Apple on track to become $2trillion company by December 2020?

Thrugelmir

Apodemus wrote: »

Kodak simply failed to grasp that it needed to move from being a chemical company to an electronics company.

Sounds so simple. But far from it. Can Apple TV compete with the likes of Disney Plus and their back catalogue, or Netflix or Sky. Totally different market , far harder to distinguish oneself and maintain the premium profit margins of the past.

[Deleted User]

sebtomato wrote: »

I would agree with that statement: Apple doesn't innovate in the sense that they are never first in the market to try new technologies (in effect, they buy those technologies/components from third-parties anyway). They just wait and see the outcome of other companies innovating. Apple's R&D budget is actually much lower than its competitors, in term of % of turnover.

Sometimes, they really lack insights/vision: for instance, they criticised heavily the Surface laptops from Microsoft, because it's tablets with keyboards and pens...just to do the same several years later (iPad Pro with the "amazing" pen).

The issue is that many Apple customers believe they have the latest and greatest technologies, and therefore are happy to pay a premium on their products. Great marketing but won't last forever.

Sorry to say but I hope that when people buy a product they like it because it’s great for them.

Like anything in life we can cherry pick statements people make to fit any narrative that we choose to push.

The simple fact is if a company makes something or delivers a service and no one wants to buy it they will eventually go out of business. Apple is doing okay in my book since I bought my 1st iPhone in 2009. Now I could have a negative outlook back then and said that the company is going to fail and not touch the iPhone with a barge pole. Then for every year after state that they will fail at some point. But nah I just went this phone feels right for me and never looked back.

jcontest

Prism wrote: »

Apple somehow needs to encourage someone like me to use its services because as it stands they make very little money from me even though in our house there are 3 iPhones, 2 Apple Watches and an iPad.

Uhhh...
I would say they made plenty of money off of you :P..

sebtomato

Deleted_User wrote: »

Sorry to say but I hope that when people buy a product they like it because it’s great for them.

Many people I know were absolutely convinced that their iPhone was great and was the best product available, even making fun of people with Samsung or other Chinese brands (referring to experience they had 5 years ago trying some slow laggy Android phones).

When it's time to renew their phone, and you give them a decent Samsung phone to try for a couple of days, costing a lot less, suddenly they realise it's as good, as capable, and they had been paying an "Apple tax" for many years. Nothing more satisfying than see that Apple smugness disappear.
Those people will not go back to Apple, and it was just about marketing and brand, as opposed to real product capability and value for money.

In the meantime, to mitigate that threat, Apple is doing whatever it can to lock its users to its eco-system, for instance not having iTunes on Android (meaning if you bought lots of music from Apple, it's difficult to switch) or more recently releasing a metal Credit Card that only works if you have an iPhone. If their products were simply the best, they wouldn't have to lock people in...

Brand and marketing are fine, but they can only be a business model for so long, and trends can reverse very quickly in technology. Not so many people will buy a £1,000 phone just for a brand, if a £500 is as capable (or possibly based on more recent technology).

Apple should invest massively in R&D, and product innovation, instead of relying on their band, but they are not to the extent they should, particularly having hundreds of billions of dollars in cash available. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers have thousands of engineers at work, and also control the full manufacturing process, while Apple has to buy the bulk of its components to third-parties (until they decide to stop supplying the very latest technology) and completely outsources its manufacturing.

It's quite clear who is going to win that smartphone battle in the next 5 or 10 years.

[Deleted User]

sebtomato wrote: »

Many people I know were absolutely convinced that their iPhone was great and was the best product available, even making fun of people with Samsung or other Chinese brands (referring to experience they had 5 years ago trying some slow laggy Android phones).

When it's time to renew their phone, and you give them a decent Samsung phone to try for a couple of days, costing a lot less, suddenly they realise it's as good, as capable, and they had been paying an "Apple tax" for many years. Nothing more satisfying than see that Apple smugness disappear.
Those people will not go back to Apple, and it was just about marketing and brand, as opposed to real product capability and value for money.

In the meantime, to mitigate that threat, Apple is doing whatever it can to lock its users to its eco-system, for instance not having iTunes on Android (meaning if you bought lots of music from Apple, it's difficult to switch) or more recently releasing a metal Credit Card that only works if you have an iPhone. If their products were simply the best, they wouldn't have to lock people in...

