Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Grumpy_chap

Solarchaser said:

Your brother at 130 miles, id just drive personally,  but I'd assume by the point of doing the journey you would already know whether the car will do 130 miles to a charge or not.

You wouldn't head off on a 130 mile round trip in a petrol car if you didn't know if it would make it.so same deal really 

I think there is a difference.
I know that an ICE car with a full tank of fuel will do X miles and is only impacted marginally by weather conditions.  In any event, the range is well-over 130 miles.

I think you have a TM3, which is a larger battery / longer range (even as standard) version of EV.  There are many other EV's that quote "book" ranges around 200 miles:

• Lexus UXe = 196 miles
• Corsa EV = 209 miles
• MG5 = 214 miles
• VW ID3 Style = 215 miles

We probably all agree that real range will not meet the "book" range, in exactly the same way that ICE mpg does not match "book" mpg.  From a "book" range of around 200 miles, I understand a real world range of around 150 miles is probably realistic.

With an EV, therefore, unlike ICE, the target for the round trip 130 miles is near to the achievable range of the vehicle.  If we consider cold and wet weather, then it is conceivable that the range would reduce below the round trip.  OR I have to turn off heating, lights, wipers, radio and drive at 56 mph to make it - not a level of detriment that fills me with glee.

At best, it would be the EV equivalent of arriving back home with the "low fuel" lamp illuminated, and I wouldn't hastily do that in an ICE so why would I in an EV?

Maybe there are others that know the level of range (real world) versus "book" and / or the impact of wet and cold on range.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Solarchaser said:

I do keep seeing the range anxiety come up again and again from EV sceptics. And I understand it too, it can be inconvenient at times having to pull over and charge when you just want to crack on.
I've had to do it a couple of times in the model 3 when I've done long journeys back to back over a couple of days when plans have suddenly changed.
Not too dissimilar you could argue, to having to pay through the nose for petrol/diesel at motorway services when plans suddenly change, the only difference being the wait being longer to charge the car.

For me that forced half hour or hour mid journey can be frustrating, however on the other hand it can be a stress relief, time to catch up on paperwork,  or a forced stretch of the leg's, making me eat lunch etc.

Pro-EV advocates always reference the matter of range anxiety by reference to a "long" journey.
If an individual is driving a "long" journey, say London to Manchester, then most will be stopping for refreshment in any case.  If those that would not have stopped are now forced to do so, then it is probably a significant advantage in terms of safety that they've taken a break.

As I put a little way up the thread, range is more of an issue for a return journey that would ordinarily be two "short" legs, each driven non-stop.  Range constraints would then be forcing an extra stop and adding time to the journey that is quite a long proportion of the overall travel time.
My example is if I visit my brother, 65 miles each way.  EV with a "book" range of 200 miles, so real-world range around 150 miles as I will rarely have optimal climate conditions, I still want to drive at motorway speeds, and I still want the comfort of the radio on, heating / cooling etc.
That round trip of 130 miles is now coming perilously close to the real world range limit of 150 miles, so is quite realistically going to force a cafe-charging stop that would not otherwise have been the case. 
This has therefore added time that I would rather not spend.
An hour-or-so each way trip to see family is something that is far more common and far more frequent for most than the "long" journey where you would be taking rest breaks anyway that afford the opportunity to charge without adding extra time.

Other similar types of journeys would be the day out to the beach or a major shopping centre etc.

I an happy if reasons can be given why my explanation of when range would have a real impact is wrong.  Indeed, I'd welcome it as it would truly work to establish range as a non-issue.

TBH I think you've fallen into the same range anxiety trap in that example. And this isn't a criticism, it's 100% natural, I was very much the same, then you get a suitable BEV and simply get on with it.

In that example you would hopefully be fine for both legs most of the time, or try for a top up at your brother's, but worst case you stop for a top up charge, it's not the end of the world. Let's say everything has gone against you, the temp is lower, you have headwinds on both legs, and the road is wet, so you'll be pushing your luck on the return leg, that still doesn't mean a long charge. You don't need to fill the car, plus it'll charge faster, the lower it is. Let's say worst case you need 10kWh extra to get home, and have to use a 50kW charger, then that's just 12 mins. If the car has almost enough range, then you could charge less, and perhaps using a faster charger, so 5kWh at a 100kW, that's only 3mins, and could be akin to a fuel stop.

