Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

@moneyfoolish Just short term noise today. The market remains irrational/oblivious to ARWRs potential, and till that changes, we are "just another risky biotech stock". The institutions know what's up, and it's in their interest to keep the price down so they can accumulate, but as someone said on the YHMB, they can only get their way for so long. Once people start to pile in the game is up, but we need those data readouts to be jaw droppers, which I think they will. Ultimately ARWR should make up for any other stocks that fail to perform, if you hold on long enough, but I think the same is true of AMRS - just temper your expectations for quick recovery/gains. AMRS may well recover soon, but could just as easily trade sideways for some months.

Another example of market shenanigans is the two PRs Sorrento got today, and only up a bit under 3%:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorrento-announces-phase-2-abivertinib-130000932.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorrento-enters-multi-cooperative-research-174600742.html

Again, not getting what it deserves - I'm down over 30% with it, but I'm confident it will come good eventually.

Great news for ARWR again today, BS, but share price slightly down. People on YHMB scratching their heads and can't understand why it hasn't zoomed!

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

@moneyfoolish Just short term noise today. The market remains irrational/oblivious to ARWRs potential, and till that changes, we are "just another risky biotech stock". The institutions know what's up, and it's in their interest to keep the price down so they can accumulate, but as someone said on the YHMB, they can only get their way for so long. Once people start to pile in the game is up, but we need those data readouts to be jaw droppers, which I think they will. Ultimately ARWR should make up for any other stocks that fail to perform, if you hold on long enough, but I think the same is true of AMRS - just temper your expectations for quick recovery/gains. AMRS may well recover soon, but could just as easily trade sideways for some months.

Another example of market shenanigans is the two PRs Sorrento got today, and only up a bit under 3%:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorrento-announces-phase-2-abivertinib-130000932.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorrento-enters-multi-cooperative-research-174600742.html

Again, not getting what it deserves - I'm down over 30% with it, but I'm confident it will come good eventually.

Great news for ARWR again today, BS, but share price slightly down. People on YHMB scratching their heads and can't understand why it hasn't zoomed!

It makes much more sense when you understand the market makes no sense (much of the time)

It's fairly standard behavior for ARWR as someone on YHMB pointed out, but the price has always caught up later. We still have more data to come, and perhaps some investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for that before they make a decision, but it also usually takes the big money a few days before they react to data, so I think we will see triple digits by next week, if not sooner.

Either way, whether WS realize or not, today's data was extraordinary. Arrowhead is breaking new ground. There's never been a better time to own ARWR stock!

Moe_The_Bartender

Don’t get too carried away. The biopsy data was for only tiny group of people. Not exactly conclusive.

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Don’t get too carried away. The biopsy data was for only tiny group of people. Not exactly conclusive.

Moe, yes, that's what the street sees. But they are not seeing the bigger picture, it seems. It may only be a small number of participants, but 84% mean response rate after two doses, with no significant side effects, for a condition that up till now has been basically untouchable is nothing less than extraordinary. Even if that were just pure luck, and they ran a bigger trial, which resulted in half that response rate, that would be something! The bar is actually very low here, in terms of what the FDA would accept for approval. Forget the run-up, ARWR could just step over this bar!

Quote:

"All five patients with suspected NASH showed a strong pharmacodynamic effect as measured by liver biopsy at Day 71. HSD17B13 mRNA was reduced by a mean of 84%, with a range of 62-96%
Two patients had a protein decrease of 92%
and 97%, while the other three patients’ Day 71 measurements were reduced to below the lower limit of quantitation.
ARO-HSD was well tolerated without any identified safety signals in healthy volunteers given a single dose of ARO-HSD at 25mg, 50mg, 100mg or 200 mg and in the 5 patients with suspected NASH given a single 100 mg dose of ARO-HSD on Days 1 and 29."

RNAi therapeutics chances of working/approval is basically a binary outcome - it either works or it does not. There is no in-between, in the same way as throwing a switch that is either off or on. The above data says it works, and all that further trials will show is that it still works. It's a similar modality that enabled Moderna to design and produce a working vaccine within 50 days of getting the genetic code of CV, although the tech is different. In fact, MRNA was being punished today (or yesterday), and ARWR possibly caught some stray flack from that due to investors incorrectly thinking because RNA is a shared characteristic, and so ARWR needed to be sold off too.

