Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

what did she expect?

I'm wondering the same. Hopefully she will learn from her mistakes.

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

what did she expect?

I'm wondering the same. Hopefully she will learn from her mistakes.

Not sure she will get the chance. Announced another share dilution after market closed and currently has dropped over 24% to less than 1$!

Moe_The_Bartender

We all make mistakes and if you don’t, you’ll never learn anything. If I had been unwise enough to be still holding shares in this dog, I would dump them for whatever I could get. I doubt this will be the last call.

csgohan4

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

what did she expect?

I'm wondering the same. Hopefully she will learn from her mistakes.

Not sure she will get the chance. Announced another share dilution after market closed and currently has dropped over 24% to less than 1$!

make that over 32% down and valued at 0.86, oh dear. For those who invested, I think it is as good as lost now. 

You can certainly cut your losses, but if you put in at 5$, there's not going to be much change from 0.86 a share

Another reason why biotech is not as easy to invest. DYOR

BrockStoker

I suspected there might be a reply or two waiting for me here today

This was always a possibility unfortunately. I was hoping for a deal and cash from a partner (perhaps that will still come), but one way or another EVFM was going to need more cash.

There's no point in selling now IMHO - I'm just going to wait. I still don't think it's likely to go to zero, but if it does, so be it. Hopefully it will recover, even if that seems further away now (it probably isn't assuming this cash raise is successful).

moneyfoolish

csgohan4 said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

what did she expect?

I'm wondering the same. Hopefully she will learn from her mistakes.

Not sure she will get the chance. Announced another share dilution after market closed and currently has dropped over 24% to less than 1$!

make that over 32% down and valued at 0.86, oh dear. For those who invested, I think it is as good as lost now. 

You can certainly cut your losses, but if you put in at 5$, there's not going to be much change from 0.86 a share

Another reason why biotech is not as easy to invest. DYOR

I bought around 5$ and have just dumped it. Got £145 for my original £1000! I had kept it all the way down for long term recovery but don't think it has a hope of surviving so have (very slightly) cut my losses.

tom9980

I think baker brothers buying more tells me that something will be sorted out with their toxic warrants. Less concerned about that situation at the moment.

There should be enough cash until Christmas so I have taken a punt and bought a small position at $0.83 which I intend to flip on any decent spike. There is still hope for a celebrity endorsement or buyout, even a management change would cause a spike now.

BrockStoker

Apologies for the delayed response. Up to my eyeballs here at the moment!

@moneyfoolish Sorry to hear you couldn't hang on any more. I'm still holding out, but can understand you not wanting to with this much pressure. I'd suggest your main error was rushing in too fast when the price was too high. Again, it's understandable. I have been guilty of the same mistake. Sometimes it pays to rush in, but I'm finding, more often than not, unless you know something to the contrary, you are better off watching/waiting for a better entry point. You did well holding on this long IMHO, but if you can couple that with a better entry point, then your ride should be a little less rough.

@tom9980 Good for you! I would pick up a few more myself at these prices if I had some spare cash in my ISA/SIPP. Still a gamble of course, but with the successful cash raise, the odds of a win have gone up, and the price of tickets has come down - it's a no-brainier for those that can stomach a healthy dose of risk.

This is just a quick post, but before I disappear again I just want to say to all reading this who are holding Arrowhead stock, it's worth reading the last 4-5 days worth of posts on the ARWR YF message board. There is a lot going on right now, and once again, all the signs are that we are on track (or better!), and ARWRs position is significantly stronger than ever before. The two main points to note are:

1. Janssen's $10m payment to ARWR is another big vote of confidence, suggesting they like what they are seeing in the currently progressing trials (they get to see the data long before us). It also opens the door to "additional $600+ milestone MILLIONS into potential collections with mid-teen royalties." as WyattKAP said. Keep in mind also that Janssen gets the bill for the clinical trials. It usually costs around $200m to bring a new drug to market, but Janssen is pulling out all the stops for these trials, and probably pouring in much more than $200m. So you can see that BP are rolling out the red carpet for ARWR.

