Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

JKenH

ABrass wrote: »

Not entirely. The model 3 and Y share so many parts and manufacturing kit that you can build them on the same line. That's why they group them together. If they get loads of orders for nice profitable high end Model Y then they'll build those rather than lower margin model 3s. It will be a direct one for one change, until the newer lines are set up so they can provide more of either/both. That's not the Y cannibalising the sales of the 3. It'll take years to know if that happens when and if supply ever outstrips demand.

As for killing the model S and X sales, that isn't backed up by any numbers I've seen.

Here are some figures for deliveries in 2019. I don’t have any separate figure for sales and don’t know how Tesla record sales. It may be the same as deliveries but if production is diverted to M3 then that could impact sales/deliveries of S/X. The way Tesla divert deliveries to different markets makes it very difficult to establish regional trends and the same applies to the model mix. Judging purely by deliveries S and X appear to have been impacted by M3 rollout.

I believe Insideevs to be a reliable source.




Deliveries by model:

Model 3: 92,550 (new record, up 46%) and about 300,815 YTD (up 106%)
Model S/X: 19,450 (down 30%) and about 66,746 YTD (down 33%)
There is no change in the sales trend - Model 3 is going up reaching an amazing 300,000 sales in a single year, while the Model S/Model X duo continues to decrease.



https://insideevs.com/news/391065/tesla-production-deliveries-graph-q4-2019/

ABrass

JKenH wrote: »

Here are some figures for deliveries in 2019. I don’t have any separate figure for sales and don’t know how Tesla record sales. It may be the same as deliveries but if production is diverted to M3 then that could impact sales/deliveries of S/X. The way Tesla divert deliveries to different markets makes it very difficult to establish regional trends and the same applies to the model mix. Judging purely by deliveries S and X appear to have been impacted by M3 rollout.

I believe Insideevs to be a reliable source.




Deliveries by model:

Model 3: 92,550 (new record, up 46%) and about 300,815 YTD (up 106%)
Model S/X: 19,450 (down 30%) and about 66,746 YTD (down 33%)
There is no change in the sales trend - Model 3 is going up reaching an amazing 300,000 sales in a single year, while the Model S/Model X duo continues to decrease.



https://insideevs.com/news/391065/tesla-production-deliveries-graph-q4-2019/

That's a very superficial assessment of reality. It ignores the end of subsidies in the US, still their biggest market. The announcement of a new power train due this year. The fact that the Model 3 was already being shipped in significant numbers before that quarter which weakens your point and probably a few others as well.

That the S and X are down is true, but you said that the model 3 killed demand. There are other causes.

Even if the 1/3 decrease that year were entirely down to the 3 it isn't killed by it. They're still selling more of those than any other high end EV retailers if I'm not mistaken

Also model S and X production is more or less completely isolated from the model 3. They use entirely different production lines and batteries which a re the two biggest constraints.

1961Nick

The Model S numbers are now probably where they should be. It's similarly priced ICE competitors are the 7 Series, A8, S Class & XJ, all of which are traditionally slow sellers but have hefty profit margins. Until the appearance of the TM3, the S was probably able to do some business in the mid & small exec sector & artificially boost it's numbers that way.

Shorting TSLA used to be a guaranteed way to make a few bob, but those days appear to be over. You'd have to be pretty brave to bet against them today.

JKenH

ABrass wrote: »

That's a very superficial assessment of reality. It ignores the end of subsidies in the US, still their biggest market. The announcement of a new power train due this year. The fact that the Model 3 was already being shipped in significant numbers before that quarter which weakens your point and probably a few others as well.

That the S and X are down is true, but you said that the model 3 killed demand. There are other causes.

Even if the 1/3 decrease that year were entirely down to the 3 it isn't killed by it. They're still selling more of those than any other high end EV retailers if I'm not mistaken

Also model S and X production is more or less completely isolated from the model 3. They use entirely different production lines and batteries which a re the two biggest constraints.

