Markets - Minor Correction? (Edit: Question Answered)

Thrugelmir

Username999 said:

Thought it was going to be 'Buy the Rumour, Sell the News' . (Payroll tax)

One US broker I heard at the weekend commented that "the world was currently in a deep recession, just that people hadn't woken up to the fact yet".  

aesthetic

Thrugelmir said:

aesthetic said:

Well things certainly got a whole lot worse...!

Dead cat bounce today...........

I think you are probably right. But we must be nearing the bottom soon surely?! My total losses across the spread are at about 12% currently.

Sea_Shell

aesthetic said:

Thrugelmir said:

aesthetic said:

Well things certainly got a whole lot worse...!

Dead cat bounce today...........

I think you are probably right. But we must be nearing the bottom soon surely?! My total losses across the spread are at about 12% currently.

I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom yet. 

As an example, one of my ISA funds currently stands at a unit price of 241.11p
As at 21/2/20 it hit it's highest at 287.45p
Back on 5/1/19, it dropped to 203.94p 

bowlhead99

aesthetic said:

Thrugelmir said:

aesthetic said:

Well things certainly got a whole lot worse...!

Dead cat bounce today...........

I think you are probably right. But we must be nearing the bottom soon surely?! My total losses across the spread are at about 12% currently.

12% is not much of a fall in the context of other major stock market falls in the past. The market was assuming there would be some support from central banks and now US, UK and Australia have all made deep cuts to their rates. Other places already have negative rates. Remains to be seen what other stimulus the markets will get.

FTSE opened mildly up (to be expected given the pound is weaker with a lower interest rate) but one would hardly expect the market to go stampeding back up. 'Near the bottom' could be well off the mark when the FTSE is still over 6000. If it were 4000 I would be more inclined to agree.

aesthetic

bowlhead99 said:

'Near the bottom' could be well off the mark when the FTSE is still over 6000. If it were 4000 I would be more inclined to agree.

I think it was more of a hopeful pleading "surely?!?" than a confident "surely!"  :'( 

JohnRo

The fear and panic in some posts is tangible, odd really as nothing unusual is happening. Markets are simply reacting to current information as they always have and always will.

At the very least newer investors are being taught a valuable lesson about their own attitudes to investment risk, loss aversion and tolerance.

cloud_dog

At a macro level it is all getting very interesting.  Insofar as the current issues will affect future earnings and therefore markets (for a period of time).  But we are back down to the lowest levels for base rates with some packages introduced to support businesses and lending.  Won't the net effect of this mean that money will be looking for a home and equities are probably the likely destination further inflating those asset prices / markets?  (Unless your name is DiggerUK)

aesthetic

JohnRo said:

The fear and panic in some posts is tangible, odd really as nothing unusual is happening. Markets are simply reacting to current information as they always have and always will.

At the very least newer investors are being taught a valuable lesson about their own attitudes to investment risk, loss aversion and tolerance.

I read this article this morning, very sobering:
northmantrader.com/2020/03/10/destruction/
"What a chart like this basically says is that every buyer in the past 13 months (who didn’t sell) is under water. That’s a lot of buying. Anybody that has bought stocks in the past year has been taken to the cleaners. ETFs, pension funds, institutions, hedge funds, buybacks, retail, you name it."

Username999

aesthetic said:

JohnRo said:

The fear and panic in some posts is tangible, odd really as nothing unusual is happening. Markets are simply reacting to current information as they always have and always will.

At the very least newer investors are being taught a valuable lesson about their own attitudes to investment risk, loss aversion and tolerance.

I read this article this morning, very sobering:
northmantrader.com/2020/03/10/destruction/
"What a chart like this basically says is that every buyer in the past 13 months (who didn’t sell) is under water. That’s a lot of buying. Anybody that has bought stocks in the past year has been taken to the cleaners. ETFs, pension funds, institutions, hedge funds, buybacks, retail, you name it."

Not to take anything away from your post...
If you had bought every 'all time high' of the Dow Jones 30 (and other indexes) since it started, you'd have been in profit up until 12 Feb 2020.


But that is History!
DYOR

Malthusian

aesthetic said:

JohnRo said:

The fear and panic in some posts is tangible, odd really as nothing unusual is happening. Markets are simply reacting to current information as they always have and always will.

At the very least newer investors are being taught a valuable lesson about their own attitudes to investment risk, loss aversion and tolerance.

I read this article this morning, very sobering:
northmantrader.com/2020/03/10/destruction/
"What a chart like this basically says is that every buyer in the past 13 months (who didn’t sell) is under water. That’s a lot of buying. Anybody that has bought stocks in the past year has been taken to the cleaners. ETFs, pension funds, institutions, hedge funds, buybacks, retail, you name it."

They have only been taken into the cleaners if for some reason they invested in stocks intending to sell them a year later.

But the fact that the URL has "trader" in it tells us all we need to know.