Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Perhaps a bit of a Janus overload recently, but just watched this Fully Charged vid on them, and their conversions of diesel trucks to BEV's with swappable batts, and thought it was excellent.

Helped to clear up any thoughts I had regarding the reason for going with swappable batts. Simply put, these trucks are rated for very heavy hauling, of multiple trailers, up to 96tn, so presumably they will burn electrons faster, requiring more frequent stops, and longer charging times. Also Janus point out that customers can buy the batts, but they advise not too, as they can keep upgrading the batts as technology evolves.

Different scenario to the EU with 46tn BEV's and the US with 37tn BEV limits, but always fun to see different ways, that problems can be solved.

This GIANT Electric Semi Can Swap Out Its Batteries!

I guess useful would be how many litres of diesel the ice version would typically burn per shift/day as this would likely inform whether swap tech makes sense or not?

CKhalvashi

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Perhaps a bit of a Janus overload recently, but just watched this Fully Charged vid on them, and their conversions of diesel trucks to BEV's with swappable batts, and thought it was excellent.

Helped to clear up any thoughts I had regarding the reason for going with swappable batts. Simply put, these trucks are rated for very heavy hauling, of multiple trailers, up to 96tn, so presumably they will burn electrons faster, requiring more frequent stops, and longer charging times. Also Janus point out that customers can buy the batts, but they advise not too, as they can keep upgrading the batts as technology evolves.

Different scenario to the EU with 46tn BEV's and the US with 37tn BEV limits, but always fun to see different ways, that problems can be solved.

This GIANT Electric Semi Can Swap Out Its Batteries!

I guess useful would be how many litres of diesel the ice version would typically burn per shift/day as this would likely inform whether swap tech makes sense or not?

I still deem it wouldn't make sense.

The battery capacity of something like an e-Atego is more than sufficient for a mid-loaded truck on a long distance route. I'd suggest as long as it doesn't take more than an hour to charge at very high powers (440kW is the highest I've seen, in Ukraine at a rest stop) then you're good to go.

Reasonably 400km of motorway driving with a trailer at maximum weight is the maximum needed with these sorts of charge times.

The Ioniq is limited by charge capacity, not by current chargers. To Poland and back is the only time it's ever been rapid charged and the only time I wished this capacity was greater.

JKenH

New Nissan EV development plan to cut costs by 30%

The manufacturer claims the new approach, called X-in-1, will result in a 30% reduction in development and manufacturing costs by 2026, compared to 2019.   

Nissan says that core electric vehicle (EV) and electric powertrain components will be shared and modularized.

The manufacturer has developed a three-in-one powertrain prototype, which modularises the motor, inverter and reducer in EVs.

A five-in-one prototype, which additionally modularises the generator and increaser, is planned for use in its e-Power vehicles.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/manufacturer-news/2023/03/09/new-nissan-ev-development-plan-to-cut-costs-by-30

Martyn1981

Article on 'peak ICE' and 'peak oil'.

Peak ICEV sales were in 2017, but for a peak ICE fleet we need annual sales to fall below the number of retirements of older vehicles, so new sales need to fall below sales from around 15yrs ago(ish). Looks like the world ICEV fleet may have peaked around 2021.

Peak oil demand for transport though, is suggested around 2026/27. Not sure the reason for the lag, perhaps it's because vehicles have goten larger, with a shift to SUV's, so the newer vehicles consume more fuel than those currently ageing out. Not sure.

Another consideration is the impact on the oil industry. Whilst their market is greater than just petrol and diesel for road transport, this does suggest that worldwide demand may start, and continue to fall as we enter the second half of this decade. With no possible recovery, and a steady decline in demand, this could have significant impacts on the industry as a whole. Perhaps resulting in the financial failure of the most expensive extractions / dirtiest fuels (needing more refining), resulting in a saw-tooth decline 'curve' in prices - prices decline, a supply source shuts down, prices bounce a bit (supply and demand), then prices decline again. Rinse and repeat.

Bloomberg Calls “Peak ICE” Just As GM Offers Buyouts To Salaried Employees

Even adding in plug-in hybrids doesn’t change the picture very much, BNEF says. The market still would have peaked in 2017, as global sales in 2022 amounted to 72 million cars sold, which is still 16% off the high from] five years earlier. The trend in China is even more pronounced. Plug-in vehicles made up 26% of vehicle sales in 2022, while combustion models were off 28% from their 2017 peak. BNEF is expecting plug-in models to be around a third of all passenger vehicles sold in China this year. In Europe, sales of  internal combustion vehicles are down significantly from their peak.

Can Anything Reverse The Trend?

Forecasts for oil demand issued just a few years ago still assumed steady growth in sales of ICE vehicles well into the 2030s BNEF says, but that prediction is no longer valid. While sales of motor vehicles in Asia, India, Africa, and South America are increasing, many of them are plug-in hybrids or battery electric cars. Countries including Thailand and Indonesia are pushing to become hubs for battery and EV production.

It’s a similar story in India, where EVs are on the ascent and the government has big ambitions to build up a domestic industry. Sales went from 15,000 in 2021 to almost 50,000 in 2022, and BNEF is expecting the strong growth to continue this year.

JKenH

Octopus EV and BYD agree landmark deal as manufacturer launches in the UK

The agreement will see Octopus EV purchase 5,000 new EVs from BYD for UK customers over the next three years – the largest deal of its kind for the EV disruptor to date.

