Covid-19 - New US Cases Set to Soar? Impact On Markets?

DairyQueen

kinger101 said:

I found the graphs in the second link interesting.  It seems outside China, there's still an exponential growth phase.  But perhaps some encouragement in the fall in "active" cases.  The main concern though is probably the undiagnosed cases.  Even in the UK we have one case for whom the source of infection is unknown.  Very hard to contain if there are asymptomatic people out there spreading the virus.

The UK is carrying out random testing and has now undertaken over 10,000 tests at a positive rate of 0.2%. The US (on the other hand) has undertaken less than 500 tests with a 4+% positive rate.

It seems that, until now,  the US has used rigid criteria determining those who should be tested. As a result, health officials are reporting that even those who have been symptomatic have not been tested.

As the US is just about to change its methodology to something approaching that of the UK, I suspect that they will uncover many 100s of so far undiagnosed cases over a short period. How US investors and consumers will react to such a sudden rise is anybody's guess.

Alistair31

Sue58 said:

Alistair31 said:

Monday will be another bleak day for the markets.

How can you be sure of that?

I can’t. But I reckon the U.S. cases are going to snowball and not even Trump will be able to keep a lid on it. 

Albermarle

What is in doubt is how the virus will behave as we get into the warmer months, that may be crucial

From what I have read these type of pandemics normally subside over the summer , but they often come back for a second wave the next winter. Of course nothing is for sure but that I think would be the expectation . Problem is it is a long way to Summer yet .

2010

2000 the dot com bubble
2008 reckless bankers
2020 a bug
Probably going to be a lot worse this time because no one knows how bad the world`s economy is going to be damaged.

DairyQueen

Alistair31 said:

I reckon the U.S. cases are going to snowball and not even Trump will be able to keep a lid on it. 

That's my view too. I think the US has deliberately avoided testing in order to give the impression that numbers are very low. They have decided to act robustly now as they can no longer keep a lid on it. Too many people are becoming infected and too many others are reporting the detail of the US authorities' low key/limited responses.

The delay could proof very problematic. Could we see numbers in the US akin to those in China but without an authoritarian government's ability to enforce strict quarantine? Has this scenario been priced-in? If not, it could precipitate a market response much worse than last week's correction.

Whether the markets drop by10/20/50% I will still be sitting on the sidelines. I intend to ride this one out and just test my tolerance to the portfolio's current exposure to risk. 

Reaper

DairyQueen said:

The Covid-19 stats for the USA relative to the ROW (Rest Of World) were looking strange (few cases, high death rate).

While the exact figure is debated the death rate seems to be around 1% of those infected, so any country where the deaths are high but the infected figure is low indicates they are under reporting the true extent.

kinger101

DairyQueen said:

kinger101 said:

I found the graphs in the second link interesting.  It seems outside China, there's still an exponential growth phase.  But perhaps some encouragement in the fall in "active" cases.  The main concern though is probably the undiagnosed cases.  Even in the UK we have one case for whom the source of infection is unknown.  Very hard to contain if there are asymptomatic people out there spreading the virus.

The UK is carrying out random testing and has now undertaken over 10,000 tests at a positive rate of 0.2%. The US (on the other hand) has undertaken less than 500 tests with a 4+% positive rate.

The tests aren't random, although they've falsely been reported as such.  They're taken on people presenting with flu-like symptoms who are sufficiently ill to visit GP or hospital.  If they were random, it would mean that there were ca. 120,000 people in the UK infected.

NorthernJoe

kinger101 said:

The tests aren't random, although they've falsely been reported as such.  They're taken on people presenting with flu-like symptoms who are sufficiently ill to visit GP or hospital.  If they were random, it would mean that there were ca. 120,000 people in the UK infected.

Exactly. I'm more reassured by a system that has lots of negatives. 

US clearly aren't testing enough people 

Thrugelmir

NorthernJoe said:

kinger101 said:

The tests aren't random, although they've falsely been reported as such.  They're taken on people presenting with flu-like symptoms who are sufficiently ill to visit GP or hospital.  If they were random, it would mean that there were ca. 120,000 people in the UK infected.

US clearly aren't testing enough people 

Big land mass to cover effectively. 

Freecall

Alistair31 said

....not even Trump will be able to keep a lid on it. 

It's all fake news,  fake news.


-- He can try --