Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

moneyfoolish said:

AMRS looking like a bit of a disaster, BS. Nobody seems to be happy with the latest results today. ARWR not looking a lot better to be honest and unless they manage to get something into production could be heading the same way! Hope you managed to take some profits on both.

Almost all stocks are not doing well anyway, except Gold/gold mining, Oil & Gas, Staples, etc it doesn't matter how good they are. Let alone if you are talking about high growth stocks, biotech stocks.

NASDAQ composite is officially already in the bear market territory since a while ago down more than 27% from 52-week highs. S&P 500  currently drop 17% from 52-weeks high, close to bear market territory.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/79193112#Comment_79193112

Until the global supply chain, the war in Ukraine which effect the oil/Gas supplies and food supplies is over, until inflation is under control about 2%, expect this bear market trend to continue indefinitely.

There are reasons to think markets are very oversold currently, and things are not as bad as they seem. More positive commentary here. I'd like to think this is bottom, but who knows. How far can you push down the valuations of companies below their intrinsic value, before something gives. All of a sudden, a deep recession looks unlikely.. I suspect it may happen in days, but that just a pure guess, and likely wrong.

How is your portfolio looking adindas? Have you been nibbling at all? My portfolios are a sea of red right now, but I intend to hold firm, come what may.

Looks as though you'll have at least a 3 year wait for Arrowhead to get anything to the market, BS. Even the optimists on Discord expect a long wait. All the high hopes from the pipeline seem to be disappearing or put back one by one! New ones appear but until they show they can actually get one to the market it will be a downward path!

adindas

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

moneyfoolish said:

AMRS looking like a bit of a disaster, BS. Nobody seems to be happy with the latest results today. ARWR not looking a lot better to be honest and unless they manage to get something into production could be heading the same way! Hope you managed to take some profits on both.

Almost all stocks are not doing well anyway, except Gold/gold mining, Oil & Gas, Staples, etc it doesn't matter how good they are. Let alone if you are talking about high growth stocks, biotech stocks.

NASDAQ composite is officially already in the bear market territory since a while ago down more than 27% from 52-week highs. S&P 500  currently drop 17% from 52-weeks high, close to bear market territory.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/79193112#Comment_79193112

Until the global supply chain, the war in Ukraine which effect the oil/Gas supplies and food supplies is over, until inflation is under control about 2%, expect this bear market trend to continue indefinitely.

There are reasons to think markets are very oversold currently, and things are not as bad as they seem. More positive commentary here. I'd like to think this is bottom, but who knows. How far can you push down the valuations of companies below their intrinsic value, before something gives. All of a sudden, a deep recession looks unlikely.. I suspect it may happen in days, but that just a pure guess, and likely wrong.

How is your portfolio looking adindas? Have you been nibbling at all? My portfolios are a sea of red right now, but I intend to hold firm, come what may.

Looks as though you'll have at least a 3 year wait for Arrowhead to get anything to the market, BS. Even the optimists on Discord expect a long wait. All the high hopes from the pipeline seem to be disappearing or put back one by one! New ones appear but until they show they can actually get one to the market it will be a downward path!

Unprofitable business will normally get punished by the Mr.Market during the bear market and high inflation. It does not matter how good they are. The stock like this will move to the upward direction if there a strong catalysts such as Successful drug test, Authority approval, etc

sevenhills

BrockStoker said:

As for AMRS, it's just being aggressive, and it is certainly worth much more than it's current share price suggests.

It went up 15% on Friday, is there a reason for this rise, or just high swings either way.

adindas

sevenhills said:

BrockStoker said:

As for AMRS, it's just being aggressive, and it is certainly worth much more than it's current share price suggests.

It went up 15% on Friday, is there a reason for this rise, or just high swings either way.

I believe this the general stock market trend due to published good PCE Figures. It is discussed here

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6361258/why-the-rally-today#latest

Many high growths stocks made rallies yesterday and the day before yesterday when this figure was released.

I have not done a search but I do not think because of catalysts. Normally in Biotech stock if there is a major catalyst such as Successful drug / treatment test, approval from authority the move is enormously. I have seen the move could be 10x in one day. Brock Stoker has a good knowledge and watch the Biotech stocks closely. So could probably see any other news??