Sorry, I wasn’t trying to make any point, just attaching an article (and what I perceived to be a reliable source link) with some numbers and offering an apology that the figures were deliveries not sales. I didn’t say anything about the model 3 “killing demand”. The only comment I made was that (as they were down 30%) deliveries of S and X appear to have been affected by M3 roll out. You may be right perhaps there is no causal link, it’s just the numbers are down.

Again, as I mentioned in another post you may have read what I posted and because I posted it assumed I was trying to be negative. I was just providing some numbers that you apparently had not seen.

ABrass

JKenH wrote: »

Sorry, I wasn’t trying to make any point, just attaching an article (and what I perceived to be a reliable source link) with some numbers and offering an apology that the figures were deliveries not sales. I didn’t say anything about the model 3 “killing demand”. The only comment I made was that (as they were down 30%) deliveries of S and X appear to have been affected by M3 roll out. You may be right perhaps there is no causal link, it’s just the numbers are down.

Again, as I mentioned in another post you may have read what I posted and because I posted it assumed I was trying to be negative. I was just providing some numbers that you apparently had not seen.

You'd said

I posted before about the new models coming online this year and already there has been a slew. Even looking at Teslas own figures, the model 3 sales killed the S and X effectively - well if you have to own a tesla you may as well own a cheaper one, or maybe they just reached their saturation points.
Same thing will happen with the Y which is why they group Y and 3 together for future predictions.

So no, not killed demand, just killed the cars entirely. But your latest post is more reasonable.

JKenH

ABrass wrote: »

You'd said



So no, not killed demand, just killed the cars entirely. But your latest post is more reasonable.

Ah, I see, you’ve confused me with Joe. I was aware of the new drive trains and hopefully the larger battery will put clear water between the 3 and the S/X.

I see Tesla like I see Apple. If I was going to spend £40/50k on a car it would be a Tesla.

ABrass

It's too much like hard work to read peoples names as well as posts!

Sorry Ken and Joe!

almillar

As there supposedly aren’t any moderators on this forum then either someone on this board is a member of the admin team or someone complained to admin

Not me, for the record. Everything I say to/about him is all over the forum for you to bore yourselves with. You'll find me agreeing with some stuff GA said, but also much disagreement. Mostly when he got numbers wrong or exaggerated them. When called out, he just moves onto something else. I guess his comments were 'marginal' AHAHA!!!


Anyone with a problem about GA's PPR should read zeupdater's post, referencing the 3 warnings.

Martyn1981

some snippets from rhis weeks carbon commentary newsletter that are loosely coonected to this thread, i think

2, Free public transport. A new study from Luxembourg researchers poured cold water on the idea that the Grand Duchy's plans for an entirely free public transport system from March 2020 would reduce car traffic. Other studies in the past have also shown that most of the increase in bus traffic in the growing number of cities with low or non-existent fares comes from pedestrians and cyclists, not car-users. My argument in 'What We Need To Do Now' is that free public transport needs to be married with plans to reduce the attractiveness of car use in cities, probably by introducing mileage charges as well as large car free zones and improved bus and metro services.


6, Electric delivery vans. UPS said it had agreed to buy 10,000 delivery vehicles from the UK’s Arrival and also invested in the company. This supplements the money raised from the Korean car makers Hyundai and Kai a few weeks ago. Competitor DPD indicated that 10% of its UK fleet will be electric by the end of 2020 and committed to purchase 300 Nissan e-NV200 vans (Thanks to Matthew Gregory).


8, ‘Peak Car’. Bosch is the world’s largest car components company. The CEO said ‘it could well be that we have passed the peak of automotive production’. After a poor 2019, Bosch sees continuing declines in sales at least until 2025. The reduction in the car market, combined with the rapid growth of electric vehicles, albeit from a low base, will put pressure on profit margins and increase required capital investments. Bosch also showed a new fuel cell for heavy vehicles this week, made for it by Swedish manufacturer Powercell. It said that ‘up to 20%’ of all electric vehicles in 2030 will use fuel cells to generate the electricity needed even though a fuel cell currently costs more than 3 times the price of a diesel engine.

EVandPV

A small step but in the right direction, ban on ICE cars brought forward to 2035 .......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123