Markets - Minor Correction? (Edit: Question Answered)

Filo25

I suppose the good news is I should have some bonus to invest in my pension soon, so I should be picking up some equities at lower prices at least!

HardCoreProgrammer2

I registered as HardCoreProgrammer using an old email address with a domain service provider which no longer exists, and a password which is deemed insecure by the new forum platform. Therefore, I cannot log in using my old username again because it is impossible to receive the password reset email.

I am very lucky to have got out relatively unscathed.
For a few years, I have been steadily reducing my exposure to equities, and started to reduce exposure to Asia Pacific after the panic started just before Chinese new year.
Last week, I was watching Japanese language news and was astonished to learn that Diamond Princess passengers who passed quarantine were allowed to travel home by public transport - this came straight after the warning from professor Iwata Kentarou. I lost conviction in the Japanese authorities in controlling the outbreak, so I sold every Japan fund which I had. I also started selling down emerging markets, reasoning that if the virus becomes established in countries with weak public health systems or failed states, then it is game over for any effort to control the pandemic (which WHO is still refusing to declare - the organisation is headed by an Ethiopian who has no love lost with the west and is on very friendly terms with the PRC, this has been pointed out by former university professor Simon Shum Yuk-fai in one of his recent TV appearances).
On Monday, I saw the fall and decided to hit the sell button on everything, with the exception of my UK holdings - reasoning that the "free at point of use" principle NHS will be more effective in keeping the outbreak at bay. I just checked now, and the funds which I sold have fallen by at least another 5%.
Of course, the UK market dropped more compared to others despite my reasoning that UK may be less affected, so I was not right on everything. But fortunately, I trusted my instincts (as I did with Woodford), acted decisively and avoided the worst. The lesson seems to be: if you have to panic, do so early.

It is interesting that at the start of this thread, people were still spouting the "time in the market not timing the market" mantra, but this steadily declined as time went by and panic started to set in.
My personal view is that this pandemic will have a profound impact on the world economy. Governments are really between the devil and the deep blue sea: put in measures and kill the economy (e.g. Hong Kong, border crossings closed, schools suspended, government offices, libraries, sports halls, swimming pools, etc. shut down, people avoid eating out and unnecessary travel, wear masks whenever they go out, etc. and still a few cases are reported daily), or relax the measures and risk becoming another Wuhan or Italy (in which case medical services collapse and the economy is kaput anyway).
I have kept my regular monthly investments going, but will be very cautious about investing lump sums, until a vaccine is widely available.

NorthernJoe

But fortunately, I trusted my instincts (as I did with Woodford), acted decisively and avoided the worst. The lesson seems to be: if you have to panic, do so early.

It is interesting that at the start of this thread, people were still spouting the "time in the market not timing the market" mantra, but this steadily declined as time went by and panic started to set in.

There will be many replies stating that you were invested above your risk profile, that investments are for the longterm and that in a few years time this will just be "blip". "Equities are cheaper now than they were a month ago" didn't you know? 

I happen to agree with you though. I sold all my investments when the news in Iran broke. For me that was the turning point. Strangely it took the market a long time to react to this. This is exceptional. Probably a once in a hundred year event. Past market pressures & crashes/falls/corrections can tell us nothing about what to expect here. 

One thing is probably certain though - this will be a finite issue, a vaccine will come along around the time herd immunity has increased to a significant level (probably >12 months). The question is whether, what will inevitably be a major global recession, will expose wider cracks in the financial system and begin to recover in a timely way thereafter. Who knows. 

John464

HardCoreProgrammer2 said:

I registered as HardCoreProgrammer using an old email address with a domain service provider which no longer exists, and a password which is deemed insecure by the new forum platform. Therefore, I cannot log in using my old username again because it is impossible to receive the password reset email.

I am very lucky to have got out relatively unscathed.
For a few years, I have been steadily reducing my exposure to equities, and started to reduce exposure to Asia Pacific after the panic started just before Chinese new year.
Last week, I was watching Japanese language news and was astonished to learn that Diamond Princess passengers who passed quarantine were allowed to travel home by public transport - this came straight after the warning from professor Iwata Kentarou. I lost conviction in the Japanese authorities in controlling the outbreak, so I sold every Japan fund which I had. I also started selling down emerging markets, reasoning that if the virus becomes established in countries with weak public health systems or failed states, then it is game over for any effort to control the pandemic (which WHO is still refusing to declare - the organisation is headed by an Ethiopian who has no love lost with the west and is on very friendly terms with the PRC, this has been pointed out by former university professor Simon Shum Yuk-fai in one of his recent TV appearances).
On Monday, I saw the fall and decided to hit the sell button on everything, with the exception of my UK holdings - reasoning that the "free at point of use" principle NHS will be more effective in keeping the outbreak at bay. I just checked now, and the funds which I sold have fallen by at least another 5%.
Of course, the UK market dropped more compared to others despite my reasoning that UK may be less affected, so I was not right on everything. But fortunately, I trusted my instincts (as I did with Woodford), acted decisively and avoided the worst. The lesson seems to be: if you have to panic, do so early.

