Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

The House of Lords is raising some interesting statements about EV's. Not sure I agree with the subsidy side now that prices are falling, but it may aid the smaller/cheaper end of the market, as this is still developing, and difficult on a profitability basis without massive scale. Hopefully that scale will arrive in the next few years.

But I think they are spot on that the Gov needs to counter all the mis-information being spread (especially in the UK press), and a battery health report or something along those lines may quash the nonsense about short lives. I was actually surprised that they found it repeated so much in their review - I guess hearing it each day, but knowing it's garbage, means I hadn't appreciated the hold it actually has on those being tricked/misled.

Turbo-charging the roll out of the charging infrastructure is pretty obvious, and revising the VAT rules for public charging (down from 20% to the 5% domestic rate) is also necessary and important.

Make used electric cars cheaper and tackle battery fears, peers tell ministers

Ministers need to intervene to boost the secondhand electric vehicle market and allay “uncertainty and concerns” over the health of their batteries, a House of Lords committee has said.

Peers on the environment and climate change committee urged the government to step up efforts to encourage electric vehicle adoption amid consumer jitters over the cost of vehicles, the longevity of their batteries and the availability of charging points.

Ministers should step in to tackle the disparity in upfront costs between EVs and petrol and diesel cars, and examine targeted grants to incentivise the purchase of electric cars, they said in a report. During their seven-month long inquiry, witnesses repeatedly called for a cross-industry battery health testing standard to provide “clear information and reassurance to consumers”.

Efforts to reach net zero appear to have been undermined by a series of moves by the governing Conservatives as the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, vows to end “anti-car measures”. Last year, Sunak delayed the ban on new petrol and diesel car sales from 2030 to 2035, a major U-turn on previous climate commitments.

Announcing the move, Sunak said that achieving net zero “is going to be hard”. The Lords said: “By emphasising the costs while failing to stress the benefits and robustly counter misinformation, the government is not building public confidence.

“The concern the government expressed to us about the scale of misinformation has not been matched by commensurate urgency in tackling it. Faced with conflicting claims and alarmist headlines, consumers need a go-to source of comprehensive, clear and balanced information.”

Martyn1981

All part of the inevitable transition I suppose. Will give folk another option for rapid charging. [I'm reading this as rapid charging (like a fuel stop), rather than slow charging whilst shopping, but there may be more info elsewhere.]

MFG buys Morrisons petrol stations and plans EV charging hub rollout

Motor Fuel Group (MFG) is buying 337 petrol stations from Morrisons and more than 400 associated sites to develop ultra-rapid electric vehicle (EV) charging hubs in a £2.5 billion deal.   

As part of the acquisition, Morrisons will take a minority stake of around 20% in MFG and enter into commercial and supply agreements with the company.

Melanie Shufflebotham, co-founder and chief operating officer at Zapmap, welcomed the news. "It's fantastic to see MFG partnering with Morrisons to deliver reliable, high-powered charging for electric car drivers across the country,” she said.

Martyn1981

Speaking of FUD and misinformation, Rosie has just publishhed a short and sweet vid on the subject, goes well with the list from Carbon Brief posted a while back.

EV Myths You Thought Were Facts

Electric vehicles are taking the world by storm, sparking conversations and controversies alike. Are they the green champions of the road or hidden culprits of environmental harm? Can they truly replace the roar of petrol engines without missing a beat? And is our infrastructure ready to support this electric revolution, or will it buckle under the pressure?

In this video, we're plugging into the heart of these debates. We'll explore what happens when innovation meets the open road, and whether the journey towards electric mobility is as smooth as the ride in an EV itself. Join me as we navigate through the electric landscape, separating fact from fiction with solid evidence and expert insights. It's time to discover the real story behind electric vehicles. Let's roll out!

Bookmarks:
00:00 Intro
00:36 We are running out of critical minerals
01:27 EVs will end the weekend
02:24 Join me at Everything Electric Australia
02:36 EV batteries can't be recycled
03:49 EVs will crash the power grid
04:57 Mining for battery minerals will destroy the environment

Martyn1981

This could be an incredibly important domino ..... or not, as info is sparse, so we will need to see how it develops. But Ethiopia is talking about banning the import of ICE cars. Whether this is for new and/or secondhand cars isn't clear.

A major driving force is actually the cost of importing fuel on the countries finances. Plus Ethiopia's leccy grid being mainly RE, it makes sense to move to EV's.

If ICE manufacturers start to lose more of these markets, then the impact on new and SH ICEV's could be interesting.

It begins: Ethiopia set to become first country to ban internal combustion cars

Ethiopia spent nearly $6 billion to import fossil fuels last year — with more than half of that spending going to fuel vehicles. In response, Ethiopia’s Transport and Logistics Ministries have announced that automobiles cannot enter Ethiopia, unless they are electric. (!)

Last February, the European Union approved a law that would ban the sale of combustion engine cars in its member states from 2035 — joining several US states, Canada, Japan, Singapore, India, New Zealand, and a number of other nations with similar bans already on the books (see chart, below). Ethiopia, however, isn’t waiting for 2035.

Ethiopia is trying to ban ICE vehicles now.

According to a news update from the parliament, Alemu Sime, the Ethiopian Minister for Transport and Logistics, announced the completion of the nations Logistics Master Plan Monday. Details were scarce, but he has announced that, “a decision has been made, that automobiles cannot enter Ethiopia unless they are electric ones.”

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Ethiopia is talking about banning the import of ICE cars.

IIRC, there was a post a short while back (in this thread I think) reporting on comments from Toyota that the EV was dead and ICE had a long and strong future because the developing world would always want low capital ICEs.

That and the news article linked reporting on Ethiopia's proposal can't both be correct.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Ethiopia is talking about banning the import of ICE cars.