As for safety, thousands of participants have trialed TRiM RNAi therapeutics if you add them all up, and there have been no serious side effects - there's no reason to think that that will suddenly stop being the case, due to the similarity of the components used.

Anyway, I think this post from Chris on the YHMB pretty much sums it all up:

"Some perspective folks:  I know day of good news, ARWR never tends to respond like a typical biotech.  We also are not a one hit wonder so investors are not just clued into one data readout so we don't bounce like a typical biotech.  Just take a look at the XBI vs ARWR.  On Feb 8th, XBI was at $174 and ARWR was at $90.  That was the last of the COVID runup in Biotech.  Since that point the XBI has flatlined around $125 to $135 ($133 today) and we are right back at $90 again.  We have gone from $60 to $90 since the end of March.  I believe we are getting the respect from the street, but you have to look at it in more than a daily view.  I also believe we need to stop looking at ARWR as a Biotech but more as a technology company.  I as well as many folks on this board believe that ARWR is headed for $1000 per share in the next 5 years, but its going to have its biggest rises on approved drugs and commercialization.  I do think we will get a pop on Friday and feel we will be over $100 in July, but be patient.  This is a generational stock that you will pass down to your kids and grandkids. 
Long and strong and not selling a share.  Have a great rest of your week fellow longs!"

BrockStoker

Big day for Arrowhead. If it's going to pop in a major way, then it'll probably be today.

Also keeping an eye on SRNE after yesterday's pop on EU approval for it's CV test, and looking like there should be more PRs soon.

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Big day for Arrowhead. If it's going to pop in a major way, then it'll probably be today.

Also keeping an eye on SRNE after yesterday's pop on EU approval for it's CV test, and looking like there should be more PRs soon.

Maybe today or, possibly tomorrow, when Arrowhead have an AAT presentation at 6:15 EST, BS?

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Big day for Arrowhead. If it's going to pop in a major way, then it'll probably be today.

Also keeping an eye on SRNE after yesterday's pop on EU approval for it's CV test, and looking like there should be more PRs soon.

Maybe today or, possibly tomorrow, when Arrowhead have an AAT presentation at 6:15 EST, BS?

Yes. AAT 06:15 EST, Saturday. Again, no guaranteed pop, but I believe we should at least start to drift upwards. It's still great going for a biotech that has not even initiated a phase 3!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Big day for Arrowhead. If it's going to pop in a major way, then it'll probably be today.

Also keeping an eye on SRNE after yesterday's pop on EU approval for it's CV test, and looking like there should be more PRs soon.

Maybe today or, possibly tomorrow, when Arrowhead have an AAT presentation at 6:15 EST, BS?

Yes. AAT 06:15 EST, Saturday. Again, no guaranteed pop, but I believe we should at least start to drift upwards. It's still great going for a biotech that has not even initiated a phase 3!

https://ir.arrowheadpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arrowhead-presents-additional-clinical-data-investigational-aro

Looks like good news to me, BS and the Yahoo forum seems to think so but we shall see if the market is impressed soon enough. I've already seen plenty of announcements which I think have been good news arrive without a substantial increase in the share price so I wouldn't make any prediction!

Adyinvestment

I picked up some ARWR Friday.

Just wanted to say I will be blaming you Brockstocker if I lose my cash...

Just kidding 

BrockStoker

@moneyfoolish - Yes, once again very good data. It is tempting to make short term predictions, but usually futile - more fun than anything to try to guess, and see if the guess is right. This is why I would not touch options. Easy to get caught out. At least by holding long you don't get penalized if the share price takes longer to get to where you expect.

@Adyinvestment - No pressure then Congratulations to you and all holding ARWR stock. It is effectively a buy and forget stock (once you've done your DD), but I can't help but be glued to every development - it's a performance none of us are likely to ever see again IMHO. ARWR, with it's TRiM platform effectively has the biopharma sector by the short n curlies. A few more short/sharp tugs should get some attention, if we have not got it already. Hold on tight to your shares!