Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Two pieces from "analysts", but you might be forgiven for thinking that they were NOT talking about exactly the same data, in this case from Arrowhead's Phase 2 SEQUOIA trial of fazirsiran to treat patients with AATD:

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Reports Underwhelming Data From Inherited Disease Study

ARWR: Encouraging Results for Phase 2 SEQUOIA Trial…

Arrowhead dropped 19% on Monday, but has since recovered much of the ground.

The observant among you might notice that the positive piece was write by a PHD. If you read the other one, there is actually some quite good data:

"All three doses reduced total liver Z-AAT with a median reduction of 94%"

The fact that the placebo arm showed seemingly similar results in terms of the biopsies that are supposed to gauge liver scarring, to those given fazirsiran, is not very significant as David Bautz, PhD points out. Biopsies are known to be hit and miss, plus this was only a very small trial with not many patients.The phase 3 trial will have more patients so should be a bit more clear in this respect. This is one of the reasons for P2s - to get an idea what obstacles will be encountered in P3s, and how to over come them. Arrowhead are breaking new ground, and unforeseen bumps in the road are just part of the territory.

It's important to point out that there is no effective treatment for AATD, apart from a liver transplant. 94% reduction in total liver Z-AAT, along with no significant side effects, is no small feat in light of the previous statement.

This would be a tough P3 trial for Arrowhead to do on it's own, but Arrowhead has very cleverly partnered with Takeda who have a great deal more experience brings something like this to market, and will pay for the trial (expensive!) as well. Along the way, Arrowhead gets (not insignificant) milestone payments too, meaning it can fund it's more lucrative wholly owned assets.

It is going to take a while, but Arrowhead is still fast in biotech terms, and with this latest data it adds to my conviction that ARWR is still a great place to be invested right now - as long as you have a long-term investing horizon, and are happy to ride a volatile roller coaster!

BrockStoker

Time for an update on Amyris. Some of you may have noticed that AMRS has lost a lot of ground in recent months, mainly because investors are worried that it will run out of cash, which of course is a worry for many companies that are in the early stages of growth right now. CEO Melo had promised that a strategic transaction (the sale of a molecule) for $500M would complete by the end of last year, however, because the deal is for $500M the SEC has to give it's nod, which is just a formality.

The market on the other hand seems to think that a deal is not likely, so AMRS is currently priced for bankruptcy. This completely ignores Melo's record for making deals, which has been flawless - he has always come through with very favourable deals for Amyris.

The market also seems to have ignored the fact that Amyris intends to make another two strategic transactions/molecule sales this year, and that both it's brands and ingredients have literally been selling out. Amyris is very close to breaking even and becoming a profit making company.

Melo has cut it exceptionally fine, perhaps too close for comfort for some, but I believe this has created the best opportunity so far for AMRS investors, so I have been buying again. I already had 18K AMRS shares, at an average price of something like $4.50 or $5 per share. In the last few weeks I've added almost another 6K shares, and brought my cost per share down to $3.69.

The next week or 3 should be interesting. It seems as though the stock may already be running up in expectation of the deal closing! This just as markets are getting back into "risk on" mode. AMRS could be about to make some significant moves.

BristolB

That is quite a position You have built up. I have managed to lower my average to around $2.05 on 8500 shares, mainly thanks to Euroclear (strange how things work out sometimes)and some lucky trades. I am reluctant to add more as I am around 10% of my portfolio!

Amyris is certainly very high risk and I have written this money off in my mind -only way I can hold this. However, if JM can deliver on these strategic transactions he has talked about over the next year or two, ie not just the imminent transaction, but others as well, I doubt the  share price will stay depressed at these levels. GLTU.

BrockStoker

BristolB said:

That is quite a position You have built up. I have managed to lower my average to around $2.05 on 8500 shares, mainly thanks to Euroclear (strange how things work out sometimes)and some lucky trades. I am reluctant to add more as I am around 10% of my portfolio!

Amyris is certainly very high risk and I have written this money off in my mind -only way I can hold this. However, if JM can deliver on these strategic transactions he has talked about over the next year or two, ie not just the imminent transaction, but others as well, I doubt the  share price will stay depressed at these levels. GLTU.

