Massive majority for the Tories, Goodbye housing crash for now

snowqueen555

There was never going to be a crash. Nothing will be able reduce demand outstripping supply short of a government scheme similar to what the soviets did.

triathlon

snowqueen555 wrote: »

There was never going to be a crash. Nothing will be able reduce demand outstripping supply short of a government scheme similar to what the soviets did.

exactly....

Thrugelmir

snowqueen555 wrote: »

There was never going to be a crash. Nothing will be able reduce demand outstripping supply short of a government scheme similar to what the soviets did.

Seems as if FTB's are returning to the market in numbers. With a declining interest in BTL.

MiserlyMartin

triathlon wrote: »

I don't agree with Brexit, but I accept it. This result now shuts up the hard right in the Tories who want a no deal and we can now relax in the knowledge that we will still have close ties with the EU.Yes Corbyn would have crashed the property market, but he would have crash the economy and country as well.

Property prices will not rise sharply now as most of us now know, but they won;t be falling either, a little at worse. What a seriously great day, might taken and early day off and let it sink in, property and land remains the greatest investment as it should and we can rejoice today that it will continue :):T:T

I agree with a lot of what you post but property and land are not the greatest investment. A crash is coming, when the next recession hits. You just have to look at the facts. If it wasn't for emergency low interest rates - property would be halved in value.

triathlon

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

I agree with a lot of what you post but property and land are not the greatest investment. A crash is coming, when the next recession hits. You just have to look at the facts. If it wasn't for emergency low interest rates - property would be halved in value.

What facts??

MaxiRobriguez

Presumably high price to salary ratios which in a lot of places in England are at record highs.

A lot will depend on what Johnson actually does with his stonking majority. In the days after the election I thought he would use that to return to a more centrist viewpoint and ditch the ERG, but events since mean a harder/no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out.

You'll probably find house prices do nothing again in 2020. Q1 will be the best period as the uncertainty from whether or not Brexit will be done is removed, people will get on with just living their lives again regardless of whether they think it's good or bad. But, going into summer with the transition period halfway through and no future trading agreement settled then people will start a wait and see approach again and prices will stall.

1% gain in 2020 seems the most logical conclusion, but with very real prospects of +/- about 5% of that figure depending what happens over the next sixth months.

lisyloo

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

Presumably high price to salary ratios which in a lot of places in England are at record highs.

A lot will depend on what Johnson actually does with his stonking majority. In the days after the election I thought he would use that to return to a more centrist viewpoint and ditch the ERG, but events since mean a harder/no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out.

You'll probably find house prices do nothing again in 2020. Q1 will be the best period as the uncertainty from whether or not Brexit will be done is removed, people will get on with just living their lives again regardless of whether they think it's good or bad. But, going into summer with the transition period halfway through and no future trading agreement settled then people will start a wait and see approach again and prices will stall.

1% gain in 2020 seems the most logical conclusion, but with very real prospects of +/- about 5% of that figure depending what happens over the next sixth months.

I agree with what youve said and in general I don't think property is a great capital investment right now (there may be local exceptions such as good income stream from student accom).


However miserlymartin was said "a crash is coming" and I'm not sure what facts there are that support that view.


Migration trends, house price to income ration, demand outstripping supply lead me to believe there will be a permanently high plateau in the short term.



property can be used for income and some property related businesses can provide good returns if that is your area of expertise e.g. student accom
I do know of a professional investing millions on the basis on income but there is proven demand for the student accom.


For ordinary folks starting BTL now, I'd say they've missed the boat but there will be plenty of amateur landlords whove bought at past prices still making a profit.


This is of course compleletely different to buying a home which is what most people are interested in. I'd say get on with it and the sooner you start the sooner you'll be mortgage free.

MaxiRobriguez

lisyloo wrote: »

However miserlymartin was said "a crash is coming" and I'm not sure what facts there are that support that view.

Houses prices across many parts of the country are out of sync with earnings and there's a very real prospect of a majority of millenials being unable to get on the ladder, or being unable to make the step up past the starter home. With 'facts' like these, the 'obvious' result is that at some point prices will start to revert to the mean.

