Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Tad from YHMB just found this:

https://7investing.com/articles/rnai-is-setting-a-high-bar-for-gene-editing/

Looks like they are starting to catch on!

NTLA just posted data that suggests it's knockdown is on par with TRiM, but it's not going to matter! Too little, too late. Will be interesting to see market reaction over the next few hours/days given all the new data, AND perhaps a whole bunch of investors with a NEW perspective on RNAi vs CRSPR vs the rest!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Tad from YHMB just found this:

https://7investing.com/articles/rnai-is-setting-a-high-bar-for-gene-editing/

Looks like they are starting to catch on!

NTLA just posted data that suggests it's knockdown is on par with TRiM, but it's not going to matter! Too little, too late. Will be interesting to see market reaction over the next few hours/days given all the new data, AND perhaps a whole bunch of investors with a NEW perspective on RNAi vs CRSPR vs the rest!

NTLA up over 50% pre-market so a huge impact compared to any of ARWR recent announcements.

Moe_The_Bartender

ARWR down 2% in pre-market trading.

moneyfoolish

Moe_The_Bartender said:

ARWR down 2% in pre-market trading.

And ALNY down nearly 10%!

BrockStoker

Yes, big news for NTLA, however investors are still not seeing the big picture!

Unfortunately ALNY and DRNA are both inextricably linked with ARWR in the heads of many investors, so if they get hammered, we usually catch some stray flack. That should start to change though. For ARWR, with so many catalysts at the moment, I think we will see the dip bought into much more so than ALNY.

Everything is up in the air again - lets see where things fall (no pun intended)!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Yes, big news for NTLA, however investors are still not seeing the big picture!

Unfortunately ALNY and DRNA are both inextricably linked with ARWR in the heads of many investors, so if they get hammered, we usually catch some stray flack. That should start to change though. For ARWR, with so many catalysts at the moment, I think we will see the dip bought into much more so than ALNY.

Everything is up in the air again - lets see where things fall (no pun intended)!

A few on the ARWR board taking the opportunity to buy more today. Have you looked at ACRX? Seems very good news on that one.

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Yes, big news for NTLA, however investors are still not seeing the big picture!

Unfortunately ALNY and DRNA are both inextricably linked with ARWR in the heads of many investors, so if they get hammered, we usually catch some stray flack. That should start to change though. For ARWR, with so many catalysts at the moment, I think we will see the dip bought into much more so than ALNY.

Everything is up in the air again - lets see where things fall (no pun intended)!

A few on the ARWR board taking the opportunity to buy more today. Have you looked at ACRX? Seems very good news on that one.

If BNGO had had a bigger pop today I might have sold and bought more ARWR - been trying to think of a good way to add more, and so far that seemed like the best option, but no pop.

I've been playing catch-up today since my connection is dire - no idea what ACRX is but trying to find out!

BrockStoker

Loving what I'm seeing/hearing regarding Arrowhead, however it's easy to see why investors are not in a mad rush to buy ARWR, if you look at the link one poster on YFMB pointed out:

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/arrowheads-aro-hsd-chances-of-progressing-to-next-stage-rises-by-five-points/

With so much misinformation/conflicting information and in at least some cases using outdated/no longer valid information, to the average investor, ARWR still looks risky and overvalued. As someone else replied, rather than the low probabilities suggested there, SLN (our numbers are likely better than theirs, but on par with numbers ALNY has posted in the past) posted these probabilities of success at each phase:

Phase 1:
GalNAc RNAi - 51% vs. others - 9%

Phase 2:
GalNAc RNAi - 56% vs. others - 17%

Phase 3:
GalNAc RNAi - 67% vs. others - 53%

As also pointed out, it raises questions on just how much is baked into the share price - my guess is very little!

There is also another big reason to hold on even tighter (or buy more) to your ARWR shares, as was pointed out by another poster. As I keep mentioning, being out of the liver, and in other tissues is very important. I was wrong. It's HUGE! CA is pushing hard to get the all important indications outside the liver, with good reason. It's something I hadn't realized before, but it's not just our RNAi competition who are struggling to get out of the liver, but also gene editors (eg CRSP).

This means we are definitively ahead of our competition for extra-hepatic indications at least - even if they (the competition) announced they had cracked it tomorrow, it's at least 2-3 years to get clinical trials up and running. Then there are the questions about the long term implications of gene editing - the genome is damaged in the process of editing. I think that the FDA will want to see long term followups to the trials (at least 5-10 years), and even then it's possible something could go wrong still further down the line. Watch out when reality hits NTLA/CRSP investors!

Whoever can hold on to their ARWR shares till the market realizes these things will be very happy, but the market obviously isn't going to make it easy for jittery investors who don't understand what they own - if it was that easy, everyone would be making a fortune. However it isn't that hard either - basically understand what you own (in this case, what the science/data means in the context of the competitive landscape - OK this part is not going to be easy for everyone - it does help if you can find others who have a good understanding), and ignore all the noise/don't sell.

NTLA and CRSP are having their moment in the spotlight. Ours will come sooner or later, but it won't be just a moment when investors realize we are just around the corner for an approval, and for NTLA/CRSP investors it could be a decade away, with no light at the tunnel in sight for extra-hepatic indications. ARWR is the only game in town IMHO!

Edit to add: Having said that, with important data readouts due imminently, and the possibility of "what we don't know", I would not rule out some big upside in the near term, but I'm not necessarily expecting it.

2nd Edit to add: The key is (and always has been) DELIVERY. Getting that right is enabling ARWR to go where no others have gone before. As someone pointed out on the YHMB, getting into the liver is easy (almost everything the body does not require ends up there), but safe delivery to other tissues is much harder. I think we might see some nice upside as the new tissue data reads out, but just a hunch - certainly the more different tissue readouts we can accumulate, the more heads we should turn. Tumors, could be a jaw dropper.

Cus

Not good news today...

BrockStoker

Cus said:

Not good news today...

Yes, the first bad news in years, sadly. Have to keep in mind it's a voluntary pause in a trial with rats. It might be nothing, or it might have some implications. The market reaction is going to be overdone by the looks of it. Remember, there is much more to ARWR than just one drug! Once again I'm looking at buying, if I can come up with some spare cash!

The irony is that the market never assigned $20+ for ENaC in the first place! A pause does not equal a fail, but it's being treated like one.