Folk always seem to focus on an edge case issue/problem, but if you think about it, why would you choose not to get a BEV and all the year round pluses, just because once a year you might have to stop and charge for a few minutes on a journey you normally wouldn't. Plus, reading what you've posted, you've decided that the chance of it happening is small, but on that occasion you aren't willing to make any sacrifices, when choosing a seat heater and/or steering wheel heater instead of heating the car, or slowing down from 70mph to 60, might be all it takes to make up for the poor conditions on that rare occasion.

What is really needed, and would cover your beach and shopping centre examples, is for there to be an appropriate number of destination chargers, perhaps 7kW to 20kW(?) so the BEV can fill up, whilst you are enjoying yourself. Clearly the UK charging infrastructure isn't good enough yet, and I've previously mentioned my fears that central and local government won't act fast enough, so even as it expands, it will remain sub par, but that can be solved, and I hope it is.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Solarchaser said:

Your brother at 130 miles, id just drive personally,  but I'd assume by the point of doing the journey you would already know whether the car will do 130 miles to a charge or not.

You wouldn't head off on a 130 mile round trip in a petrol car if you didn't know if it would make it.so same deal really 

I think there is a difference.
I know that an ICE car with a full tank of fuel will do X miles and is only impacted marginally by weather conditions.  In any event, the range is well-over 130 miles.

I think you have a TM3, which is a larger battery / longer range (even as standard) version of EV.  There are many other EV's that quote "book" ranges around 200 miles:

• Lexus UXe = 196 miles
• Corsa EV = 209 miles
• MG5 = 214 miles
• VW ID3 Style = 215 miles

We probably all agree that real range will not meet the "book" range, in exactly the same way that ICE mpg does not match "book" mpg.  From a "book" range of around 200 miles, I understand a real world range of around 150 miles is probably realistic.

With an EV, therefore, unlike ICE, the target for the round trip 130 miles is near to the achievable range of the vehicle.  If we consider cold and wet weather, then it is conceivable that the range would reduce below the round trip.  OR I have to turn off heating, lights, wipers, radio and drive at 56 mph to make it - not a level of detriment that fills me with glee.

At best, it would be the EV equivalent of arriving back home with the "low fuel" lamp illuminated, and I wouldn't hastily do that in an ICE so why would I in an EV?

Maybe there are others that know the level of range (real world) versus "book" and / or the impact of wet and cold on range.

Looking at the EV Database, you should be OK for the VW and the MG5.

At -10C with the heating on, you might get away with it in the Corsa depending on the ratio of city to highway miles, with a 165miles for city, 120 highway, and 140 combined.

The Lexus is tighter, but might just do it with 165miles for city, 115 highway, and 135 combined, but with a budget of £42k, I'd suggest you get a TM3 SR+ instead with 278 mile range with -10C stats of 205miles for city, 165 highway, and 180 combined.

Martyn1981

Reasonably short and quick revue of the European market so far this year, and giving estimates for how the rest of 2021 may play out, even a playful guesstimate of PEV's reaching 25%-30% for Q4. Also has a breakdown of all the major fuel classes.

It's fun to think how deceptively slow a doubling looks at the start, 1%, 2%, 4% ..., but then how quickly it sneaks up on us as it grows into ...4%, 8%, 16%. 

Q3 Saw Europe’s EV Share Break New Ground Above 20% & Overtake Diesel For First Time

Europe’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles climb above 20% share for the first time in Q3 2021, up almost 2x year-on-year.  Plugin share also overtook diesel’s falling share (15.4%) for the first time – diesel will now quickly fade to nothing. The overall auto market was down 21.3% year-on-year, with Q3 volume at 2,681,735 units.

michaels

Solarchaser said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Solarchaser said:

I do keep seeing the range anxiety come up again and again from EV sceptics. And I understand it too, it can be inconvenient at times having to pull over and charge when you just want to crack on.
I've had to do it a couple of times in the model 3 when I've done long journeys back to back over a couple of days when plans have suddenly changed.
Not too dissimilar you could argue, to having to pay through the nose for petrol/diesel at motorway services when plans suddenly change, the only difference being the wait being longer to charge the car.