However, people of the UK are of a rare ilk in that their show-off preference is very much the home, and more people in the UK think of investing as BTL than stock markets, bonds or anything else, which means there's perhaps a greater number of buyers, and a greater demand in those buyers, than perhaps there would be in other countries.

The reality is that until millennials start inheriting houses, house prices are likely to remain elevated simply because that's the way it is in the UK, even if it's a bit barmy. We'll see what happens in 20 years or so when the baby boomers are gone and the 40-50 year old millenials inherit a house they probably don't want. That's going to cause a lot of selling pressure on family homes and might mean the market corrects somewhat to a point whereby the initial cost of entry remains high but the gaps in the rungs of the ladder are much shallower than currently.

triathlon

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

Presumably high price to salary ratios which in a lot of places in England are at record highs.

A lot will depend on what Johnson actually does with his stonking majority. In the days after the election I thought he would use that to return to a more centrist viewpoint and ditch the ERG, but events since mean a harder/no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out.

You'll probably find house prices do nothing again in 2020. Q1 will be the best period as the uncertainty from whether or not Brexit will be done is removed, people will get on with just living their lives again regardless of whether they think it's good or bad. But, going into summer with the transition period halfway through and no future trading agreement settled then people will start a wait and see approach again and prices will stall.

1% gain in 2020 seems the most logical conclusion, but with very real prospects of +/- about 5% of that figure depending what happens over the next sixth months.

I personally think that is an accurate summary going into the near and medium future, in fact it is near to being identical to my predictions. With Corbyn now gone there is nothing that is going to threaten property prices all that much. If he had got in then yes I would have agreed with some of the more vocal property crash cult members, even now I would not bet against there being a majority in the UK that would like to see prices collapse. But the fact is that there is a very sizable minority in the UK who are making good money out of BTL rentals, but that sizable minority has 95% of clout and people in power and high positions that are just not going to let that happen.

Why do I know this, I know BTL people and I know what a ruthless game it is, they are just not going to throw it all away. Last example of this was just before Xmas and a small time landlord who had 4 properties, she was really sweet on the outside and did charity work in her spare time. One of her tenants tried to screw her over and lets just say I saw another side to her:( These guys are not just going to walk away without a fight

lisyloo

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

Houses prices across many parts of the country are out of sync with earnings and there's a very real prospect of a majority of millenials being unable to get on the ladder, or being unable to make the step up past the starter home. With 'facts' like these, the 'obvious' result is that at some point prices will start to revert to the mean.

However, people of the UK are of a rare ilk in that their show-off preference is very much the home, and more people in the UK think of investing as BTL than stock markets, bonds or anything else, which means there's perhaps a greater number of buyers, and a greater demand in those buyers, than perhaps there would be in other countries.

The reality is that until millennials start inheriting houses, house prices are likely to remain elevated simply because that's the way it is in the UK, even if it's a bit barmy. We'll see what happens in 20 years or so when the baby boomers are gone and the 40-50 year old millenials inherit a house they probably don't want. That's going to cause a lot of selling pressure on family homes and might mean the market corrects somewhat to a point whereby the initial cost of entry remains high but the gaps in the rungs of the ladder are much shallower than currently.

Well yes “at some point” of course there will be a crash, we all know that (Perma prop bulls are a convenient label for something that doesn’t exist like unicorns). Everyone believes there will be a crash at some point, but it may not come when people want it e.g. during their fertile years.

I’m 51 and yet to get an inheritance. Many elderly are now downsizing or going into nursing homes so not necessarily passing on family homes or even homes at all. My inheritance will come after paying off my mortgage (guaranteed) and probably after retirment so it’s unwise for anyone to rely on this. Better to be self reliant and try to sort yourself out even if that means sacrifice and having a couple of jobs and no treats for a while.

I don’t believe it will happen as you say.
Yes sure some will die in family homes.
Others will have retired to a retirement flat or be in a nursing home with no property or spent it all on care fees.
One things for sure, the age of getting an inheritance is increasing and the chances of some of it being spent on care are increasing.

The trend is for boomers to stay alive longer and spend more of it themselves.

Yes sure some will get an inheritance but not necessarily when they need it, for example could be after they’ve already retired.
If they have plenty they can pass it on to the next generation but it’s a minority that have a comfortable private pension and can afford to do that.