Halifax ... 1.7% rise MOM

Skeptical_Saver

stehouk wrote: »

Iv'e bought and sold many times over the years and always managed to time the market (more luck than judgement) but iv'e been renting for a few year's now and will probably have to buy the house i'm living in now this year (landlord selling it i think) and house prices in my area are only going one way and that's up. doh!:(
Problem is i will not retire in the property and will only live in it for approx 5-8 more years and i could end up losing a chunk of money if a crash happens after i have bought it .

Am I being thick or is that not literally how a free open housing market works?

Everyone wants house prices to be low when they buy and high when they sell. Everyone wants to be a millionaire too, but you know...:rotfl:

Rich2808

blue_eyes wrote: »

You could try the land registry actual sold data at
http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi/explore although the most recent couple of months always get revalued/revised as more data comes in each new month, affecting the average,

Can choose month-on-month or year on year, and choose a specific local authority.

Of course it comes out a bit later than the halifax and nationwide numbers. Works two months back, so December has Oct19 data, mid Jan the Nov data will be out.

Sorry - am aware of the Land Registry data.

I was thinking more of independent data i.e. not produced by vested interests who have a direct investment in talking up the housing market (i.e. government agencies, rightmove, Halifax, Nationwide). Same with forum posters who post details on house price data when it shows rises but not when it falls and vice versa - as evidence of a supposed boom or impending crash.

On the most recent LR data prices rose last year by over 8% in Hyndburn but reportedly fell by over 11% in Kensington and Chelsea - but prices in the latter on average are 12 times higher. Is there a boom in Hyndburn - cos everyone is trying to sell up in K&C to relocate there? Clearly not!

Just means these national averages are meaningless!

In the end the only house price that matters personally is the price of the house you want to buy and the one you are trying to sell in the town you live in or want to live in.

RelievedSheff

The land registry has no vested interests. It is a record of house and land purchase transactions!

There is no more accurate data than that.

Rich2808

RelievedSheff wrote: »

The land registry has no vested interests. It is a record of house and land purchase transactions!

There is no more accurate data than that.

Even they make adjustments and assumptions due to transaction volumes and differential prices across the UK and within boroughs - even their figures are a statistical estimate.

This £40 million house in Camden will do wonders for that borough's average price in the month it is sold! There is a flat which has been on the market for over a year in the same borough for only £380k - not sure it will be much comfort to that owner that down the road another property is selling for 100 times as much!

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/luxury/property/london-super-mansion-britains-most-expensive-home-for-sale-for-40-million-a135656.html

triathlon

Rich2808 wrote: »

Even they make adjustments and assumptions due to transaction volumes and differential prices across the UK and within boroughs - even their figures are a statistical estimate.

This £40 million house in Camden will do wonders for that borough's average price in the month it is sold! There is a flat which has been on the market for over a year in the same borough for only £380k - not sure it will be much comfort to that owner that down the road another property is selling for 100 times as much!

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/luxury/property/london-super-mansion-britains-most-expensive-home-for-sale-for-40-million-a135656.html

Oh the great conspiracy

A terraced house in SW19 Wimbledon is not really £800,000 today , it's really only really £177,000 from when the doomsters were calling the inevitable property crash

movilogo

Assuming Brexit is happening, it will reduce immigration. This will reduce demand, which in turn will drive down prices.

One can argue non EU immigration won't go down, but non EU immigrants can't always get permanent residency later and hence may not be willing to buy properties in UK unless they get settlement rights.

So, in short term, house price can only go downwards.

lisyloo

movilogo wrote: »

Assuming Brexit is happening, it will reduce immigration. This will reduce demand, which in turn will drive down prices.

One can argue non EU immigration won't go down, but non EU immigrants can't always get permanent residency later and hence may not be willing to buy properties in UK unless they get settlement rights.

So, in short term, house price can only go downwards.

I don’t agree with your logic.

Immigration is not the only factor that affects house prices by a long shot.

Population changes also.
Average household size.
Buying Behaviour e.g. second homes.
Investment (foreign buyers)

Are all factors.

E.g. imagine household size changes from average 2 to average 1 then we have double the demand.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

I don’t agree with your logic.

Immigration is not the only factor that affects house prices by a long shot.

Population changes also.
Average household size.
Buying Behaviour e.g. second homes.
Investment (foreign buyers)

Are all factors.

E.g. imagine household size changes from average 2 to average 1 then we have double the demand.

Ending or even changing FOM (not politically possible to fudge this one IMO) plus banks getting much more prudent about lending are two massive negatives for bubble prices, BTL demand will be hit hardest IMO, because of the increasing threat of voids, and seeking to deny these realities would just put someone in the same category of denial as the guy who starts all the threads about a website that banned him probably over a decade ago - it is cult like denial, a bit like the ghastly Remain/Deny Democracy campaign that has been waged for the last 3+ years and finally just ran out of Denial Juice.

Rich2808

movilogo wrote: »

Assuming Brexit is happening, it will reduce immigration. This will reduce demand, which in turn will drive down prices.

One can argue non EU immigration won't go down, but non EU immigrants can't always get permanent residency later and hence may not be willing to buy properties in UK unless they get settlement rights.

So, in short term, house price can only go downwards.

I think house prices are actually more a function of interest rates and money supply.

In Ireland prices collapsed by 50% in 2008 and 2009 - as the banks nearly collapsed and stopped lending money so recklessly. The population of Ireland kept rising.

Same happened in Spain.

Both ended up with an excess of houses. Now banks are lending big time again the prices have shot back up.

Put interest rates back up to pre 2008 levels and end help to buy - and prices would fall in the UK irrespective of population. Won'r happen - but it isn't all about the population. London only reached the same population it had in 1939 a few years ago - and back then you could buy a house for a couple of hundred pounds then!

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Ending or even changing FOM (not politically possible to fudge this one IMO) plus banks getting much more prudent about lending are two massive negatives for bubble prices, BTL demand will be hit hardest IMO, because of the increasing threat of voids, and seeking to deny these realities would just put someone in the same category of denial as the guy who starts all the threads about a website that banned him probably over a decade ago - it is cult like denial, a bit like the ghastly Remain/Deny Democracy campaign that has been waged for the last 3+ years and finally just ran out of Denial Juice.

What’s your evidence for banks getting more prudent?
I personally know of massive investments going on (multi million).
Are you saying it’s actually happening or is it a prediction?
If the former provide relevant links.
If the latter then what’s it’s based on.

Yes I agree that being 100% blind to the risks is just as bad as being scared to do anything. I don’t know any investors or landlords who are blind to the risks they are taking.
A balanced is required that allows people to get on with their lives and take sensible balanced decisions whilst tolerating some risk.