For me that forced half hour or hour mid journey can be frustrating, however on the other hand it can be a stress relief, time to catch up on paperwork,  or a forced stretch of the leg's, making me eat lunch etc.

Pro-EV advocates always reference the matter of range anxiety by reference to a "long" journey.
If an individual is driving a "long" journey, say London to Manchester, then most will be stopping for refreshment in any case.  If those that would not have stopped are now forced to do so, then it is probably a significant advantage in terms of safety that they've taken a break.

As I put a little way up the thread, range is more of an issue for a return journey that would ordinarily be two "short" legs, each driven non-stop.  Range constraints would then be forcing an extra stop and adding time to the journey that is quite a long proportion of the overall travel time.
My example is if I visit my brother, 65 miles each way.  EV with a "book" range of 200 miles, so real-world range around 150 miles as I will rarely have optimal climate conditions, I still want to drive at motorway speeds, and I still want the comfort of the radio on, heating / cooling etc.
That round trip of 130 miles is now coming perilously close to the real world range limit of 150 miles, so is quite realistically going to force a cafe-charging stop that would not otherwise have been the case. 
This has therefore added time that I would rather not spend.
An hour-or-so each way trip to see family is something that is far more common and far more frequent for most than the "long" journey where you would be taking rest breaks anyway that afford the opportunity to charge without adding extra time.

Other similar types of journeys would be the day out to the beach or a major shopping centre etc.

I an happy if reasons can be given why my explanation of when range would have a real impact is wrong.  Indeed, I'd welcome it as it would truly work to establish range as a non-issue.

I guess you call me a pro ev advocate,  and I was referencing back to back unexpected journeys, you will note I didn't state length.
See if you leave somewhere with a 1/4 tank /charge and then have to go somewhere else then you have to stop and fill/charge.

Your brother at 130 miles, id just drive personally,  but I'd assume by the point of doing the journey you would already know whether the car will do 130 miles to a charge or not.

You wouldn't head off on a 130 mile round trip in a petrol car if you didn't know if it would make it.so same deal really 

Much quicker in general to just slow down a bit and add 2 or 3 minutes to a journey than to have to go via and stop at a charger.

Having said with we have stopped for as little as 4kwh just to make sure we make it home without having to clench buttocks....

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Reasonably short and quick revue of the European market so far this year, and giving estimates for how the rest of 2021 may play out, even a playful guesstimate of PEV's reaching 25%-30% for Q4. Also has a breakdown of all the major fuel classes.

It's fun to think how deceptively slow a doubling looks at the start, 1%, 2%, 4% ..., but then how quickly it sneaks up on us as it grows into ...4%, 8%, 16%. 

Q3 Saw Europe’s EV Share Break New Ground Above 20% & Overtake Diesel For First Time

Europe’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles climb above 20% share for the first time in Q3 2021, up almost 2x year-on-year.  Plugin share also overtook diesel’s falling share (15.4%) for the first time – diesel will now quickly fade to nothing. The overall auto market was down 21.3% year-on-year, with Q3 volume at 2,681,735 units.

What is the driving force behind the overall volume down by 21%?
Low demand or supply constraints?

If the overall volume is down because of supply constraints (chip shortage?), then to what extent would that supply constraint influence the vehicle mix?  I can imagine that supply constraints would favour higher-value cars and, by default, that would favour EV.

michaels

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Reasonably short and quick revue of the European market so far this year, and giving estimates for how the rest of 2021 may play out, even a playful guesstimate of PEV's reaching 25%-30% for Q4. Also has a breakdown of all the major fuel classes.

It's fun to think how deceptively slow a doubling looks at the start, 1%, 2%, 4% ..., but then how quickly it sneaks up on us as it grows into ...4%, 8%, 16%. 

Q3 Saw Europe’s EV Share Break New Ground Above 20% & Overtake Diesel For First Time

Europe’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles climb above 20% share for the first time in Q3 2021, up almost 2x year-on-year.  Plugin share also overtook diesel’s falling share (15.4%) for the first time – diesel will now quickly fade to nothing. The overall auto market was down 21.3% year-on-year, with Q3 volume at 2,681,735 units.

What is the driving force behind the overall volume down by 21%?
Low demand or supply constraints?