IIRC, there was a post a short while back (in this thread I think) reporting on comments from Toyota that the EV was dead and ICE had a long and strong future because the developing world would always want low capital ICEs.

That and the news article linked reporting on Ethiopia's proposal can't both be correct.

Yep, that's my understanding of Toyota's position (hopes). They will sell their ICE, PHEV and HEV's into developing parts of Asia, Africa and S. America, as BEV's cost too much.

However, cheap and basic BEV's have been around for years in China, plus other parts of Asia and Africa. A major point they appear to have missed or ignored, is the development of cheap RE, and micro grids, especially from PV, as costs continue to plummet. So, like Ethiopia, there are also the running cost savings and balance of trade issues to consider.


Cleantechnica is currently publishing a report, in multiple parts, on the growth of BEV's in S. America. I was waiting till all the parts have been published before posting on here, but it starts with Argentina at a 'mighty' 0.08% of sales in 2023.

JKenH

The Ethipoian ban on ICE cars probably won’t directly impact Toyota. I was trying to get a bit more background to this and there already is a de facto ban on ICE imports so a formal ban is no surprise as explained by this Ethiopian resident on a Reddit forum.


As an Ethiopian, this isn't actually surprising. We are the "water tower" of Africa. Even the Blue Nile, which accounts to 85% of the water of the Nile originates in Ethiopia. So hydro power is the main electric power source of the country and is very cheap. You can charge an EV to full for less than 1 USD here.

ICE cars always had more than 150% import tax. A used throw away 20 year old Toyota Corolla is 25K USD here. The government removed most of the taxes on EVs so EVs here end up being cheaper than their ICE counterparts. There was fear of adopting EVs even after the tax reduction initially but EVs have taken off the past 2 years. A brand new ID3 is cheaper than a used 150,000 KM 20 year old Toyota Corolla here so it's a no-brainer.

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1aepw4m/ethiopia_to_ban_importation_of_nonelectric_cars/

I think Ethiopia has around 1.2 million cars on the road or around 1 for every 100 citizens so the economic impact on OEMs is limited. 

Will this, though,  be the first brick in the wall? Maybe. Ethiopia like Norway is blessed with hydropower as are many other African countries so, yes, the potential is there, but over what timeframe? There is of course also the influence of China throughout Africa and it will certainly suit their interests to encourage EV adoption. 

The problem with forecasting what will happen in the future is, though, fraught with problems. The rate of technological change now is so rapid we just can’t see what the world will look like in 20 years time.  We always tend to look ahead in terms of today's technology because we can’t imagine the future so we always get it wrong. After all 20 years ago no one took widespread EV adoption seriously (it had been tried and rejected by OEMs) or had even dreamed of smartphones so could not contemplate how they would revolutionise the world - never would I have imagined I could have a video call on my phone in real time with my family on the other side of the world and it effectively cost nothing. 

I am not making any predictions other than to predict that in 2044 the world won’t be a bit like we currently predict it to be. 

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

I think Ethiopia has around 1.2 million cars on the road or around 1 for every 100 citizens so the economic impact on OEMs is limited. 

I think we can expect the rate of car ownership in the developing world to expand rapidly, so this is a potentially far greater OEM impact than current sales suggest.

It looks like car ownership in UK is around 75%:
https://www.statista.com/forecasts/997796/car-ownership-in-the-uk

If Ethiopia grew to 50% car ownership over 10 years, that would be 50 million cars.  Quite a desirable chunk of sales.

shinytop

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

I think Ethiopia has around 1.2 million cars on the road or around 1 for every 100 citizens so the economic impact on OEMs is limited. 

I think we can expect the rate of car ownership in the developing world to expand rapidly, so this is a potentially far greater OEM impact than current sales suggest.

It looks like car ownership in UK is around 75%:
https://www.statista.com/forecasts/997796/car-ownership-in-the-uk

If Ethiopia grew to 50% car ownership over 10 years, that would be 50 million cars.  Quite a desirable chunk of sales.

Unlikely. A corrupt government that can't/won't feed a large proportion of its population never mind give them EVs. 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/09/tigray-ethiopia-war-drought-aid-suspended-hunger-crisis-death-desperation

JKenH

Looking at the Ten Years Development Plan https://mopd.gov.et/media/ten-year-document/ten_year_development_plan.pdf it seems the intention is to move the 1% of people who do have cars out of private transport. The intention is to increase cross country rail journeys by 466% and journeys by rail within the capital by 166%. Even air travel is being encouraged. 

I mentioned earlier how banning ICE cars would suit China’s policy. Ethiopia is a key part if its belt and road initiative and Ethipopia is modelling itself in China. 

You may be interested in this article.

Chinese involvement in Ethiopia

The Ethiopian–Chinese partnership has developed substantially over the past three decades. As Ethiopia lacked a comparative advantage in any economic sector, the country’s elite considered a strong state essential to guiding the private sector and preventing rent seeking. This led Ethiopia to base its developmental state model on Chinese experiences; China’s ability to back Ethiopia with foreign direct investment (FDI), and the ability to counterbalance demands from Western donors also proved appealing.

Collaboration deepened in 2005, when many Ethiopian elites viewed the disappointing election results as a consequence of too-rapid political liberalisation. They looked to China for a more authoritarian model favouring economic development over democratic reform, while partnering with the US to access high-tech surveillance.

https://www.clingendael.org/publication/designed-ethiopia-made-china-widening-partnership

I realise that posts with an anti Chinese sentiment are frowned upon (previous posts have been removed for being off topic) but it is hard to discuss EVs without mentioning what China is up to. I believe worldwide expansion of EV ownership/reduction of ICE vehicles on the road is a significant policy goal of China - not for climate change reasons but strategically.