if it appears the markets are oblivious of the facts.

The markets are forward looking , the inherent danger currently is that something happens to burst the bubble of optimism. Unfortunately money alone cannot provide the neccessary answers to the current crisis. 

One cannot help but feel that China is the wolf in sheeps clothing. Trade war with the USA. When certain EU member states were looking after themselves with PPE, was China that stepped in to help Italy and Spain. Now the Hong Kong issue. Drip drip drip......

China:

1. claims Taiwan as part of the PRC and does not recognise the democratically elected government of Taiwan.
2. is building islands in the South China Sea and using them to extend its territorial claims, using its navy to threaten other countries who dispute its bogus claims.
3. has built concentration camps packed full of Uighur Muslims, and sent ethnic Chinese into the homes of Uighurs to watch over them.
4. has created a massive surveillance system that surpasses the vision of George Orwell's 1984.

Premier Xi has built a cult of personality around himself and we all know what that can lead to. He is creating a totalitarian state of the worst kind. One could argue that the so called capitalism adopted by China is no more than a way for it to increase is economic and military power.

The One Belt One Road initiative continues unabated. 

How does this inform a saving and investing strategy?

We must surely know by now the difficulties of predicting the future. As far as China is concerned there are a multitude of different futures all of which may change based on other events over time. It's like throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded when the dartboard is in another room.

Everyone's risk assessment has to take into account that there are known unknowns.

Massive investment in transportation infrastructure has huge implications for investors. The ability to steamroller through new road, rail and shipping links is a big advantage over democratic countries such as India. 

Sailtheworld

BananaRepublic said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

I have given up trying to understand the markets. I base my investment decisions on what the markets are doing, even if it appears the markets are oblivious of the facts.

The markets are forward looking , the inherent danger currently is that something happens to burst the bubble of optimism. Unfortunately money alone cannot provide the neccessary answers to the current crisis. 

One cannot help but feel that China is the wolf in sheeps clothing. Trade war with the USA. When certain EU member states were looking after themselves with PPE, was China that stepped in to help Italy and Spain. Now the Hong Kong issue. Drip drip drip......

China:

1. claims Taiwan as part of the PRC and does not recognise the democratically elected government of Taiwan.
2. is building islands in the South China Sea and using them to extend its territorial claims, using its navy to threaten other countries who dispute its bogus claims.
3. has built concentration camps packed full of Uighur Muslims, and sent ethnic Chinese into the homes of Uighurs to watch over them.
4. has created a massive surveillance system that surpasses the vision of George Orwell's 1984.

Premier Xi has built a cult of personality around himself and we all know what that can lead to. He is creating a totalitarian state of the worst kind. One could argue that the so called capitalism adopted by China is no more than a way for it to increase is economic and military power.

The One Belt One Road initiative continues unabated. 

How does this inform a saving and investing strategy?

We must surely know by now the difficulties of predicting the future. As far as China is concerned there are a multitude of different futures all of which may change based on other events over time. It's like throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded when the dartboard is in another room.

Everyone's risk assessment has to take into account that there are known unknowns.

Massive investment in transportation infrastructure has huge implications for investors. The ability to steamroller through new road, rail and shipping links is a big advantage over democratic countries such as India. 

I've spent many hours on bullet trains travelling around China and you can see evidence of this but I'm not sure it helps make investment decisions. On the one hand there's a totalitarian state with a cult leader and, on the other, they get stuff done.

LHW99

Everyone's risk assessment has to take into account that there are known unknowns.

Unfortunately its the unknown unknowns that get you ........

homestraight

homestraight said:

Hi all
Following this and other thread with interest. 
Im a passive, buy and hold global multi asset tracker type investor. 
I invest full s&s is allowance each year. Sometimes lump. Sometimes drip. Sometimes buy on the dips, sometimes not. 

I now have this years full isa allowance available to invest in my usual holding. 
Any thoughts on whether to 1. Go all in now and invest the lump sum, 2. Drip monthly,  wait and hold out, 4. Some other mix or option...

Thanks
Hs

Thanks to those of you who have offered advice
I'll crack on.

consciousobservation

How's everyone been doing over the last few months? Interesting to revisit this thread with some hindsight.
Since the market crash I've been drip feeding in my usual monthly amount on a weekly basis (probably averaging about 5 x "normal" contributions as some of them have been higher). In hindsight, I should have put more in at the start as I still have too much in cash and the price seems to be recovering well. However, I think it's unlikely to be a continuous road to recovery so hopefully there will be at least one more opportunity to chuck some lumps in.

Thrugelmir

After such an exceptional unexpected bounce back. Time to sit on my hands and allow cash to build. Markets can be savage places. All that's required is an event to spook investors and the herd will be heading to the exits. There's a lot of retail money being speculated in the markets rather than being invested. Those immortally expensive four words are in the fore front of my mind as gut instinct kicks in.........  This Time Is Different.  

Sailtheworld

I made a full year's sipp contribution in early April targeting 70% VWRL / 30% VGOV. Currently saving up next year's contribution to do the same. Expecting unexpected things to happen between now and then.

The only real nod to Covid is a lower mortgage overpayment than I might've made preferring to hold a little bit of extra cash than usual.