Brand and marketing are fine, but they can only be a business model for so long, and trends can reverse very quickly in technology. Not so many people will buy a £1,000 phone just for a brand, if a £500 is as capable (or possibly based on more recent technology).

Apple should invest massively in R&D, and product innovation, instead of relying on their band, but they are not to the extent they should, particularly having hundreds of billions of dollars in cash available. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers have thousands of engineers at work, and also control the full manufacturing process, while Apple has to buy the bulk of its components to third-parties (until they decide to stop supplying the very latest technology) and completely outsources its manufacturing.

It's quite clear who is going to win that smartphone battle in the next 5 or 10 years.

For goodness sake I’ve seen people claim PS4 better than Xbox and vice versa. I have seen people Claim Samsung better than huawei phones and vice versa. It’s natural for some people to do that but it is not evidence of how healthy a company is as a business.

It’s fascinating to me why people can’t just let others be. I think it’s wonderful that Android is out there and google keep developing the software. It’s great that Samsung build the phones they do and market them the way they do. The same goes for all the other phone makers.

Instead of worrying what other people buy with their own money just enjoy what you have. If you want to go on a mission to convert Apple customers to switch then maybe take a job in marketing for your favourite phone maker or start a YouTube channel.

I’m all for people arguing the merits if a company can double its stock value in a year based on rational level headed facts but your so blinded by what Apple stand for that you will find any far fetched reason as an indicator of Apple’s failure at being a business even though year in and year out they continue to offer a product and service that people enjoy.

Londrum

Do you remember when Buffet bought another big chunk of Apple shares a couple of years back (I’ve just looked up how much it was - 75 million shares). At the time I thought if he’s buying that much then it’s probably a safe bet to follow him, but after looking into it I thought I’d be better off putting it somewhere else. What’s happened since is amazing. I guess he knows what he’s doing!

sebtomato

Deleted_User wrote: »

For goodness sake I’ve seen people claim PS4 better than Xbox and vice versa. I have seen people Claim Samsung better than huawei phones and vice versa. It’s natural for some people to do that but it is not evidence of how healthy a company is as a business.

PS4 against Xbox is a bad example, since similarly priced.

Sounds like you are enjoying very much paying your Apple tax and don't like people telling you about it!

Anyway, the facts are:
* Most of Apple's profit are from the iPhone. They haven't found another product category to take over
* iPhone market shares are decreasing, and not making much dent in fast growing middle class countries like China and India
* The biggest market is the US, and is saturated now
* Prices of smartphones are decreasing due to increased competition

You can make your own conclusion on whether Apple will continue to grow at the same pace as before (and therefore ever reach a $2TB valuation) or will decline... Apart from speculation on Apple shares, the outcome seems to be quite obvious.

Username999

Do you remember when Buffet bought another big chunk of Apple shares a couple of years back (I’ve just looked up how much it was - 75 million shares). At the time I thought if he’s buying that much then it’s probably a safe bet to follow him, but after looking into it I thought I’d be better off putting it somewhere else. What’s happened since is amazing. I guess he knows what he’s doing!

It wasn't Warren Buffet who bought APPLE stock, it was one of Berkshire Hathaway's managers, Ted Weschler or Todd Combs.

BH has also sold some APPLE stock more than once.

Examples of Warren breaking his own rules:
Only buy what you understand, and never sell.

[Deleted User]

sebtomato wrote: »

PS4 against Xbox is a bad example, since similarly priced.

Sounds like you are enjoying very much paying your Apple tax and don't like people telling you about it!

Anyway, the facts are:
* Most of Apple's profit are from the iPhone. They haven't found another product category to take over
* iPhone market shares are decreasing, and not making much dent in fast growing middle class countries like China and India
* The biggest market is the US, and is saturated now
* Prices of smartphones are decreasing due to increased competition

You can make your own conclusion on whether Apple will continue to grow at the same pace as before (and therefore ever reach a $2TB valuation) or will decline... Apart from speculation on Apple shares, the outcome seems to be quite obvious.

I don't like people trying to gauge the success of a company on the back of a fag packet or making up any old excuse to try a dismiss millions of people buying habits as some sort of mis guided belief. Plus move the goal posts of their arguments when they get called out on such arguments.

sebtomato

To go back to the original topic:

Link: The Motley Fool (published yesterday, 5th Jan 2020: Apple Stock Is Really Expensive