It is interesting that at the start of this thread, people were still spouting the "time in the market not timing the market" mantra, but this steadily declined as time went by and panic started to set in.
My personal view is that this pandemic will have a profound impact on the world economy. Governments are really between the devil and the deep blue sea: put in measures and kill the economy (e.g. Hong Kong, border crossings closed, schools suspended, government offices, libraries, sports halls, swimming pools, etc. shut down, people avoid eating out and unnecessary travel, wear masks whenever they go out, etc. and still a few cases are reported daily), or relax the measures and risk becoming another Wuhan or Italy (in which case medical services collapse and the economy is kaput anyway).
I have kept my regular monthly investments going, but will be very cautious about investing lump sums, until a vaccine is widely available.

why didn't you tell us before the correction, instead of after?

Zorillo

Username999 said:

Zorillo said:

.... but I'm waiting to see if the DJ goes below 25k. ....

IMHO it will go below 25K.

And it did, briefly. I'm still hovering over the buy trigger though.

Shankers

The MSE Forum has actually been a big help to me in this downturn as the advice, experience and wisdom I have read has helped me gain perspective. I'm not too concerned and I'm definitely not going to sell anything. In my mid-thirties I'll not be needing the money I'm investing for a good 20-25 years, so I'm trying to see the current situation as a chance to use my existing direct debits/regular saving plan as a way to pick up funds cheaper. I'm not going to be adding any extras beyond my regular savings as we just don't know how far markets will fall, but the regular savings should cover positions month by month both in the fall and (eventually) in the recovery. I do feel very sorry not only for the people who are victims of Coronavirus, but also for people who are needing their investments for income now or were planning on doing so in the near future. 

DairyQueen

HardCoreProgrammer2 said:

I registered as HardCoreProgrammer using an old email address with a domain service provider which no longer exists, and a password which is deemed insecure by the new forum platform. Therefore, I cannot log in using my old username again because it is impossible to receive the password reset email.

I am very lucky to have got out relatively unscathed.
For a few years, I have been steadily reducing my exposure to equities, and started to reduce exposure to Asia Pacific after the panic started just before Chinese new year.
Last week, I was watching Japanese language news and was astonished to learn that Diamond Princess passengers who passed quarantine were allowed to travel home by public transport - this came straight after the warning from professor Iwata Kentarou. I lost conviction in the Japanese authorities in controlling the outbreak, so I sold every Japan fund which I had. I also started selling down emerging markets, reasoning that if the virus becomes established in countries with weak public health systems or failed states, then it is game over for any effort to control the pandemic (which WHO is still refusing to declare - the organisation is headed by an Ethiopian who has no love lost with the west and is on very friendly terms with the PRC, this has been pointed out by former university professor Simon Shum Yuk-fai in one of his recent TV appearances).
On Monday, I saw the fall and decided to hit the sell button on everything, with the exception of my UK holdings - reasoning that the "free at point of use" principle NHS will be more effective in keeping the outbreak at bay. I just checked now, and the funds which I sold have fallen by at least another 5%.
Of course, the UK market dropped more compared to others despite my reasoning that UK may be less affected, so I was not right on everything. But fortunately, I trusted my instincts (as I did with Woodford), acted decisively and avoided the worst. The lesson seems to be: if you have to panic, do so early.

It is interesting that at the start of this thread, people were still spouting the "time in the market not timing the market" mantra, but this steadily declined as time went by and panic started to set in.
My personal view is that this pandemic will have a profound impact on the world economy. Governments are really between the devil and the deep blue sea: put in measures and kill the economy (e.g. Hong Kong, border crossings closed, schools suspended, government offices, libraries, sports halls, swimming pools, etc. shut down, people avoid eating out and unnecessary travel, wear masks whenever they go out, etc. and still a few cases are reported daily), or relax the measures and risk becoming another Wuhan or Italy (in which case medical services collapse and the economy is kaput anyway).
I have kept my regular monthly investments going, but will be very cautious about investing lump sums, until a vaccine is widely available.

How many tins have you stockpiled?

kinger101

HardCoreProgrammer2 said:

It is interesting that at the start of this thread, people were still spouting the "time in the market not timing the market" mantra, but this steadily declined as time went by and panic started to set in.

People on here said I shouldn't gamble as well, but I won on a 8/1 shot at Kempton Park.  So their collective wisdom based on historical evidence is obviously dead wrong.

city_of_london

HardCoreProgrammer2 said:

I am very lucky to have got out relatively unscathed.

Your market timing will have succeeded if you buy back in at a lower price than you sold (also taking missed dividends into account). You haven't bought back yet, so we don't yet know whether it will succeed. Please do keep us posted, whatever you do next.

John464 said:

why didn't you tell us before the correction, instead of after?

It's not so much that we don't believe you, as that: if markets had gone up next after you sold, would you have posted at all? Perhaps you would, but many people wouldn't: people tend to report their successes, and clam up about their failures.

Stargunner

I sold all my equities on Monday morning. I will be buying back in, but not yet because I think things  will get worse before they start getting better. Bought some more gilts and bonds for the time being.