BYD has named Octopus EV as their preferred salary sacrifice provider, with their full package offering saving drivers 30% or more off the upfront cost of the car – the cheapest way to lease BYD’s EVs.

https://www.automotiveworld.com/news-releases/octopus-ev-and-byd-agree-landmark-deal-as-manufacturer-launches-in-the-uk/

Martyn1981

Couple of stories, big and teeny, both of which I think show that the transition is unstoppable and hopefully accelerating.

First, just a short note that Sebastian Vittel (amateur racer, not 'Vettel' the F1 driver), got invited to test the Tesla Plaid with the optional ceramic brake upgrade (as the car is advertised as ~200mph with optional upgrades). He reported it hitting 350kph speedo, and 320-330kph on gps, and could go faster.

Is this relevant to us personally, of course not. But when it comes to ticking ever more ICE boxes, then showing that BEV's can do what vastly more expensive ICE supercars / hypercars can do helps to show that they are not a downgrade, so to speak. Of course you can pay ICE prices for BEV supercars, like the Rimac Nevera.


Now, from the silly to the serious. In China VW said way back (31st Jan 2023) that they would not enter a price war in China, but now they have.

As the article points out, the big BEV players (Tesla and BYD), plus the biggest ICE manufacturers (Toyota and VW), have now cut prices. I apreciate that this reflects economic issues, and a fall in car sales in China, but hopefully it also is partly to do with lithium prices having falling some way off their highs. I assume all eyes will be on Tesla's Q1 results (late April) to see how much their price cuts, will have reduced margins and how much from cost reductions (if any?)

If costs are falling, or at least off peaks, then hopefully this will hold, and filter through, meaning lower BEV's costs as we head towards mid decade. Crucially, the article points out that VW has reduced list prices, these aren't just discounts.

VW slashed ID. prices in China, ID.4 down by 19% to $25,000

Price war heats up in China

Only last week, the Ford Mustang Mach-E dropped by 5,700 USD, Toyota BZ4X base price dropped by $4,300 (starting now at $25,000). In February, BYD discounted some of its models up to $2,800. It was reported some dealers of BMW i3 offered discounts up to $14,000. So far, at least 30 auto brands have participated in this price war, with a maximum discount of more than 100,000 RMB (15,000 USD).

Martyn1981

VW EV investments are incredible. Good on em. Also aiming for 20% BEV sales by 2025, which I think is reasonable, assuming growth in the second half of the decade isn't linear, but more exponential, perhaps.

[Edit - Plus of course the ID.2 reveal tomorrow. M.]

Volkswagen doubles down on its EV strategy with a nearly $200B investment

VW charges up EV strategy with nearly $200B investment

According to Volkswagen, the automating group plans to invest €180 billion (around $193 billion) over the next five years to advance its market position.

VW plans for 68% of the new investment to go toward digitalization and electrification as it looks to solidify its position in the future of the auto industry, compared to previous plans of allocating just 56% of the investment.
One of the biggest reasons for the increase is due to up to €15 billion (about $16 billion) being used for the construction of PowerCo battery cell plants and the associated costs of raw materials.

Volkswagen announced plans Monday for its first PowerCo cell plant outside of Europe located in St. Thomas, Ontario, which the automaker calls a key piece to its North America EV strategy. By 2030, VW expects PowerCO to generate a profit of more than €20 billion ($21.4 billion).

The news comes shortly after VW revealed plans to build over 200,000 rugged Scount brand electric SUVs and pickups in South Carolina. However, production is not set to begin until 2026.

Volkswagen is now planning for every fifth vehicle sold globally to be fully electric as early as 2025.

Martyn1981

ID2 press release. Looks very promising, certainly not small, only about 8in shorter than an ID3, and a couple of inches less in height. Cracking underfloor storage in the boot, and a range est of ~280 miles, but I'm not sure if that's standard, or max version (higher price). If it comes out at €25k, I doubt they could build them fast enough.

Edit - Target release date 2025.

World premiere of the ID. 2all01 concept:
the electric car from Volkswagen costing less than 25,000 euros

NigeWick

Martyn1981 said:

ID2 press release. Looks very promising, certainly not small, only about 8in shorter than an ID3, and a couple of inches less in height. Cracking underfloor storage in the boot, and a range est of ~280 miles, but I'm not sure if that's standard, or max version (higher price). If it comes out at €25k, I doubt they could build them fast enough.

Edit - Target release date 2025.

"I'm not sure if that's standard, or max version (higher price)." Indubitably the higher price and I'm not sure VW will still be making vehicles then with their financial (debt) woes.

Martyn1981

Try before you buy idea for mid sized BEV trucks in the UK. I seem to recall a few years back a similar scheme (possibly council based) where van drivers could experiment with a BEV for 3-6 months.

Also interesting to see the range differences between max weight and 25% payload. The box truck version, for example, has an estimated range of ~245km at 25% payload, and ~200km at 100%. 

Vertellus’ EV Discovery Program Fleet Operators Can Try Out 16-18 Tonne Electric Trucks For 3 Months

UK based Vertellus is working to help the transport industry go green through energy transition and decarbonization strategies. Vertellus partners with commercial vehicle operators to find solutions that are more ecological for both the planet and their business. Vertellus says it has over 60 approved partner locations in the UK.

Transitioning from a diesel fleet to an electric fleet can be challenging for commercial vehicle operators with lots of things to consider. Programs such as Vertellus’ EV Discovery program aims to make this transition a whole lot easier for operators of commercial vehicles. Vertellus has introduced the EV Discovery Programme as part of its commitment to support businesses in accelerating a seamless transition to an electric vehicle fleet.