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Halifax ... 1.7% rise MOM

edited 30 November -1 at 1:00AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
60 replies 1.2K views
triathlontriathlon Forumite
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edited 30 November -1 at 1:00AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/December-2019-House-Price-Index.pdf

I am really sorry, yet again, to the more pro crash and destruction fans, but these are the real figures and it's not me or nobody else being "uber bullish"

I seriously thought we would now be flat lining for a while or a little worse, but it seems as if even I am too bearish these days.
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Replies

  • stehoukstehouk Forumite
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    Tut...i blame it on Brexit, was hoping for a humdinger of a hpc this year.
  • triathlontriathlon Forumite
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    stehouk wrote: »
    Tut...i blame it on Brexit, was hoping for a humdinger of a hpc this year.

    Don't beat yourself up mate, there are plenty out there who have been waiting up to 20 years for one, no kidding:)
  • edited 9 January at 11:03AM
    stehoukstehouk Forumite
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    edited 9 January at 11:03AM
    triathlon wrote: »
    Don't beat yourself up mate, there are plenty out there who have been waiting up to 20 years for one, no kidding:)

    Iv'e bought and sold many times over the years and always managed to time the market (more luck than judgement) but iv'e been renting for a few year's now and will probably have to buy the house i'm living in now this year (landlord selling it i think) and house prices in my area are only going one way and that's up. doh!:(
    Problem is i will not retire in the property and will only live in it for approx 5-8 more years and i could end up losing a chunk of money if a crash happens after i have bought it .
  • MaxiRobriguezMaxiRobriguez Forumite
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    triathlon wrote: »
    https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/December-2019-House-Price-Index.pdf

    I am really sorry, yet again, to the more pro crash and destruction fans, but these are the real figures and it's not me or nobody else being "uber bullish"

    I seriously thought we would now be flat lining for a while or a little worse, but it seems as if even I am too bearish these days.

    Month-on-month changes subject to more bias than long term figures. 4.0% on same period last year also subject to same bias.

    The average M-O-M change across the year is around 0.2% by the looks of it and the average change on same period last year is floating just under 2%. Those are the figures which should be used at headline level but they're harder to understand for the simpletons in the world so 4% it is :money:

    What it does show, and what should be entirely obvious to everyone, is that in a low interest rate environment and no current recession, house prices aren't going to fall, regardless of how expensive they are on salary ratios.
  • RelievedSheffRelievedSheff PPR Forumite
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    stehouk wrote: »
    Iv'e bought and sold many times over the years and always managed to time the market (more luck than judgement) but iv'e been renting for a few year's now and will probably have to buy the house i'm living in now this year (landlord selling it i think) and house prices in my area are only going one way and that's up. doh!:(
    Problem is i will not retire in the property and will only live in it for approx 5-8 more years and i could end up losing a chunk of money if a crash happens after i have bought it .

    That's the risk you take with property.

    No one can see into the future and see what house prices are going to do.

    We were unlucky with our last house (our first house purchase) as we bought right at the beginning of 2008 just before prices fell. We really didn't do well out of that house and finally part exchanged it for a new build in April last year for just £5k more than we originally bought it for in 2008!

    But we had somewhere to live and by plugging away at the mortgage payments we managed to build up a decent bit of equity in the property so it really didn't matter that the end sale price was not much higher than our purchase price.
  • Rich2808Rich2808 Forumite
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    So Halifax are reporting 17 times the percentage rise Nationwide reported for December (1.7 vs 0.1) and three times the annual percentage rise for 2019- (4% vs 1.4%).

    https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2019/Dec_Q4_2019.pdf

    Who are we to believe?

    Does this reflect different regional trends as Halifax tend to have more customers up north generally buying cheaper homes whereas Nationwide was traditionally a southern operator. Because I doubt the housing market trends are the same in Belgravia as Blyth Valley or the same in Surrey as in Sunderland - a 1% rise can vary between £10,000 and £500 depending on the locality!

    Wouldn't it be nice if we just had one index - that was accurate - and gave full data by local authority area? Rather than inconsistent data?
  • MaxiRobriguezMaxiRobriguez Forumite
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    Rich2808 wrote: »
    So Halifax are reporting 17 times the percentage rise Nationwide reported for December (1.7 vs 0.1) and three times the annual percentage rise for 2019- (4% vs 1.4%).

    https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2019/Dec_Q4_2019.pdf

    Who are we to believe?

    Does this reflect different regional trends as Halifax tend to have more customers up north generally buying cheaper homes whereas Nationwide was traditionally a southern operator. Because I doubt the housing market trends are the same in Belgravia as Blyth Valley or the same in Surrey as in Sunderland - a 1% rise can vary between £10,000 and £500 depending on the locality!

    Wouldn't it be nice if we just had one index - that was accurate - and gave full data by local authority area? Rather than inconsistent data?

    December is a low volume month anyway, add an election and Brexit into the mix and you have the possibility of large % swings either way because of lack of volume.

    General advice for any sort of trajectory monitoring is to ignore short term and variations above standard deviations and see what medium/longer term is. In this case, medium term is house prices are flat-ish over the last few years but over decade and longer house prices are up. You don't need hindsight to say that's probably going to be true over the next few years and decades respectively, and if you're holding fire on a house purchase or sale waiting for something to change then I'd suggest revisiting expectations because otherwise you'll be waiting a long time.
  • fewcloudyfewcloudy Forumite
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    triathlon wrote: »
    https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/December-2019-House-Price-Index.pdf

    I am really sorry, yet again, to the more pro crash and destruction fans, but these are the real figures and it's not me or nobody else being "uber bullish"

    I seriously thought we would now be flat lining for a while or a little worse, but it seems as if even I am too bearish these days.

    Obsessed much?
    Feb 2008, 20year lifetime tracker with "Sproggit and Sylvester", 0.14% + base for 2 years, then 0.99% + base for life of mortgage...the interest rate was 5.5% in 2008...
  • triathlontriathlon Forumite
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    fewcloudy wrote: »
    Obsessed much?

    Unbelievable.

    I put a factual article on housing on a housing forum and the critical trolls come out. And yet endless anecdotes from lets say the more downbeat flood this forum and it goes unchecked:)

    Just read another post on this forum minutes ago that just said "property is now overvalued and it will be undervalued one day"... THAT'S IT???:rotfl:

    No evidence, facts or reports, "it just will Guv" approach
    Some very funny people on this board
  • blue_eyesblue_eyes Forumite
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    Rich2808 wrote: »

    Wouldn't it be nice if we just had one index - that was accurate - and gave full data by local authority area? Rather than inconsistent data?

    You could try the land registry actual sold data at
    http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi/explore although the most recent couple of months always get revalued/revised as more data comes in each new month, affecting the average,

    Can choose month-on-month or year on year, and choose a specific local authority.

    Of course it comes out a bit later than the halifax and nationwide numbers. Works two months back, so December has Oct19 data, mid Jan the Nov data will be out.
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