Covid-19 - New US Cases Set to Soar? Impact On Markets?

DairyQueen

The Covid-19 stats for the USA relative to the ROW (Rest Of World) were looking strange (few cases, high death rate). It appears that the lack of testing has enabled the official stats available from the CDC (US Center for Disease Control) to reinforce the reassuring (false?) message that the US has a remarkable level of 'immunity'.

After a little online digging it seems that the US has been restricting and bungling testing. This NY Times article explains why testing and detection rates have been so low and also why things are about to change. 

If the number of cases in the US are just about to take a large leap, and if the West coast states will be worst affected (global HQs of the FAANGs amongst many others), the impact on US/global markets could be 'interesting'. Is it time to brace for a crash?

Thrugelmir

Factory activity in China during February doesn't make for good reading. With small and medium sized companies only operating at around 32% capacity. Estimated that some 100 million migrant workers haven't yet returned to work since the Chinese New Year holidays. Going to impact many global supply chains. Given the reliance on China. 

fun4everyone

It was already known we are in a pandemic if you searched for truthful figures (despite what the WHO claimed).  There is positive data if you look carefully and use a brain.  it’s not spreading in hot countries.  We will be highly infected here also.  I hope for strong containment measures like banning of mass gatherings.  That and the summer should tide us over until a vaccine comes.  It has proven effective in Macau and will help the NHS.

Sea_Shell

Since when has the UK been a "hot" country??!    I don't think we can rely on the great British summer to help us.

Novice_investor101

I'm taking the position that it'll get worse before it gets better. I've got a 4 figure sum of cash on its way from PB's (after the next draw) ready to put into my stocks ISA, where the unit price of my two funds is less than the total average I bought in at. I did crystallise gains last October when I sold everything to switch platforms, so I'm officially still in a plus, but down from Oct 2019 to now. I'll be investing 1/3 of the cash asap & then waiting a week or two to see if there's further drops (I think there will be). I don't profess to know where the bottom is, or how long the recovery will take. But, the money will get invested at some point soon & I've got 20 years to leave it to do its thing.
Right or wrong decision, I've made my decision & I'm sticking to it. At some point in the future, I'll know how it pans out....

m_c_s

Some open source links monitoring spread of COVID-19:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Moneyvator also linked these in his recent blog.

kinger101

I found the graphs in the second link interesting.  It seems outside China, there's still an exponential growth phase.  But perhaps some encouragement in the fall in "active" cases.  The main concern though is probably the undiagnosed cases.  Even in the UK we have one case for whom the source of infection is unknown.  Very hard to contain if there are asymptomatic people out there spreading the virus.

Alistair31

Monday will be another bleak day for the markets.

Sue58

Alistair31 said:

Monday will be another bleak day for the markets.

How can you be sure of that?

Thrugelmir

Sue58 said:

Alistair31 said:

Monday will be another bleak day for the markets.

How can you be sure of that?

Bad news is currently outweighing good news. 

scaredofdebt

There's a company near me that makes TVs, they've gone to a 4 day week as they are struggling to get parts from China.  I seem to recall a company (Diageo) announced a profits warning as well as they are seeing sales in China taking a nosedive.  Economic activity is already being affected here and it will get worse.

The problem is I cannot see Western governments taking the same action that China has, so it's likely the virus will spread over here more than it did there, we will see in the next month or two.  This could trigger a global recession, which is probably overdue, certainly a stock market "correction" is overdue.

What is in doubt is how the virus will behave as we get into the warmer months, that may be crucial.

The government plans include allowing bigger class sizes and getting retired doctors and nurses to help out, not entirely sure either of those are great ideas.

If in doubt hold - it will recover given time, more than likely!