2. The acceptance of ARWR's late breaking EASL (in late June) abstract ("late breakers" are only accepted if there is "impressive" data) relating to NASH suggests we have another blockbuster! NASH could easily once again be worth ARWR's current valuation, and no analyst (the "official" analysts at least - BioBoyScout has a much better handle on it than any other analyst IMHO) currently attributes ANY value to it (as far as I'm aware).

Also, to top it all off we have this:

https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/current-affairs/new-antiviral-with-99-9-pc-efficacy-against-coronavirus-developed-121051900688_1.html

I have no doubt ARWR can replicate those results, and they may be close to it already with their existing pre-clinical program. It's a big deal if they can crack this nut, but along with so many others, with more to come.. well, it's hard to see how the share price can remain outside the FOUR figure range, let alone under $100. I doubt it will stay under $100 for much longer, even if the choppy market conditions stay with us for a bit. Once again we are left waiting for the penny to drop for Wall Street, but when it actually does, don't be surprised if the "dong" it makes reverberates around the world!

Behind the scenes ARWR has recently been posting new positions they want filled, including notably, ocular specialists (although there has yet to be a formal announcement it's looking more and more like the eye will be the next target tissue), and accountants/finance specialists to manage the cash that will soon be rolling in. They have also already hired people with experience of speeding up the drug approval process, which along with the above par efficacy/safety should result in fast-tracked approvals, so I believe many will be surprised how quickly ARWR grows over the next 1-3 years, and the next leg of that journey is not much more than a month, or two, away.

So much for the quick post, but I may still be tied up for a while yet, so at least there is something to chew on in the mean time.

moneyfoolish

I've also been reading the posts on the Arrowhead Yahoo message board and is does seem as though they are expecting a fair bit of news in the next couple of months. There seems to be a fair number of posters on that forum who are very long term followers and who understand the technology. I saw this post today from one of them which was quite interesting.

"One thing is for certain, random people want you to sell your shares. Funny, really funny. I like honesty. Truth be told I sold sixty percent of my holdings last December due strictly to the markets. Since then I have done what I have always done in the stock market.....followed this company, why becuase I still own a significant amount of monetary value and the story has never been better. Why did I sell a majority?...Honesty. I felt the market was too loaded and at 36 I secured my retirement, my kids education, and gifts for others while still standing LARGELY tall. Why am I saying these things now? Becuase I personally secured many things through this investment but one thing I refuse to let go is the ideology that I am right and I am net early. I still hold many shares from sub two dollars and bought an equal amount at forty dollars when the AAT results were announced. Those shares near immediately doubled...I don't care... It means little...I was right on clear data where the market was sleeping.... Buying Dollars for Quarters. It is my opinion that this company will lead this field. I have, along with others said this since this company was a couple hundred million dollar market cap value. Some have seen it some will not. This Company will, like it or not be the next Amgen. I know that and for those reasons will own more of this company than I ever have.....I have done amazing things with my success for others but cannot ignore the things abound for this company irrespective of how I feel about the macro environment. While I wanted to wait for the extra hepatic data it does not matter......not to me.....it's coming and it's fine, may sound odd to some but it doesn't matter over the medium term Arrowhead's potential is near fruition, could we see a sell off sure but that will not change my mind. This Company is not going to be sold for numerous reasons I will not go into in my main post here...long enough...if you do not feel the monetization of 7B to 70B over the next three years is enough for your money then I damn sure don't know what to say. Instead I'll reflect on a past post from years ago and reiterate to know what you own. Really good chance the macro environment is getting ready to fade.....has NOTHING to do with this company. I will be a long steady buyer if those are the cards. Please do not pepper my post with a bunch of BS becuase 1 this is the only stock I hold in this market and 2 I hold much more than many institutions still. So why do I post here! Becuase through great conversation with quality people it is in fact possible to be "well ahead of it". I hope you all have an amazing Memorial day weekend. I am waiting on my 2022 CRF450 To get to my dealer so I can get off my 2020. Tomorrow is not promised!"

Also see that EVFM went up almost 6% on Friday. Some people seem to think the price will be pushed up to between 5 and 10 dollars before being dumped back down again! We shall see!!

Type_45

Wtaf??????
Is the OP Bill Gates?