Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

badger09

colsten said:

Can someone provide a 1-line answer to the thread question? Apologies if I have missed it.

No
I don't even need a whole line for my answer

woolly_wombat

coastline said:

Username999 said:

coastline said:

Spinning top..Maybe   
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

DOJI ...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doji.asp

Not a very good day so far with bad news from the USA. Maybe a trip lower now.? Those doji spinning tops ? 
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917245/ftse-100-takes-another-plunge-us-crude-now-below-us20-per-barrel-917245.html

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

From yesterday one of my favourite indicators ,Slow Stoch , on the top of the guideline and curling down. Lets see ? Not the best of charts but the ideas there.
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=INDU&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=UKX&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=

What's your current thinking coastline?

Kendall80

BlackWillow said:

I've only recently started investing but the key piece of advice I've heard is the saying time in the market beats timing the market.

That said, i'm waiting for the next drop

EdGasketTheSecond

bowlhead99 said:

It's a bit like the video you posted a few weeks ago from the owner of the gold and silver dealership who wrote a book about how everything apart from gold and sliver was doomed, sold tickets to seminar events where he did the same, and started to produce large volumes of video content encouraging people to believe that everything apart from gold and silver was doomed. What's sold at the seminars and through video accompaniments to membership of the 'club' is entirely self-interest, although you saw the video series as 'spot on' because you sympathised with his view. Falling for the marketing does not mean it was some great economic insight.

EdGasketTheSecond said:
and he is spot on.
The only part I might disagree with is towards the end ref. Bitcoin and Tesla.

_
Trader: "Going back to the average person, what do they do? I think the simplest thing is have a little bit of Bitcoin, have a little bit of gold and silver, maybe buy a little bit of Tesla when it gets lower, and go to cash."

Host: "We're obviously in the middle of a crisis right now, but if we look out 3-5 years what are your thoughts on the global economy?"

Trader: "I think it's going to be extremely prosperous... we have the millennials, the biggest demographic in human history, all converging on technologies which will have exponential growth, 3D printing, AI, over the next, sort of ... from 3 years from now it's going to be extremely bullish, it's going to be amazing... all sorts of amazing industries, so yeah it's going to be amazing once this thing passes.
_
So basically the global economy is going to be amazingly prosperous in a few years but for the moment you should have a little bit of bitcoin and a little bit of gold and silver and cash and buy Tesla when it goes down [my note - it's gone up 29% since he said this on 8 April ($549 to $706)].

EdGasket who has previously told us that all stocks and currencies are doomed for the long term due to hyperinflation (which seems to be at odds with the conclusion of this piece that the global economy is going to be extremely prosperous) does not agree that you should hold bitcoin and Tesla, and you should not hold cash because cash will lose out to hyperinflation - he only likes the 'little bit of gold and silver' angle.

But instead of admitting that the video is put together by a sales guy with a vested interest in people dropping mainstream stocks and long term investment strategies, and that he disagrees with most of the conclusion, he reckons the video is 'spot on' because it mentions selling stocks and buying gold and silver, and glosses over the fact that the video only mentions 'a little bit' of gold and silver, and that it recommends holding cash even though cash is doomed, and that it recommends bitcoin and tesla which he doesn't agree with either.

To me, this doesn't sound like he believes that the guy is generally 'spot on' at all. EdGasket just selectively heard that you should sell stocks and buy gold, which is what he wanted to hear. So disregarding the thin credentials of the people putting together the video and their objectives, he posted it to support his position, because they are 'spot on'.

"EdGasket who has previously told us that all stocks and currencies are doomed for the long term due to hyperinflation "

Come on bowlhead99 I have never said that. Of course stocks do well in hyperinflation, everyone knows that, maybe not as well as gold but obviously a lot better than cash. Any hard asset will do well in a hyperinflation scenario.

In the video:

21.26 bullish on gold medium to long term

Exactly what I said in previous comments, that there could be a pull back on gold with a drop in the stockmarket. I have also said that it is just possible that the FED will support the market and we won't get the drop which is why some gold now is a good idea as there is no guarantee of a drop in either the market or gold. However it is pretty much certain that gold will be a good investment over the next couple of years.

Bitcoin, not really my thing.

Tesla, looks overpriced and burns cash so will need more funding. That is never good for a share but Siam could be right about it; just not my thing.

Thrugelmir

BlackWillow said:

I've only recently started investing but the key piece of advice I've heard is the saying time in the market beats timing the market.

Most people start off by drip feeding and building a portfolio using mainstream diversified funds. Perfectly adequate as a base platform. You'll understand and appreciate this advice better the longer the time you stay invested. 

port_of_spain

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Of course stocks do well in hyperinflation, everyone knows that, maybe not as well as gold but obviously a lot better than cash. Any hard asset will do well in a hyperinflation scenario.

You're taking the !!!!!! now. This all started with your talking about (and allegedly actually doing) dumping most of your stocks to buy precious metals. And now you tell us both stocks and precious metals will do well, after all!

Despite which, you (allegedly) dumped an asset class which has historical real returns averaging about 5% (equities) for one with historical real returns averaging about 0% (precious metals).

EdGasketTheSecond

port_of_spain said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Of course stocks do well in hyperinflation, everyone knows that, maybe not as well as gold but obviously a lot better than cash. Any hard asset will do well in a hyperinflation scenario.

