Halifax ... 1.7% rise MOM

Thrugelmir

RelievedSheff wrote: »

Up until the last few months wage growth was out stripping house price growth so it wasn't that!

Helped by a lift in the Minimum Wage.

Be another sizable lift this April.

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time wrote: »

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/235669-40-apr-!!!!!!-martin-lewis-warning-for-anyone-currently-overdrawn/

Less, or more prudent from the banks?

Sailtheworld wrote: »

That's not evidence.

Why not take a peek at the BoE website and you'll be able to see what's actually happened with consumer credit? i.e. downward trend for overall consumer credit since brexit but mortgage lending flat.

Of course the last official data release was November 2019 so you might well be right that banks have become more prudent since then. We'll have to wait and see if you're correct - why not make a diary note for 3rd Feb when December lending data comes out and let us know how this prediction worked out?

Hey Crashy did you check the BoE lending data to see if that funny anecdotal feeling in your tummy turned into verifiable fact?

December mortgage approvals up. Increase in consumer growth rate. Zero evidence that the banks were tightening lending in December.

Just another dud prediction. If you can't predict with any accuracy what happened in December by late January you might want to consider how good your powers of prediction are. That gut feeling you now have about Coronavirus causing a global credit crunch isn't a sign that you're seeing into the future - more a sign you probably need to take a dump.

triathlon

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/january-2020-halifax-house-price-index.pdf

And yet another MOM and YOY rise for January

I haven't posted a new thread as these regular monthly rises seem to be upsetting a lot of bearish regulars on this board who seem to think posting continual facts as "ramping and being Bullish".

Even most of the more pro housing investment types know that there had/has to be a flattening or even a slight reversal of prices since about a year ago, but it just does not seem to want to go into reverse. With Boris and a more pro business agenda now on the cards and Corbyn now history I just wouldn't know where to put my money now.

"Bubble", don't be so daft

lisyloo

movilogo said:

Transactions have been falling due to brexit uncertainty.

Or could be as simple as price became too high and buyers simply can't afford anymore. If income does not keep pace with house price rise, there has to be a point when the price elasticity rubber band will snap.

Since the election prices and volumes have been rising, so your argument is not now supported by the data.

i agree there is a point of i affordability, I just don’t agree that transactions fell because we got there, simply because there has been a turnaround since the election.

triathlon

And now RICS
https://www.mortgageintroducer.com/rics-continued-improvement-in-market-activity
It's seriously not looking good for some of the guys on this board, I was until just a few months ago as bearish as most reasonable people could be, but I really don;t know now, just hoping it does not take off too much like I suspect it will now, that will do nobody any good in the long run and could threaten the UK economy

lisyloo

There was a lot of pent up demand.
i hope rents don’t rise in London but maybe with a number of freelancers leaving (ir35) it will be okay.

triathlon

Another big monthly rise with Rightmove again this month, that is practically all the indicies now showing big rises over the past few months. And before the expression "uber bull" crops up yet again, I am just posting FACTS, not any of this "norovirus will crash the UK property market" nonsense which will turnout just like the other 1000's of "black swan events", in fact it's improving already.
I seriously thought we were in for a minor downturn last year, yes I was bearish, even sold a few properties as a safety net which I now regret. All I can say now is the trend is your friend, a few more good months and anything could happen this year

triathlon

And yet another one in this time the much respected LR
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2019
Up MOM and YOY, as good as saying the UK is now in for years of flat lining or better. This feels like the early 2000's again, but little too early to be sure. These different indicies should all be getting their own threads, but I know that upsets some of the doommongers

NoelC

triathlon said:

... This feels like the early 2000's again, but little too early to be sure...

It certainly sits well within the timing of the 18 year property cycle

Have a listen to this podcast from Propertyhub - where they are predicting the next 5-7 years will see a big uptick. Not surprising, given the slowdown in the market in recent years:

https://propertyhub.net/podcast/how-to-invest-over-the-next-7-years/

Jonbvn

triathlon said:

And yet another one in this time the much respected LR
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2019
Up MOM and YOY, as good as saying the UK is now in for years of flat lining or better. This feels like the early 2000's again, but little too early to be sure. These different indicies should all be getting their own threads, but I know that upsets some of the doommongers

Anecdotally, I am seeing a definite increase in houses in our local area coming onto the market. Some asking prices seem optimistic (IMHO). However, it is too early to reliably identify a trend.