Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

quirkydeptless

coyrls said:

justme111 said:

" I have a dilemma - I got a windfall of 40 k and I do not know what to do with it ".

Quandary is a good under used word.

Is it better to use quandary or dilemma? That's quite a conundrum

Shedman

That's nearly 3 pages now without mention of buying gold..oops spoilt it 😂

Just_a_person

kinger101 said:

(a) the fact the share price just shot up massively.  Markets respond every moment they're open.
(b) I don't think you know the difference between antibody and antigen testing, but the PCR tests made by Novacyt for are for viral RNA.  Which is neither of these.  They're bit players compared to the likes of Roche, Qiagen, NEB, Thermofisher, BioRad and IDT.
(c) Most profits in these sorts of things are in IP.  Most jurisdictions can over-ride patents in national emergencies.  Stuff will mostly be sold at cost.  There's a long-lasting benefit to the company, but it's intangible.

By all means buy Omega Diagnostics tomorrow, but the chances you'll be able to execute a purchase the moment the market opens is slim.  Difficult to buy yesterday's good news.

Thats nice, but as has been highlighted you are the one that doesnt understand the difference.
Anyhow, I did indeed miss the boat for Omega but invested a modest speculatory amount in Genedrive based on their low market cap and the antigen tests that they are working on. I am up a not too shabby 27% already.

ProDave

FTSE100 has just gone back above 6000

Looks like the markets are factoring in a gradual return to work and believing the worst is over already.

It would not surprise me if it all crashes again if any countries easing of lockdown goes wrong, or later when companies start failing.

Sailtheworld

Being able to determine what daily index movements mean for the long term isn't easy. Bloomberg TV have a non-stop procession of people amply demonstrating this. Let's face it - if any of them possessed the skill of being able to interpret daily stock market movements why the hell do they have to get up at 4am to share this skill?

kinger101

Just_a_person said:

kinger101 said:

(a) the fact the share price just shot up massively.  Markets respond every moment they're open.
(b) I don't think you know the difference between antibody and antigen testing, but the PCR tests made by Novacyt for are for viral RNA.  Which is neither of these.  They're bit players compared to the likes of Roche, Qiagen, NEB, Thermofisher, BioRad and IDT.
(c) Most profits in these sorts of things are in IP.  Most jurisdictions can over-ride patents in national emergencies.  Stuff will mostly be sold at cost.  There's a long-lasting benefit to the company, but it's intangible.

By all means buy Omega Diagnostics tomorrow, but the chances you'll be able to execute a purchase the moment the market opens is slim.  Difficult to buy yesterday's good news.

Thats nice, but as has been highlighted you are the one that doesnt understand the difference.
Anyhow, I did indeed miss the boat for Omega but invested a modest speculatory amount in Genedrive based on their low market cap and the antigen tests that they are working on. I am up a not too shabby 27% already.

It's not been highlighted at all.  
Did you read the last set of interim accounts?
http://www.genedriveplc.com/company-reports/GenedriveInterimReport2020.pdf
Do you understand the implications of have about 8 months operating expenses left?  What do you plan to do with these shares?

Just_a_person

kinger101 said:

Just_a_person said:

kinger101 said:

(a) the fact the share price just shot up massively.  Markets respond every moment they're open.
(b) I don't think you know the difference between antibody and antigen testing, but the PCR tests made by Novacyt for are for viral RNA.  Which is neither of these.  They're bit players compared to the likes of Roche, Qiagen, NEB, Thermofisher, BioRad and IDT.
(c) Most profits in these sorts of things are in IP.  Most jurisdictions can over-ride patents in national emergencies.  Stuff will mostly be sold at cost.  There's a long-lasting benefit to the company, but it's intangible.

By all means buy Omega Diagnostics tomorrow, but the chances you'll be able to execute a purchase the moment the market opens is slim.  Difficult to buy yesterday's good news.

Thats nice, but as has been highlighted you are the one that doesnt understand the difference.
Anyhow, I did indeed miss the boat for Omega but invested a modest speculatory amount in Genedrive based on their low market cap and the antigen tests that they are working on. I am up a not too shabby 27% already.

It's not been highlighted at all.  
Did you read the last set of interim accounts?
http://www.genedriveplc.com/company-reports/GenedriveInterimReport2020.pdf
Do you understand the implications of have about 8 months operating expenses left?  What do you plan to do with these shares?

