Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Thrugelmir

Martyn1981 said:

Martyn1981 said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

Once the current supply crisis is over then those sort of discounts will reappear on less popular ICE models.

... and as we approach a more mature EV market, we'll see routine discounts appear there too, but this may take some while.

There are a lot of things that we just can't factor in, because we just don't know. What will happen to s/h and residual prices of ICE and EVs as we approach 2030? We may see ICE prices firm up, as people dash to grab an ICE before the deadline, but we may have already started to see ICE prices fall as garages close and petrol prices start to climb.

I've just got an Enyaq on a 4 year PCP, so that will go back as s/h in 2026, so these dates are approaching fast.

And ironically, we may also have to consider rising ICEV costs as manufacturers lose profitability on ICEV lines as sales fall. Profits aren't linear, and tend to be made on the top 10% or 20% of sales, with the other sales covering costs.

I don't know if this is possible, but legacy auto may try to drop some models, hoping to maintain sales number on the remaining lines. Better to lose one out of 10 lines, than lose 10% of sales across all lines?

But the disaster rapidly approaching for legacy, is that they can't ramp up BEV sales as fast as ICEV sales fall, thus maintaining revenue and profits to fund BEV investment. Going to be a tough decade for legacy auto as we head for a tipping point where it's simply a bad investment to buy an ICEV, which could result in ever faster falling demand for ICEV's and lack of profits and cashflow just when they need it most.

Gosh, only took VWG a week to follow my advice:

VW to scrap models and focus on premium market -CFO tells FT

Antlitz said VW would reduce its range of petrol and diesel cars, consisting of at least 100 models spread across several brands, by 60% in Europe over the next eight years.

Dear VWG, whilst I have your ear, may I suggest you front load that 8yr plan before things get (more) painful.

VW are quoting 12 month order lead time. 15-18 months if spec specific. Manufacturers aren't making the vehicles to sell (for a whole range of reasons).  With few new cars. There'll be no vehicles filtering into the second hand in a couple of years time. 

Nor is the price of commodities helping the EV manufacturers. Price rises are going to make them even more expensive. 

CKhalvashi

Thrugelmir said:

Martyn1981 said:

Martyn1981 said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

Once the current supply crisis is over then those sort of discounts will reappear on less popular ICE models.

... and as we approach a more mature EV market, we'll see routine discounts appear there too, but this may take some while.

There are a lot of things that we just can't factor in, because we just don't know. What will happen to s/h and residual prices of ICE and EVs as we approach 2030? We may see ICE prices firm up, as people dash to grab an ICE before the deadline, but we may have already started to see ICE prices fall as garages close and petrol prices start to climb.

I've just got an Enyaq on a 4 year PCP, so that will go back as s/h in 2026, so these dates are approaching fast.

And ironically, we may also have to consider rising ICEV costs as manufacturers lose profitability on ICEV lines as sales fall. Profits aren't linear, and tend to be made on the top 10% or 20% of sales, with the other sales covering costs.

I don't know if this is possible, but legacy auto may try to drop some models, hoping to maintain sales number on the remaining lines. Better to lose one out of 10 lines, than lose 10% of sales across all lines?

But the disaster rapidly approaching for legacy, is that they can't ramp up BEV sales as fast as ICEV sales fall, thus maintaining revenue and profits to fund BEV investment. Going to be a tough decade for legacy auto as we head for a tipping point where it's simply a bad investment to buy an ICEV, which could result in ever faster falling demand for ICEV's and lack of profits and cashflow just when they need it most.

Gosh, only took VWG a week to follow my advice:

VW to scrap models and focus on premium market -CFO tells FT

Antlitz said VW would reduce its range of petrol and diesel cars, consisting of at least 100 models spread across several brands, by 60% in Europe over the next eight years.

Dear VWG, whilst I have your ear, may I suggest you front load that 8yr plan before things get (more) painful.

VW are quoting 12 month order lead time. 15-18 months if spec specific. Manufacturers aren't making the vehicles to sell (for a whole range of reasons).  With few new cars. There'll be no vehicles filtering into the second hand in a couple of years time. 

Nor is the price of commodities helping the EV manufacturers. Price rises are going to make them even more expensive. 

A colleague has seen longer than that for a highly spec-specific ID4.

Agree with you completely, this is likely to be a 3-4 year bottleneck due to the inevitable lack of leases ending.

