Massive majority for the Tories, Goodbye housing crash for now

MobileSaver

GDB2222 wrote: »

So, as long as there is enough space in the average dwelling for at least 1.5 people, there's space for the 373k population increase.

Since, nearly all dwellings can take at least two people, we are more than keeping pace with demand.

The obvious flaw in that argument is that just because a dwelling can fit a certain number of people in doesn't mean it will or even should. My home can comfortably house 16 people and has done for the last few days but for most of the year just two of us live here and when I first bought the place I lived here on my own.

Specifically your "nearly all dwellings can take two" is correct but only of practical relevance if it's enforced which of course it isn't; more and more people are living alone for longer periods and that is one of the factors which means demand is outstripping supply.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

plenty of unsold properties in the new and strongly opposed developments in the village they reported from, making the case for more building "even more debatable". The housing shortage is a myth, it always has been,

Just to be clear you are basing your entire "housing shortage is a myth" argument on the basis that one particular village in the UK has unsold properties? :rotfl:

For reference in my area of rural mid-Wales almost all properties are snapped up in weeks and in fact this year the trend has been for houses to be sold without even being listed by EAs. The few exceptions were kite-flyers and I heard over Christmas that two I personally know of have had serious offers made since BJ won his majority; anecdotal of course but it seems Brexit uncertainty really was holding people back.

GDB2222

MobileSaver wrote: »

The obvious flaw in that argument is that just because a dwelling can fit a certain number of people in doesn't mean it will or even should. My home can comfortably house 16 people and has done for the last few days but for most of the year just two of us live here and when I first bought the place I lived here on my own.

Specifically your "nearly all dwellings can take two" is correct but only of practical relevance if it's enforced which of course it isn't; more and more people are living alone for longer periods and that is one of the factors which means demand is outstripping supply.

There probably are statistics on that, one way or the other. We hopefully won’t need a separate dwelling for everyone in the country, so we can all live like hermits.

lisyloo

GDB2222 wrote: »

In the past, we have seen the trend start in London, then ripple outwards. I'm not sure why that should be, nor whether it will happen again.

In answer to your other question, I accept that there is a chronic shortage of houses. I'm just saying that that does not seem to be getting any worse. It may even be getting slightly better!

I think that link is broken now we have a lot of foreign investment in London. It’s become bricks and mortar deposit boxes rather than where people live. The fall in London has not rippled out so far.

There’s a shortage of affordable housing.
We were talking about the idea of lots of dying boomer family homes coming on to the market. I believe the effect will be diluted by people living longer, downsizing or being in nursing homes, but those family homes will not solve the housing crisis as they are not affordable starter homes. A lot of retirement flats require you to be a certain age e.g. 55. It might happen but I don’t see it as a practical solution for anyone to wait for boomers to die.

lisyloo

MobileSaver wrote: »

I heard over Christmas that two I personally know of have had serious offers made since BJ won his majority; anecdotal of course but it seems Brexit uncertainty really was holding people back.

My portfolio is up 16.45% annually today (no property funds).
That’s fact.
I’ve not seen that before and it’s been post election.
I do believe there is a wall of investment waiting.

(I didn’t vote Tory but it’s the best result for me personally)

triathlon

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Sky report today on homelessness and housing costs/availability even had to admit that there were plenty of unsold properties in the new and strongly opposed developments in the village they reported from, making the case for more building "even more debatable". The housing shortage is a myth, it always has been, the problem is price pushed up by years of cheap debt and banks unable to take the fallout if the market does crash leading to central banks suppressing interest rates too much for far too long in the hope that people will just keep borrowing, spending, and paying their mortgage.

I read you rants about "too much bad credit" and rather than think I am reading a post about something where the person thinks it is factual I am reading a prayer that it is so, and more so after two decades

triathlon

MobileSaver wrote: »

Just to be clear you are basing your entire "housing shortage is a myth" argument on the basis that one particular village in the UK has unsold properties? :rotfl:

For reference in my area of rural mid-Wales almost all properties are snapped up in weeks and in fact this year the trend has been for houses to be sold without even being listed by EAs. The few exceptions were kite-flyers and I heard over Christmas that two I personally know of have had serious offers made since BJ won his majority; anecdotal of course but it seems Brexit uncertainty really was holding people back.

I think he has also posted on another website that the earth is flat and that the world is only 5,000 years old

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver wrote: »

Just to be clear you are basing your entire "housing shortage is a myth" argument on the basis that one particular village in the UK has unsold properties? :rotfl:

For reference in my area of rural mid-Wales almost all properties are snapped up in weeks and in fact this year the trend has been for houses to be sold without even being listed by EAs. The few exceptions were kite-flyers and I heard over Christmas that two I personally know of have had serious offers made since BJ won his majority; anecdotal of course but it seems Brexit uncertainty really was holding people back.

So your counter argument is based on your experiences in rural Wales?

Crashy_Time

triathlon wrote: »

I read you rants about "too much bad credit" and rather than think I am reading a post about something where the person thinks it is factual I am reading a prayer that it is so, and more so after two decades

Two decades? I got interested in this stuff around the time of the 2008 meltdown, and so far the fallout has brought us Trump and Brexit, plus a horribly divided society in the UK, so I`m glad that you are happy with those outcomes.

Crashy_Time

triathlon wrote: »

I think he has also posted on another website that the earth is flat and that the world is only 5,000 years old

Those things are more likely than BJ saving the housing market as he goes head to head with the EU over trade and ends up at No Deal.