Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Verdigris

It's a hype company, like Apple, configured to extract as much money as possible from devotees for products that aren't really much better than the Microsoft/Android equivalent.

Martyn1981

shinytop said:

Martyn1981 said:

shinytop said:

ABrass said:

shinytop said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010ntb

Interesting article on batteries.  They also discuss EVs and the estimates for how much emissions we (the UK) will be saving by 2050 are a bit underwhelming at about 1% of the total.  The assumption is that 25% of miles will be EV by then.  Obviously that will go up afterwards.

 I know it has to happen but it seems like a lot of effort and cost for not a lot of gain. 

That doesn't sound right.

If we are banning new Petrol cars by 2035 (diesel will be dead well before that anyway) then we're supposed to believe that 75% of miles will be done in cars at least 15 years old?

But don't worry, the EV pain will be over by 2025. Then they will be cheaper to buy than petrol cars as well as cheaper to own. Everyone is happy.

The numbers included commercial vehicles, not just cars.

I'm not worrying, but EVs won't be cheaper to run in the long term than ICE cars.  There might be a short time when it is made such to encourage the switch. They are cheaper to run now because their 'fuel' is hugely subsidised compared to petrol and diesel.  That won't last.  And the biggest downward pressure on EV purchase prices is the fact that ICE cars are much cheaper.  Once ICE cars are gone then so is that competition.   

I can't follow any of that. Shirley the biggest downward pressure on EV's is the falling cost of batteries, and the economies of scale from ramping up production.

I can't see all the car companies in the World suddenly raising their prices when ICEV's go, you'd only need one to be cheaper and it would take the market. I don't think ICEV's are the competition for each manufacturer, I think the other manufacturers are the competition.

The Model T Ford (and its competitors) effectively displaced horses, and it was launched at ~$900, and fell to $360 over the following ~20yrs. Including inflation, its price fell approx 75%.

No of course they won't and I didn't say that but ICE cars are a benchmark for price and range that BEVs need to aim for currently.  Or rather, ICE price + whatever grant is available.   People who want to buy EVs compare them with ICE cars and if the difference is too much they won't buy them.    

If you want to continue the Model T analogy, some people might say that what we are doing now is replacing horses with donkeys    
 

Sorry I still don't understand that, you said:

And the biggest downward pressure on EV purchase prices is the fact that ICE cars are much cheaper.  Once ICE cars are gone then so is that competition.   

Which at the very least suggests that BEV prices won't keep reducing when ICEV sales fall (but they are already falling). As I mentioned, the biggest drivers of BEV cost reductions are falling battery prices and the ramping up towards mass production on a scale similar to ICEV production. I don't understand why you think BEV prices will be tied to ICEV prices, when BEV's will have to compete with BEV's. The Chinese in particular seem able to produce quality BEV's at reasonable prices.

That's why I mentioned the Ford Model T, which was the 'new' and disruptive vehicle of its time due to mass production, and costs kept falling. As Eric points out, colour tellies kept getting cheaper, I don't believe their price reductions stalled when B&W sales dropped. History will provide you with no end of examples where a better product comes along and disrupts the established technology, then costs fall as production ramps. [Typically a technology related percentage cost reduction with each doubling of production, known as Wright's Law. In the case of Wright Aeronautical the cost reduction was ~15%, so the 2,000th aircraft cost 15% less to build than the 1,000th, and then the 4,000th would cost 15% less than the 2,000th. Wright's law can be applied both to BEV's and batteries.]

Regarding your 'donkey' comment, I'm at a bit of a loss concerning that one. Are you suggesting that BEV's are an inferior product, or that 'some people' think they are an inferior product? I hadn't heard that. Could it be that those people haven't tried a BEV yet, and are simply assuming it's inferior, in which case they are in for a pleasant shock?


TBH, whilst I still can't really follow your logic, I would say it's actually pretty positive - if the main fears are that the product is inferior, or that costs won't fall (as ICEV sales drop), or perhaps are just a mix of unknowns due to fear of change - then things will be fine, we just need folk to try out a BEV, and then enjoy ownership once costs and availability (new or SH) improve.

