Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Amyris is at it again!

Amyris Acquires Naomi Watts’ Onda Beauty

While it is good to see all these brands being acquired, I do hope they are not over-stretching themselves too much. After another nibble yesterday I'm now sitting on over 15k of AMRS shares. With earnings approaching fast, I'm hopeful that some positive earnings news will lift the share price.

While the Amyris share price has been languishing, the past few days have been great for Syros Pharmaceuticals. I only have 4k of shares, but nice to see a small bit of green in the portfolio, although I'm not convinced it will last long. I still have some dry powder left, but honestly can't see the sector getting that much lower. I'll be buying any more dips below what we've seen in the last few days/weeks, come what may. 

BrockStoker

As usual, I probably jumped the gun a bit (understatement) buying AMRS. I bought another 1K shares on Thursday to take my total to over 16K, so I decided to take a pragmatic view, and used the small rally after I'd bought on Thursday/at open today to sell nearly 3K of shares and claw back some dry powder (at a small loss). It's looking like a good move so far, and I managed to sell one batch of 1K @ $3.76 (where I set my limit - turned out to be top of the day's range). If I'm wrong and everything shoots back up in the next few days/weeks I still have plenty of shares, so no harm done, and another chance to average down my share price.

Now I'll try to resist buying till AMRS gets to around $2, if it gets there!

BrockStoker

Well, the fat lady has sung, at least for me when it comes to Evofem. The reverse split was inevitable - it was either that or be de-listed. Now my 9K shares have turned into 360 shares. Yesterday I was down ~95% on my EVFM holding. Not sure what it is today, but I'm not going to procrastinate too much over it. Perhaps one day Evofem will be successful (the product is still good - and EVO100 will be even better), but it was obviously way too early to invest. Live and learn! I will keep my shares, in case it ever does something, and as a reminder!

Of course it's been carnage once again in the markets, with biotech taking a big hit again (glad I no longer hold CLVS or ILMN!), and the portfolios are hitting new lows. The one standout for me, surprisingly, has been SYRS, which has held it's ground better than any other biotech I hold, even at times going green/break even for me in the last few days (pretty amazing for such a speculative little biotech in the current environment). It's like it's ready to go up, if given half a chance!

moneyfoolish

AMRS looking like a bit of a disaster, BS. Nobody seems to be happy with the latest results today. ARWR not looking a lot better to be honest and unless they manage to get something into production could be heading the same way! Hope you managed to take some profits on both.

adindas

moneyfoolish said:

AMRS looking like a bit of a disaster, BS. Nobody seems to be happy with the latest results today. ARWR not looking a lot better to be honest and unless they manage to get something into production could be heading the same way! Hope you managed to take some profits on both.

Almost all stocks are not doing well anyway, except Gold/gold mining, Oil & Gas, Staples, etc it doesn't matter how good they are. Let alone if you are talking about high growth stocks, biotech stocks.

NASDAQ composite is officially already in the bear market territory since a while ago down more than 27% from 52-week highs. S&P 500  currently drop 17% from 52-weeks high, close to bear market territory.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/79193112#Comment_79193112

Until the global supply chain, the war in Ukraine which effect the oil/Gas supplies and food supplies is over, until inflation is under control about 2%, expect this bear market trend to continue indefinitely.

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

AMRS looking like a bit of a disaster, BS. Nobody seems to be happy with the latest results today. ARWR not looking a lot better to be honest and unless they manage to get something into production could be heading the same way! Hope you managed to take some profits on both.

Yes, not a good day for AMRS. I bought more. I do think it will do well, once it gets going. It's close to breaking even, but expenses are going to be high at this stage of growth as it invests in it's future, and investors obviously don't like to see money being spent in times like this. I intend to add to my position if it dips significantly after this.

ARWR has fared a bit better. At least it hasn't tanked to the degree AMRS has. I continue to believe that they will eventually be rewarded, once something is FDA approved.

The sell off in both cases is more due to market conditions, and I think it's just a case of being patient once again.

BrockStoker

Arrowhead starting to look more attractive now perhaps - seeing some green at least:

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals GAAP EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.12, revenue of $151.8M beats by $29.65M

As for AMRS, it's just being aggressive, and it is certainly worth much more than it's current share price suggests. Just one of it's brands is worth more than the current market cap - an offer of $1bn was recently declined for the JVN brand. Their products and brands are selling so well they have not been able to keep up with production in some cases, and the new plant coming on line will remedy that. Even without the new plant they are still on track to break even before EOY, although positive cash flow may take another quarter or two. This company is easily worth $2bn (bare minimum value for the assets it owns), which translates to $10 a share. It's NOTHING like EVFM which does not even own its own manufacturing facility and is relying on a single product launch. This is why I'll continue to buy if it drops more, even though I'll have to buy in an GIA, which is not ideal.

BrockStoker

Arrowhead starting to look more attractive now perhaps - seeing some green at least:

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals GAAP EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.12, revenue of $151.8M beats by $29.65M

Not bad going for a biotech with out a single P3 under it's belt, or an FDA approval. When those things happen.. it should make up for quite a bit.

As for AMRS, it's just being aggressive, and it is certainly worth much more than it's current share price suggests. Just one of it's brands is worth more than the current market cap - an offer of $1bn was recently declined for the JVN brand. Their products and brands are selling so well they have not been able to keep up with production in some cases, and the new plant coming on line will remedy that. Even without the new plant they are still on track to break even before EOY, although positive cash flow may take another quarter or two. This company is easily worth $2bn (bare minimum value for the assets it owns), which translates to $10 a share. It's NOTHING like EVFM which does not even own its own manufacturing facility and is relying on a single product launch. This is why I'll continue to buy if it drops more, even though I'll have to buy in an GIA, which is not ideal.

BrockStoker

adindas said:

moneyfoolish said:

AMRS looking like a bit of a disaster, BS. Nobody seems to be happy with the latest results today. ARWR not looking a lot better to be honest and unless they manage to get something into production could be heading the same way! Hope you managed to take some profits on both.

Almost all stocks are not doing well anyway, except Gold/gold mining, Oil & Gas, Staples, etc it doesn't matter how good they are. Let alone if you are talking about high growth stocks, biotech stocks.

NASDAQ composite is officially already in the bear market territory since a while ago down more than 27% from 52-week highs. S&P 500  currently drop 17% from 52-weeks high, close to bear market territory.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/79193112#Comment_79193112

Until the global supply chain, the war in Ukraine which effect the oil/Gas supplies and food supplies is over, until inflation is under control about 2%, expect this bear market trend to continue indefinitely.

There are reasons to think markets are very oversold currently, and things are not as bad as they seem. More positive commentary here. I'd like to think this is bottom, but who knows. How far can you push down the valuations of companies below their intrinsic value, before something gives. All of a sudden, a deep recession looks unlikely.. I suspect it may happen in days, but that just a pure guess, and likely wrong.

How is your portfolio looking adindas? Have you been nibbling at all? My portfolios are a sea of red right now, but I intend to hold firm, come what may.

BrockStoker

Endra Life Sciences.

Amazing what an insider buy can do for a stock, even a speculative stock in a bear market.