None of the above particulary relevant for a momentum play if you can read the technicals. Anyhow after going in on Tuesday morning and out this afternoon I take away 53% profit. Probably got a little further to run based on charting but the baloon will eventually pop. Put the money back into one of my long term oilies.

kinger101

Just_a_person said:

kinger101 said:

Just_a_person said:

kinger101 said:

(a) the fact the share price just shot up massively.  Markets respond every moment they're open.
(b) I don't think you know the difference between antibody and antigen testing, but the PCR tests made by Novacyt for are for viral RNA.  Which is neither of these.  They're bit players compared to the likes of Roche, Qiagen, NEB, Thermofisher, BioRad and IDT.
(c) Most profits in these sorts of things are in IP.  Most jurisdictions can over-ride patents in national emergencies.  Stuff will mostly be sold at cost.  There's a long-lasting benefit to the company, but it's intangible.

By all means buy Omega Diagnostics tomorrow, but the chances you'll be able to execute a purchase the moment the market opens is slim.  Difficult to buy yesterday's good news.

Thats nice, but as has been highlighted you are the one that doesnt understand the difference.
Anyhow, I did indeed miss the boat for Omega but invested a modest speculatory amount in Genedrive based on their low market cap and the antigen tests that they are working on. I am up a not too shabby 27% already.

It's not been highlighted at all.  
Did you read the last set of interim accounts?
http://www.genedriveplc.com/company-reports/GenedriveInterimReport2020.pdf
Do you understand the implications of have about 8 months operating expenses left?  What do you plan to do with these shares?

None of the above particulary relevant for a momentum play if you can read the technicals. Anyhow after going in on Tuesday morning and out this afternoon I take away 53% profit. Probably got a little further to run based on charting but the baloon will eventually pop. Put the money back into one of my long term oilies.

It rather sounds like you making it up as you go along to be honest as your previous posts in no way allude to reading technical tea leaves. But I'm glad we seem agree there's a Covid bubble and you've cashed in while your chips are up.

puk999

bowlhead99 said:

Malthusian said:

Rowan evidently didn't know the score with investment in payday loans, German property or Welsh theme parks. What quality does his knowledge of mainstream investments and Bitcoin have that makes his opinions on those subjects any different?

In this video skit, he is not offering opinions on anything, or passing himself off as an expert (other than "Chairman of the Elite Investor Club, Author and Presenter"). Here he has the role of 'presenter', just providing a soapbox for the special guest 'Realistic Trader'.  In that sense his role is no worse than when he promotes the alternative investments to his 'elite' investors who want to high yield investment in a burial plot or the like. If you do what is suggested there and lose your money, it's not his fault because he only gave you access to the opportunity and information about why it's great, rather than actually running the investment himself - it was your choice to fall for it

Likewise here he is just giving a voice to Siam the 'expert' trader who is calling the markets down and wants as many people as possible to hear the message and dump stocks - as that's something that could help the trader reach his objectives (while broadening the trader's reach for his own businesses) while also supporting Mr Rowan's objectives. The trader is happy to go and speak on as many soapboxes as possible because as he mentions in his own blog:

It was also evident that in order to do well in business you HAVE TO be good at online marketing. Sales come from leads. For an online biz, leads come from online marketing! This is a field I reluctantly entered, but beggars can’t be choosers, so through necessity, I became a good marketer. This is one of my most cherished skills these days now.

With those cherished skills of getting as much online exposure as possible, the Realistic Trader has a business built around "an advanced machine learning Trading Robot that will be trading for you on your own live account 24 hours per day/5.5 days a week" for only £500 per month. [We are so confident that our machine-learning Trading robot will make you at least 20% in 12 months of using it (as long as you stick to our settings), that we will give you a full refund if it doesn’t]".

I guess this is a useful side income in case the traders own predictions are far from the mark.

It's easy to see Mr Rowan's glowing endorsements of doom-mongering soapbox stars as a blunt tool to leverage the promotions he makes to his 'elite' investors, to help lure them away from mainstream investments and into the high risk 'alternatives'. Here's a past example which was called out on this forum:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160418085855/http://www.eliteinvestorclub.com/in-the-media/

Leading financial experts predict a major global financial crisis within 2 years

A major, global financial crisis will happen within the next 2 years. That’s according to world-renowned economic forecaster Harry Dent. The warning came at Saturday’s Elite Investor Summit, where some of the world’s top financial experts came together to offer their expertise to budding and experienced investors from around the globe. Harry, who captivated the audience with his unique approach to demographic forecasting, has successfully pinpointed nearly every major economic crash over the past 30 years...
Dent delivered a sobering keynote speech, pulling information from a range of demographic trends to establish the basis for his stark conclusion – that a major financial crash was imminent and unavoidable. The Dow Jones he said, would fall to just 6,000 by early 2017 and bottom out as low as 3,300 by early 2020 with a ripple effect across the globe.