Good to hear the Euroclear issue worked to your advantage. Apparently my transfer to II has now (in the last 2 days) been agreed by both platforms (HL had been dragging it's heels).

Like you, I also look at this as a potential write off. I think I will likely take some profits early should the price head up to around $6-10, with the aim of ending up with a few K of effectively free shares. The only thing that really worries me now is further dilution.

Good luck to you also.

sevenhills

BristolB said:

Amyris is certainly very high risk and I have written this money off in my mind -only way I can hold this. However, if JM can deliver on these strategic transactions he has talked about over the next year or two, ie not just the imminent transaction, but others as well, I doubt the  share price will stay depressed at these levels. GLTU.

Amyris is looking poor now, at 1.15
Looking at it's financials, it has more liabilities than assets. A good price, if it recovers?

mika_dm

One that didn't work out.

Biotech Company Amyris Files for Bankruptcy

https://www.investopedia.com/biotech-company-amyris-files-for-bankruptcy-7629225?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral

Richard1212

We have regularly been told ( and shown graphics in endless detail) over several years on this forum that both Amyris and Arrowhead are the dream team in the Biotech Sector.

Both are complete failures----one of them down by over 30% from a year ago and heading to the bottom; and the other one a bankrupt loser when, as recently as the start of 2023 ,we have been told that both companies had a real chance of pulling up and creating great profits. I think it's time we accepted on this forum that nobody should listen to amateurs raving about individual biotech companies when even experts in the sector agree that it is just too volatile and is more like purchasing lottery tickets than investing.

My portfolio manager stays away from the sector. I hold many Astra Zeneca shares and seen them increase by nearly 100% over the past 5 years; and 40% gain from my  Johnson & Johnson shares over the same period : representing a great deal of money into my coffers  :

 ..........BUT there is a big difference between biotech sector and pharmaceutical sector !   

sevenhills

Richard1212 said:

We have regularly been told ( and shown graphics in endless detail) over several years on this forum that both Amyris and Arrowhead are the dream team in the Biotech Sector.

 ..........BUT there is a big difference between biotech sector and pharmaceutical sector !   

Should we all be looking to invest in proven companies that are making a profit and paying a dividend?
I am certainly more of a gambler than an investor, my knowledge is minimal, but growing.
There must be lots of people/software out there that can diggest the facts and predict market swings.

wmb194

Richard1212 said:

We have regularly been told ( and shown graphics in endless detail) over several years on this forum that both Amyris and Arrowhead are the dream team in the Biotech Sector.

Both are complete failures----one of them down by over 30% from a year ago and heading to the bottom; and the other one a bankrupt loser when, as recently as the start of 2023 ,we have been told that both companies had a real chance of pulling up and creating great profits. I think it's time we accepted on this forum that nobody should listen to amateurs raving about individual biotech companies when even experts in the sector agree that it is just too volatile and is more like purchasing lottery tickets than investing.

My portfolio manager stays away from the sector. I hold many Astra Zeneca shares and seen them increase by nearly 100% over the past 5 years; and 40% gain from my  Johnson & Johnson shares over the same period : representing a great deal of money into my coffers  :

 ..........BUT there is a big difference between biotech sector and pharmaceutical sector !   

The first post makes it clear there are big risks in this space, "I don't want to give anyone the impression here that they could make money doing this - it's risky even if you know a bit about the sector, and I'm prepared to loose (sic) all or most of what I invested. Only invest in what you understand!"

Btw, in your thread from the other day you haven't been back to tell us how you managed to buy and sell shares in Waitrose and Asda.

Richard1212

sevenhills said:

Richard1212 said:

We have regularly been told ( and shown graphics in endless detail) over several years on this forum that both Amyris and Arrowhead are the dream team in the Biotech Sector.

 ..........BUT there is a big difference between biotech sector and pharmaceutical sector !   

Should we all be looking to invest in proven companies that are making a profit and paying a dividend?
I am certainly more of a gambler than an investor, my knowledge is minimal, but growing.
There must be lots of people/software out there that can diggest the facts and predict market swings.

In answer to the highlighted quote above, my answer is "Yes" unless you are rich enough to take the gambles. The Biotech Sector is no better than backing a 10-1 at Kempton Park or spending £200 on the Lottery on Saturday evening.