You're taking the !!!!!! now. This all started with your talking about (and allegedly actually doing) dumping most of your stocks to buy precious metals. And now you tell us both stocks and precious metals will do well, after all!

Despite which, you (allegedly) dumped an asset class which has historical real returns averaging about 5% (equities) for one with historical real returns averaging about 0% (precious metals).

No that's not correct.

The thread was liquidating portfolio until virus is over. That was due to the effects to companies from the virus and the hit to earnings. So it is a debate about whether we are now in a bear market or not. If it is a bear market, which I think it is, then you don't want to be in stocks.

With the bear market we may get a deflationary period after which, due to the money printing, we could see high or hyperinflation. So short-term, until we are through the virus and deflationary period, cash is fine; just as Siam says. But once inflation picks up you don't want to be in cash, you want to be in gold and stocks.

It's all quite logical if you pay attention and stop twisting things round for the sake of an argument.

Malthusian

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The thread was liquidating portfolio until virus is over. That was due to the effects to companies from the virus and the hit to earnings. So it is a debate about whether we are now in a bear market or not. If it is a bear market, which I think it is, then you don't want to be in stocks.

This is what comes of not teaching kids Latin, they don't get tenses. If it is a bear market (present tense, and it is), then you don't want to have been in stocks (present perfect tense). If you are in stocks, present tense, and it is a bear market, present tense, it is too late to do anything about it other than hold on. Or cash in and lose money.

If you have money that you can afford to leave until the next bear market will have passed (future perfect, as any fule kno), generally defined as 5-10 years because it's a quick shorthand for saying "we don't know but the record is 6 years but the record will one day be broken by an unknown amount at an unknown point in the future", then you want to be in stocks.

As there is no evidence that anyone can consistently predict when bear markets will change from the inevitable future to the actually present, most people who try to be out of stocks during bear markets but in them during bull markets lose money.

This is all pretty Key Stage 2 but not for people who are still failing the marshmallow test even when they're old enough to manage their own money and post on MSE. People who can distinguish between the present and the future can make money in the stockmarket and collect their second marshmallow. For people who can't the past, present and future all merge into one doughy blancmange, into which step the likes of Rowan and Kidd to remove your money so they can help you get rich quick right this sometime, one day.

port_of_spain

EdGasketTheSecond said:

port_of_spain said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Of course stocks do well in hyperinflation, everyone knows that, maybe not as well as gold but obviously a lot better than cash. Any hard asset will do well in a hyperinflation scenario.

You're taking the !!!!!! now. This all started with your talking about (and allegedly actually doing) dumping most of your stocks to buy precious metals. And now you tell us both stocks and precious metals will do well, after all!

Despite which, you (allegedly) dumped an asset class which has historical real returns averaging about 5% (equities) for one with historical real returns averaging about 0% (precious metals).

No that's not correct.

The thread was liquidating portfolio until virus is over. That was due to the effects to companies from the virus and the hit to earnings. So it is a debate about whether we are now in a bear market or not. If it is a bear market, which I think it is, then you don't want to be in stocks.

With the bear market we may get a deflationary period after which, due to the money printing, we could see high or hyperinflation. So short-term, until we are through the virus and deflationary period, cash is fine; just as Siam says. But once inflation picks up you don't want to be in cash, you want to be in gold and stocks.

It's all quite logical if you pay attention and stop twisting things round for the sake of an argument.

So when you were talking about aiming for 70% in precious metals + miners of precious metals, that was about what you wanted to do at a later stage (after the virus, and after the possible deflation after that), not about what you wanted to do when you said it?? The trouble is that your predictions are meaningless, if you can always say that when you said it was essential to be holding X, you actually meant it was essential at a slightly later stage. Every asset class will have its time in the sun; the difficulty is knowing when; admitting we don't know is why sensible people maintain broad diversification.

But never mind that ... what I really want to know is, as I've asked before (and you haven't answered, unless I missed it), will anything bad happen to you if your investment calls turn out to be wrong (sorry: not wrong,  but mistimed; or perhaps wrong but not your fault, but all the fault of the wicked "FED"), or are you living off guaranted pensions which cover your needs and wants OK, so your investments are just a game for you?

EdGasketTheSecond

In simple terms it would be OK to hold a large amount of gold right now. To fine tune that, and I've attempted to explain why, then you might hold some gold now and add to it if/when the market drops and there is a pullback in gold with it or if that just never happens and gold breaks up, then just invest the rest in gold anyway.

I don't know why you are so concerned about my personal financial position unless you would derive some warped satisfaction if things don't pan out my way? It's really immaterial to this thread and the original question posed. But to satisfy your curiousity, I will be just fine whatever happens just not so wealthy if gold tanks.

Multhusian - why on earth would you want to be in stocks in a bear market and have to wait 5 - 10 years to get your money back? Seems more sensible to get out and into cash or gold. Surely you can see the effect the virus is having on business confidence, unemployment, dividend cuts, oil crashing, unemployment; just about everything. What logical reason is there left ot be in stocks other than the hope that the FED might pump so much liquidity into the system that it just ends up supporting the market BUT at the price of debasing the dollar through creating n trillions of 'funny money'. Which all brings us back to gold to maintain value through these troubled times.