Graham Rowan, Chairman of the Elite Investor Club which hosts the Elite Investor Summit, had this to say. “Today’s stark warning from Harry is a clear message to investors that they cannot rely on the stock market or residential property investments to fund their retirement. Investors need to be taking a different approach, thinking outside the box and seeking alternative investment opportunities and that’s exactly what we able to offer here at the Elite Investor Club”. 

This article was from 2015; rather than falling to 6000 in early 2017 and being at 3000 by now, the Dow Jones instead rose from 19700 to 26500 in 2017 and is still comfortably over 20000. But the excitement of an extreme viewpoint pushed at a seminar has no doubt helped Elite Investor Club make lots of sales of opportunities for investors to lose their wealth in something less boring than conventional stocks and bonds and cash.

EdGasketTheSecond said:
Never mind who they are, it's what he says that matters and he is spot on

IMHO you *do* have to mind who they are and why they are saying it. Rowan's whole raison d'etre is to let people know their conventional investments will fail to make the grade and his high risk alternatives which he earns money for introducing, will do well. So he produces video content that supports his objectives. 

It's a bit like the video you posted a few weeks ago from the owner of the gold and silver dealership who wrote a book about how everything apart from gold and sliver was doomed, sold tickets to seminar events where he did the same, and started to produce large volumes of video content encouraging people to believe that everything apart from gold and silver was doomed. What's sold at the seminars and through video accompaniments to membership of the 'club' is entirely self-interest, although you saw the video series as 'spot on' because you sympathised with his view. Falling for the marketing does not mean it was some great economic insight.

EdGasketTheSecond said:
and he is spot on.
The only part I might disagree with is towards the end ref. Bitcoin and Tesla.

_
Trader: "Going back to the average person, what do they do? I think the simplest thing is have a little bit of Bitcoin, have a little bit of gold and silver, maybe buy a little bit of Tesla when it gets lower, and go to cash."

Host: "We're obviously in the middle of a crisis right now, but if we look out 3-5 years what are your thoughts on the global economy?"

Trader: "I think it's going to be extremely prosperous... we have the millennials, the biggest demographic in human history, all converging on technologies which will have exponential growth, 3D printing, AI, over the next, sort of ... from 3 years from now it's going to be extremely bullish, it's going to be amazing... all sorts of amazing industries, so yeah it's going to be amazing once this thing passes.
_
So basically the global economy is going to be amazingly prosperous in a few years but for the moment you should have a little bit of bitcoin and a little bit of gold and silver and cash and buy Tesla when it goes down [my note - it's gone up 29% since he said this on 8 April ($549 to $706)].

EdGasket who has previously told us that all stocks and currencies are doomed for the long term due to hyperinflation (which seems to be at odds with the conclusion of this piece that the global economy is going to be extremely prosperous) does not agree that you should hold bitcoin and Tesla, and you should not hold cash because cash will lose out to hyperinflation - he only likes the 'little bit of gold and silver' angle.

But instead of admitting that the video is put together by a sales guy with a vested interest in people dropping mainstream stocks and long term investment strategies, and that he disagrees with most of the conclusion, he reckons the video is 'spot on' because it mentions selling stocks and buying gold and silver, and glosses over the fact that the video only mentions 'a little bit' of gold and silver, and that it recommends holding cash even though cash is doomed, and that it recommends bitcoin and tesla which he doesn't agree with either.

To me, this doesn't sound like he believes that the guy is generally 'spot on' at all. EdGasket just selectively heard that you should sell stocks and buy gold, which is what he wanted to hear. So disregarding the thin credentials of the people putting together the video and their objectives, he posted it to support his position, because they are 'spot on'.

The quoted text was posted a week ago but I'm playing catch-up on this thread. Have to say, bowlhead's post here cuts through all the carp and nails it. Will carry on reading to see if this common sense post has helped EdGasket to see what's really going on with the videos and views...

bostonerimus

It's been hard work going through some of the posts in this thread and it's made me even happier that I've done what I've always done; stay invested and rebalanced. When I retired I made the conscious decision to arrange things so I'm not directly dependent on income from stocks and bonds and kept my final salary pension plan and made sure I was totally debt free by paying off my mortgage. So with low expenses and a monthly pension cheque being deposited in my bank account I can be sanguine about the variations in my portfolio's value which in turn stops me from doing stupid things. Simple thrift and a long term, low cost, diversified financial strategy of cash. fixed income and index trackers is not sexy, but it is simple and will work just fine for most people.