Martyn1981

Anyways, since fears and doubts will pass over time, and in my experience, most people seem nervously excited about BEV's, let's get back to the fun ...... BEV news.

Obviously when it comes to buses, China is simply leagues ahead, but other countries transitioning their fleets is still fascinating news (to me), and this example caught my eye to the package of chargers, batts and some PV too:-

Largest Depot For Electric Buses In Australia

Transit Systems (owned by Sealink Travel Group) is currently operating 15 electric buses in Sydney’s Inner West urban streets.  With 40 more ordered, the time has come to create the largest electrified depot in Australia.

Australasian Bus and Coach writes, “The Leichhardt depot retrofit will include: the use of 40 electric buses with a combination of 368kWh and 422kWh onboard batteries; five 120kW electric bus chargers capable of charging two buses at a time; 31x 80kW electric bus chargers; 2.5MW/4.9MWh of stationary batteries; and 387kW of rooftop solar PV.”

The combination of onsite batteries and solar means that charging the busses will not a have a detrimental effect on the grid. Scaling up from the initial trial of 4 buses to 40 within the next few months has taken significant amounts of planning across several government and private sector entities.

CKhalvashi

For anyone interested in trying an EV but not sure, Apex have the Ioniq Electric in stock now.

https://www.apexrental.co.uk/rental_vehicle/1493.aspx

Prices are plus VAT and on a self-insured basis, but may be worth it for a few months for those considering but not feeling ready to leap in.

JKenH

Verdigris said:

It's a hype company, like Apple, configured to extract as much money as possible from devotees for products that aren't really much better than the Microsoft/Android equivalent.

Elon Musk has been criticised for not being profit motivated. “Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.”

Apple may be profit motivated but do face competition the same as Tesla yet still have increased the price of the cheapest iPhone from $499 when first launched to $799 currently.

The link which started this current discussion though was related to emissions which are only expected to fall by 1% by 2050 due to the switch to electric cars. So is the worldwide expenditure on forcing through this transition with all the other environmental issues arising from lithium batteries worthwhile? As I have frequently said, in the long term EVs will save on emissions but in the short term we are putting even more CO2 into the atmosphere with EV manufacturing being front loaded in terms of emissions. 

I have owned my current EV for 20 months and covered 9800 miles. How many years before it breaks even on CO2 compared to the alternative which was retaining my 99g/CO2/km post Dieselgate Golf?

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Apple may be profit motivated but do face competition the same as Tesla yet still have increased the price of the cheapest iPhone from $499 when first launched to $799 currently.

Those absolute numbers are meaningless unless inflation is taken into account.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Apple may be profit motivated but do face competition the same as Tesla yet still have increased the price of the cheapest iPhone from $499 when first launched to $799 currently.

Those absolute numbers are meaningless unless inflation is taken into account.

Just demonstrating things don’t necessarily get cheaper, in absolute or real price terms. 

Edit: $499 in 2007 is worth $660.17 today

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2007?amount=499

Edit 2: Lauch price of the Model S in 2012 was $49,900 for the base model or $69,900 for the 300 mile version. Current price is $91,190 for the cheapest version which I think has a 420 mile range. 

Grumpy_chap

But £800 now is much cheaper than £500 then.

CKhalvashi

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

Martyn1981 said:

The Model T Ford (and its competitors) effectively displaced horses, and it was launched at ~$900, and fell to $360 over the following ~20yrs. Including inflation, its price fell approx 75%.

For those of us who don't remember events from 1908,  a more useful example might be colour TVs.  When first available in the 1960s, buying one would cost the average person several month's pay;  nowadays it's just a couple of days earnings.  

So why does Tesla keep putting its prices up?

They charge what people are willing to pay.

I thought the TMY was expensive compared to an ID4, and I can guess what the tourism part of our business will likely be aiming for, especially as VW are more open to haggling than Tesla. Other cars are available and we haven't started looking yet as I can't get financing in place at competitive rates at this time.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

But £800 now is much cheaper than £500 then.

Really?

In case you missed my previous post.

$499 in 2007 is worth $660.17 today

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2007?amount=499