Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

adindas said:

Did anyone manage to make huge profit on OCGN (Ocugen). I was up 670% yesterday in less than a month

I sold half my position yesterday.

I missed that one. You've done very well with it! I still think you'd do better if you spread your money less thinly, and backed only your highest conviction stocks. Having said that, if what you are doing is working, then why fix it?

It's also looking like another good day here, with a pop from ORTX after good data released:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORTX?p=ORTX

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

Did anyone manage to make huge profit on OCGN (Ocugen). I was up 670% yesterday in less than a month

I sold half my position yesterday.

I missed that one. You've done very well with it! I still think you'd do better if you spread your money less thinly, and backed only your highest conviction stocks. Having said that, if what you are doing is working, then why fix it?

It's also looking like another good day here, with a pop from ORTX after good data released:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORTX?p=ORTX

Do you still think EVFM and SRNE are good long term buys even after the very large increases lately? It seems at the moment that there are so many biotec companies posting huge gains and, surely, many of them are unsustainable?

Adyinvestment

BrockStoker said:

It's also looking like another good day here, with a pop from ORTX after good data released:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORTX?p=ORTX

I know next to nothing about Bio so do not invest but find this thread very interesting.
With the above ORTX and doing some basic research there is something I don't understand....where is the commercialisation? it seems that the treatments they are working on are for "rare" diseases - surely because the diseases are "rare" there will only be small numbers to treat and therefore even if successful only a small number of buyers? 

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

Did anyone manage to make huge profit on OCGN (Ocugen). I was up 670% yesterday in less than a month

I sold half my position yesterday.

I missed that one. You've done very well with it! I still think you'd do better if you spread your money less thinly, and backed only your highest conviction stocks. Having said that, if what you are doing is working, then why fix it?

It's also looking like another good day here, with a pop from ORTX after good data released:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORTX?p=ORTX

Do you still think EVFM and SRNE are good long term buys even after the very large increases lately? It seems at the moment that there are so many biotec companies posting huge gains and, surely, many of them are unsustainable?

I think both stocks have plenty more to run. Having said that, if something were to go wrong, there is further to fall, which is why I personally wouldn't buy at these levels, not that I think it's a big risk. IMHO both are capable of triple digit share prices, so still very good buys, although not quite as attractive as they once were.

I know what you mean about these big jumps seeming unsustainable, but in many cases they are sustainable. Keep in mind most of these stocks were undervalued in the first place (one of the main reasons I chose to buy), so initial jumps are just them catching up to where they should have been in the first place - after that they still have plenty of room to grow.

Personally, if I were going to pick a stock form this thread to buy again, my first choice would be ARWR since I have so much confidence in it growing into a monster. After that would be AMRS, as it shares some of ARWR's characteristics (good moat, leader in it's space, massive potential TAM), and because it's highly defensive, having products used in multiple sectors. It could turn into another J&J, but not focused on healthcare, and I think might hit a 4 figure share price given time.

SRNE won't loose you money as it has so much going on, at least in the short - medium term, but I'm not convinced it has a great future in the long term, although it might well do, so my plan would be to ride it till around triple digits, then re-asses. I think there is some risk with EVFM, but the potential for it to explode over the next few months is more than worth the risk. If it does take off, then it could get to high triple digits I think.

I am always torn between recommending shares which have already gone up for me, since I like to get in quite low, and usually don't buy later on unless I'm super-confident in a stock (eg ARWR). This gives me a margin of safety, but others who follow me and buy later might not get this same margin of safety. Having said all that, if I'm holding something, it's not because I think it's going to fall flat, and certainly with the stocks I hold now, I don't think you can go wrong if you are going to hold long term, but you might find some will show a loss for a while, and you have to be prepared to hold through this, or better yet buy more.

BrockStoker

Adyinvestment said:

BrockStoker said:

It's also looking like another good day here, with a pop from ORTX after good data released:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORTX?p=ORTX

I know next to nothing about Bio so do not invest but find this thread very interesting.
With the above ORTX and doing some basic research there is something I don't understand....where is the commercialisation? it seems that the treatments they are working on are for "rare" diseases - surely because the diseases are "rare" there will only be small numbers to treat and therefore even if successful only a small number of buyers? 