If the overall volume is down because of supply constraints (chip shortage?), then to what extent would that supply constraint influence the vehicle mix?  I can imagine that supply constraints would favour higher-value cars and, by default, that would favour EV.

I am sure this is true, especially with the EU emissions regime favouring sales of EVs.

Grumpy_chap

michaels said:

I am sure this is true, especially with the EU emissions regime favouring sales of EVs.

At the extreme, the "value" metric would not align so well to driving EV sales over ICE sales:

If you were a multi-brand car manufacturer with one "chip" and two willing customers.  Customer one can pay £15k for a supermini.  Customer two can pay £250k for a supercar.  Who gets the car?

In the more modest market, the "value" metric will drive EV sales where the manufacturer has the choice:

Consider a more narrowly focused brand, still only one "chip" and still only two customers, after an ICE supermini for £20k or the EV version of the same supermini for £30k.  Who gets the car?

The biggest metric for manufacturing companies is nearly always turnover.  Profit is then deemed to fall into place if you run the business correctly.

silverwhistle

I've got a "cheap" EV although for Covid and personal reasons have done very little mileage, but I'm amongst those majority of drivers who would never go back to an ICE unless for very specific user requirements. In no way do we consider them donkeys and I've ridden ex-polo ponies, Welsh cobs and retired trotters and pacers...

In terms of range I have yet to do long trips where I need to use en-route chargers but I have done airport runs at my range limit. Procedure was to get near the airport, as I would do in an ICE, then wait around nearby and do a small (free in my case) top up to avoid any anxiety on the motorway dash home. The first time I did it, in winter, the flight (and my passengers phone call to me) was early so the top up was a few miles less than expected so I just throttled back a bit on the return journey and arrived home with a score of miles left.

Although there are a number of fans for EVs, particularly for one manufacturer,I do find some of the criticism of EVs I hear rather misinformed. Certainly there are some behavioral changes you may need to adopt, but anybody who is at all adaptable will cope, and rather appreciate not having to muck out the stables and shoe the horse or donkey..

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Reasonably short and quick revue of the European market so far this year, and giving estimates for how the rest of 2021 may play out, even a playful guesstimate of PEV's reaching 25%-30% for Q4. Also has a breakdown of all the major fuel classes.

It's fun to think how deceptively slow a doubling looks at the start, 1%, 2%, 4% ..., but then how quickly it sneaks up on us as it grows into ...4%, 8%, 16%. 

Q3 Saw Europe’s EV Share Break New Ground Above 20% & Overtake Diesel For First Time

Europe’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles climb above 20% share for the first time in Q3 2021, up almost 2x year-on-year.  Plugin share also overtook diesel’s falling share (15.4%) for the first time – diesel will now quickly fade to nothing. The overall auto market was down 21.3% year-on-year, with Q3 volume at 2,681,735 units.

What is the driving force behind the overall volume down by 21%?
Low demand or supply constraints?

If the overall volume is down because of supply constraints (chip shortage?), then to what extent would that supply constraint influence the vehicle mix?  I can imagine that supply constraints would favour higher-value cars and, by default, that would favour EV.

Yeah it's a fascinating question and situation.

I've been watching a tonne of vids, vlogs, and questionable business news pieces (who don't seem particularly informed), and they all seem to suggest that BEV's need 2-10x as many chips, yet supply of BEV's is still rising quickly. There's also the question of margin, since a small reduction in ICEV's sales might remove most/all profit from any particular model, and at the same time, margins on BEV's may be low or even negative at the moment.

Ark invest are questioning whether demand for ICEV's is actually falling, possibly the Osborne Effect kicking in now, but being blamed on chips. Perhaps alongside the Osborne Effect, but not yet sitting within it, is legislation making some potential ICEV buyers (but not yet ready to jump into a BEV) too wary today, to buy an ICEV. Not sure if that makes sense - they wouldn't yet be classed as waiting for a BEV instead, but are holding back whilst watching how things develop.

Personally, I can't decide, and I don't know if there is enough evidence yet. Perhaps one or more of the legacy manufacturers will make some statement confirming or denying any strong downward pressure on ICEV's soon. Obviously there is already small and growing downward pressure and ICEV's sales have long since peaked, but is the additional drop in sales purely down to a chip shortage ....... I really don't know.