Voyager2002

Does anyone know what happened to EVFM? I saw that they issued new shares and in one day there was a 62 per cent fall. At one point I was recording a 99.9 per cent loss on my initial investment, which is pretty spectacular. My holding now is probably worth less than the commission I would pay on selling it.

tom9980

Voyager2002 said:

Does anyone know what happened to EVFM? I saw that they issued new shares and in one day there was a 62 per cent fall. At one point I was recording a 99.9 per cent loss on my initial investment, which is pretty spectacular. My holding now is probably worth less than the commission I would pay on selling it.

They did a reverse split and just about managed to hold $1 for the required 10 days to remain listed on the Nasdaq. Then at the end of that 10th day they immediately raised funds by issuing new shares my understanding is the average of the shares issued + warrants valued them at about $0.45 and the $26m they raised probably wont last much more than 6-9 months!. Also they have yet to confirm they complied officially with the Nasdaq's requirements so they may still be delisted. Now if they get delisted a bunch of their debt becomes immediately due and the company likely go bankrupt.

JohnWinder

BrockStoker said:

It does look like we have seen the bottom in biotech!

Seems you were just 2 months and 15% early in hoping for that one, by the look of the NBI index since March.

I'm guessing you picked up a few SRNE shares ..

Three green days in a row now (if today holds up). It's looking more like the bottom has come and gone to me.

Is it SRNE that’s down 54% since those three green days in February?

Moe_The_Bartender

tom9980 said:

Voyager2002 said:

Does anyone know what happened to EVFM? I saw that they issued new shares and in one day there was a 62 per cent fall. At one point I was recording a 99.9 per cent loss on my initial investment, which is pretty spectacular. My holding now is probably worth less than the commission I would pay on selling it.

They did a reverse split and just about managed to hold $1 for the required 10 days to remain listed on the Nasdaq. Then at the end of that 10th day they immediately raised funds by issuing new shares my understanding is the average of the shares issued + warrants valued them at about $0.45 and the $26m they raised probably wont last much more than 6-9 months!. Also they have yet to confirm they complied officially with the Nasdaq's requirements so they may still be delisted. Now if they get delisted a bunch of their debt becomes immediately due and the company likely go bankrupt.

And now they’re going for another reverse split. How long before this pile of poo goes bankrupt?

adindas

Moe_The_Bartender said:

tom9980 said:

Voyager2002 said:

Does anyone know what happened to EVFM? I saw that they issued new shares and in one day there was a 62 per cent fall. At one point I was recording a 99.9 per cent loss on my initial investment, which is pretty spectacular. My holding now is probably worth less than the commission I would pay on selling it.

They did a reverse split and just about managed to hold $1 for the required 10 days to remain listed on the Nasdaq. Then at the end of that 10th day they immediately raised funds by issuing new shares my understanding is the average of the shares issued + warrants valued them at about $0.45 and the $26m they raised probably wont last much more than 6-9 months!. Also they have yet to confirm they complied officially with the Nasdaq's requirements so they may still be delisted. Now if they get delisted a bunch of their debt becomes immediately due and the company likely go bankrupt.

And now they’re going for another reverse split. How long before this pile of poo goes bankrupt?

It seems to me this EVFM is highly shorted. The cost to borrow (CTB) is now 30.7% in Interactive broker. Apart from CTB  I have not checked other shorting information.

As @ 31 December 2021, Total Assets $42.5m, Total Liabilities $142.1m; Current Ratio 0.14. So in case they go bankrupt they will not have enough assets to cover their liability.

But it is highly rated with analyst reflected in analyst price target (but not recent)

High Price Target    $30.00
Average Price Target    $14.02
Low Price Target    $3.50

The analysts might have information about the potential successful test ?

The question is that could they survive against this current bear market with potential leading to inflation/ stagflation??

But If there is a new catalysts such as successful trial the price movement could be enormous as it will come from both the catalysts and short-sellers covering their short position.

adindas

Biotech is high risk but also high reward. This is another biotech that Popu p 450%+ within two days and the party has not finished yet. Also keep in mind the market condition we are currently in.

Catalyst is very powerful in moving the Biotech stocks price

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-dna-initiates-analytical-validation-120300127.html