It' a good question you bring up. Basically, with rare disease therapies/drugs. because they are expensive (and risky) to develop, the only way a company can make a profit is to increase the price of the treatment accordingly. That means that drugs to treat rare deceases have some of the highest price tags. At the end of the day governments are expected to pick up the tab, and in many cases it's cheaper to do this than care for someone with a debilitating condition for years/decades, so despite the high price tag, it's actually quite an attractive option.

ultrasilvam

@BrockStoker do you have any companies specifically focused on anti-aging/longevity in your portfolio? Or do you know any worth considering, apart from AgeX and UBX? thanks

BrockStoker

ultrasilvam said:

@BrockStoker do you have any companies specifically focused on anti-aging/longevity in your portfolio? Or do you know any worth considering, apart from AgeX and UBX? thanks

Sorry, I don't know of any.

BrockStoker

A good day for ORTX (up 14.3% at close), but even better day for AMRS (up 14.9% at close) thanks to an encouraging conference call, which I missed/have yet to hear, but I hear it's a must listen, so I'll try to post a link when I find one.

A poster named "Guy" on the AMRS YF MB wrote this summing up:

Very very good news coming out of the call. Too much to describe here but here are a few tidbits. Pipette is going into 600 Target stores and a ton of CVS stores soon, China's clean beauty market will explode in the next 24 months and the deals are signed any just need final board approval. Will be worth around $400 million all in, including milestone payments, royalties etc. Oh, and they have 18 new molecules in active development. The supply chain they are replacing is volatile and non sustainable. 6 will be scaled in 2021 alone.

ARWR was up too (1.57%), so although SRNE and EVFM were down a bit today all portfolios were up, but my ISA/SIPP is still a little shy of the triple digit total value.

BrockStoker

I think there's been another two $100 or greater analyst price targets for ARWR posted since the last time I mentioned it here. The most recent is this from a Zachs analyst:

Conclusion:

Arrowhead is shaping up to have a very exciting 2021 with multiple data readouts in the next 6 months for the ARO-AAT, ARO-ENaC, ARO-HIF2, and ARO-HSD programs. In addition, the company will be initiating multiple clinical trials for ARO-ANG3 and ARO-APOC3. Lastly, we anticipate the initiation of a new skeletal-muscle targeted program and two more pulmonary programs before the end of 2021. By the end of the year, the company could have at least 11 clinical programs targeting four different cell types, which could result in enormous value creation for shareholders. We have moved our DCF model up a year and increased the probability of approval for ARO-AAT, ARO-APOC3, and ARO-ANG3. This has resulted in an increase to our valuation to $100, with the potential for further upside if there are positive results later this year from ARO-ENaC, ARO-HIF2, and/or ARO-HSD.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arwr-multiple-data-readouts-2021-152400796.html

The report is worth a read, although there is nothing there anyone having done their DD and following ARWR of late shouldn't know.

Again, I think these price targets are way over cautious, but as the trial data reads out there should be steady upgrades. Anything under $100 per share is a steal IMHO. ARWR should be around $200 per share before the year is out IMHO, but I'm holding out for $2000+ at least before selling, so the share price at the end of the year does not mean too much, as long as it's on track more or less - sometimes it takes Wall Street a while to catch up..

adindas

Senseonics (SENS)

Do your own DDs, this stock is awaiting FDA approval for a more Permanent Glucose Monitoring System for a longer period of 180 days. AFAIK they have very few (if any) competitors in the device like this. The revenue they will earn ?? well count how many people with diabetes in this world.

When it is approved, boom it is going to the moon.

When Approval fail it will plunge / dip but they still have product with shorter duration e.g 90 days which os already in the market and this device is still needed. So I believe it will go back to the previous high. So Risk/reward in IMO is much in favour of the reward. Also please be aware this one is a penny stock, so those who want the level of risk similar to Bond, Well known diversified index, please do not even touch it with a barge pole. But if you just throw £100 it is the money you could effort to lose.

I entered much earlier, so I got it at lower price from the current price.