JKenH

Electric vehicles: Global microchip shortage delaying rollout of new EV chargers and repairs of faulty units

https://inews.co.uk/news/electric-cars-global-microchip-shortage-1540942

JKenH

Tesla to soon open Supercharger network to all EV owners in the UK, says govt official

Speaking to Founder and CEO of Electrifying.com Ginny Buckley earlier this week, Transport Minister Trudy Harrison confirmed the move, stating: “Tesla recognise that they are part of the solution here” and that the move could come “within weeks and months rather than years”.

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Tesla to soon open Supercharger network to all EV owners in the UK, says govt official

Speaking to Founder and CEO of Electrifying.com Ginny Buckley earlier this week, Transport Minister Trudy Harrison confirmed the move, stating: “Tesla recognise that they are part of the solution here” and that the move could come “within weeks and months rather than years”.

I welcome this, but it means TESLA giving away their USP.  I want my next car to be an EV and the supercharger network is the reason I would buy a TESLA over anything else.  With that taken away, there are better choices.  Perhaps Elon has some other trick up his sleeve.

Martyn1981

New York to ban / remove all 50,000 diesel school buses by 2035, and require all new purchases to be zero emission by 2027. Strong move, and whilst it won't necessarily be linear, especially before 2027, that does equate to removing ~4,000 diesel buses per year for 13yrs.

New York Enacts First-In-Nation Plan To Electrify All State School Buses

This week an agreement was reached on New York’s annual State Budget. When passed, the budget will enact a nation-leading commitment for New York to achieve the first fully zero emission statewide school bus fleet in the country.

Building on Governor Kathy Hochul’s State of the State and Executive Budget proposals, this historic legislation aims for all new school bus purchases to be zero emission by 2027, while requiring that all buses in operation are electric by 2035. The budget includes critical new funding to help districts implement this transition by dedicating at least $500 million toward school bus electrification from the environmental bond act that will appear on the ballot this fall. The new law will also require the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to develop an electrification roadmap for New York’s school districts and provide technical support.

Most of New York’s 50,000 school buses currently run on diesel fuel, exposing children across the state to harmful pollutants with proven links to respiratory conditions and cognitive impacts.

This funding follows a recent federal investment in electric school buses in the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, including $5 billion in funding for school districts to make the switch to electric and alternative fuel school buses.

zeupater

Grumpy_chap said:

.....  Perhaps Elon has some other trick up his sleeve.

Hi

Obviously the use of differential pricing in the face of a captive audience would serve as a useful 'free' marketing tool for someone averse to pouring vast proportions of business profit down a lucrative (to others in marketing!) drain .... that and investing the additional income directly into accelerating the growth of infrastructure ??!

If the intent is to hide this up a sleeve, perhaps I've just spoiled the illusion .... sorry! 

HTH - Z

michaels

zeupater said:

Grumpy_chap said:

.....  Perhaps Elon has some other trick up his sleeve.

Hi

Obviously the use of differential pricing in the face of a captive audience would serve as a useful 'free' marketing tool for someone averse to pouring vast proportions of business profit down a lucrative (to others in marketing!) drain .... that and investing the additional income directly into accelerating the growth of infrastructure ??!

If the intent is to hide this up a sleeve, perhaps I've just spoiled the illusion .... sorry! 

HTH - Z

Have to say if it were my network I would have a priority queue / book a space ahead of time facility for Tesla owners whilst all others had to go in the 'normal' queue and see Teslas arrive after them but get served first....

2nd_time_buyer

Amazon are now as much a logistics company as a shop. By allowing other retailers to use their front-end and back-end they stifle competition.  Tesla probably sees this as a way to increase share in the power delivery market. If you are a business looking to site chargers on your premises in order to generate footfall, it might be more attractive to have not just Tesla drivers stopping.

silverwhistle

Tesla has already opened up in France (and I think The Netherlands?) and indeed I've just been doing some France route planning using ABRP that used one for me, but I did see somewhere that it might not be available to UK registered vehicles? More investigation needed unless anyone here can enlighten. Nor do I know the payment mechanism - contactless? I've got bloomin' RFID cards and accounts coming out of my ears...

The new Beaune site at E. Leclerc is open to all and has 20 chargers: perhaps they've done some number crunching on the impact on Tesla owners. Lots of questions!

I'm sure I've seen reference to bookings somewhere, in some app in my perambulations on the subject but can't recall where. It's one of those ideas which is probably easier in the conception than in the delivery and enforcement, but certainly more feasible in a closed manufacturer's environment.