Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

shinytop

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010ntb

Interesting article on batteries.  They also discuss EVs and the estimates for how much emissions we (the UK) will be saving by 2050 are a bit underwhelming at about 1% of the total.  The assumption is that 25% of miles will be EV by then.  Obviously that will go up afterwards.

 I know it has to happen but it seems like a lot of effort and cost for not a lot of gain. 

ABrass

shinytop said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010ntb

Interesting article on batteries.  They also discuss EVs and the estimates for how much emissions we (the UK) will be saving by 2050 are a bit underwhelming at about 1% of the total.  The assumption is that 25% of miles will be EV by then.  Obviously that will go up afterwards.

 I know it has to happen but it seems like a lot of effort and cost for not a lot of gain. 

That doesn't sound right.

If we are banning new Petrol cars by 2035 (diesel will be dead well before that anyway) then we're supposed to believe that 75% of miles will be done in cars at least 15 years old?

But don't worry, the EV pain will be over by 2025. Then they will be cheaper to buy than petrol cars as well as cheaper to own. Everyone is happy.

shinytop

ABrass said:

shinytop said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010ntb

Interesting article on batteries.  They also discuss EVs and the estimates for how much emissions we (the UK) will be saving by 2050 are a bit underwhelming at about 1% of the total.  The assumption is that 25% of miles will be EV by then.  Obviously that will go up afterwards.

 I know it has to happen but it seems like a lot of effort and cost for not a lot of gain. 

That doesn't sound right.

If we are banning new Petrol cars by 2035 (diesel will be dead well before that anyway) then we're supposed to believe that 75% of miles will be done in cars at least 15 years old?

But don't worry, the EV pain will be over by 2025. Then they will be cheaper to buy than petrol cars as well as cheaper to own. Everyone is happy.

The numbers included commercial vehicles, not just cars.

I'm not worrying, but EVs won't be cheaper to run in the long term than ICE cars.  There might be a short time when it is made such to encourage the switch. They are cheaper to run now because their 'fuel' is hugely subsidised compared to petrol and diesel.  That won't last.  And the biggest downward pressure on EV purchase prices is the fact that ICE cars are much cheaper.  Once ICE cars are gone then so is that competition.   

ABrass

shinytop said:

ABrass said:

shinytop said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010ntb

Interesting article on batteries.  They also discuss EVs and the estimates for how much emissions we (the UK) will be saving by 2050 are a bit underwhelming at about 1% of the total.  The assumption is that 25% of miles will be EV by then.  Obviously that will go up afterwards.

 I know it has to happen but it seems like a lot of effort and cost for not a lot of gain. 

That doesn't sound right.

If we are banning new Petrol cars by 2035 (diesel will be dead well before that anyway) then we're supposed to believe that 75% of miles will be done in cars at least 15 years old?

But don't worry, the EV pain will be over by 2025. Then they will be cheaper to buy than petrol cars as well as cheaper to own. Everyone is happy.

The numbers included commercial vehicles, not just cars.

I'm not worrying, but EVs won't be cheaper to run in the long term than ICE cars.  There might be a short time when it is made such to encourage the switch. They are cheaper to run now because their 'fuel' is hugely subsidised compared to petrol and diesel.  That won't last.  And the biggest downward pressure on EV purchase prices is the fact that ICE cars are much cheaper.  Once ICE cars are gone then so is that competition.   

So electricity prices are going to quadruple? Cool, I guess I'll order those solar panels sooner rather than later.

orrery

shinytop said:

I'm not worrying, but EVs won't be cheaper to run in the long term than ICE cars.  There might be a short time when it is made such to encourage the switch. They are cheaper to run now because their 'fuel' is hugely subsidised compared to petrol and diesel.

Can't say I follow that at all.

EV manufacturing costs are on a downward path - the standard experience 'S' curve, that even the industry pundits seem to underestimate.

So, there will come a day, sooner than you think, when EVs become cheaper than ICE to buy. EVs are cheaper to maintain, even battery module replacement will become commonplace and cheap (you can get Leaf batteries refreshed with a couple of new modules for about £400 now). Electricity costs from renewables are falling, and will continue to fall, so fuel will become cheaper.

The government will, of course, introduce road pricing, that is inevitable - the basic technology has been in use for years in Europe, and could be made much cleverer now, but that will impact EV and ICE equally.

Note that diesel and petrol are also subsidised - the green lobby are constantly trying to stop the government funding their mates in the oil companies with tax credits - there was a point where north sea oil became a net drain on the economy.

Add to that the need for carbon tax on petrol and I'd say that looks like a knock-out in favour of EVs.

EricMears

shinytop said:

 (EVs)  are cheaper to run now because their 'fuel' is hugely subsidised compared to petrol and diesel.  That won't last.  

Is household electricity "subsidised" ?  If not,  the only 'subsidy' is not paying the fuel duty & vat (amounting to around 100% of the pre-tax price) that petrol & diesel attract.

Even if 'EV fuel' was similarly taxed at 100% ,  EVs would still be massively cheaper than ICEVs (providing you minimise use of commercial rapid chargers).

Martyn1981

shinytop said:

ABrass said:

shinytop said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010ntb

Interesting article on batteries.  They also discuss EVs and the estimates for how much emissions we (the UK) will be saving by 2050 are a bit underwhelming at about 1% of the total.  The assumption is that 25% of miles will be EV by then.  Obviously that will go up afterwards.

 I know it has to happen but it seems like a lot of effort and cost for not a lot of gain. 

That doesn't sound right.

If we are banning new Petrol cars by 2035 (diesel will be dead well before that anyway) then we're supposed to believe that 75% of miles will be done in cars at least 15 years old?

But don't worry, the EV pain will be over by 2025. Then they will be cheaper to buy than petrol cars as well as cheaper to own. Everyone is happy.

The numbers included commercial vehicles, not just cars.

I'm not worrying, but EVs won't be cheaper to run in the long term than ICE cars.  There might be a short time when it is made such to encourage the switch. They are cheaper to run now because their 'fuel' is hugely subsidised compared to petrol and diesel.  That won't last.  And the biggest downward pressure on EV purchase prices is the fact that ICE cars are much cheaper.  Once ICE cars are gone then so is that competition.   

I can't follow any of that. Shirley the biggest downward pressure on EV's is the falling cost of batteries, and the economies of scale from ramping up production.

I can't see all the car companies in the World suddenly raising their prices when ICEV's go, you'd only need one to be cheaper and it would take the market. I don't think ICEV's are the competition for each manufacturer, I think the other manufacturers are the competition.

The Model T Ford (and its competitors) effectively displaced horses, and it was launched at ~$900, and fell to $360 over the following ~20yrs. Including inflation, its price fell approx 75%.

Martyn1981

BEV's continuing to do well in China, nearly 11% market share for the year so far.

Record Month For Plugin Vehicle Sales In China!

Share-wise, with September having a record month and the overall auto market dropping 17% year over year (YoY), market share jumped through the roof, hitting a record 20% (17% full electrics/BEVs). This pulled the 2021 share to 13.3% (10.8% BEV), and considering that the last quarter of the year is usually China’s strongest, we can now safely assume that the country’s plugin vehicle market share will end above the 15% mark this year.

shinytop

ABrass said:

shinytop said:

ABrass said:

shinytop said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010ntb

Interesting article on batteries.  They also discuss EVs and the estimates for how much emissions we (the UK) will be saving by 2050 are a bit underwhelming at about 1% of the total.  The assumption is that 25% of miles will be EV by then.  Obviously that will go up afterwards.

 I know it has to happen but it seems like a lot of effort and cost for not a lot of gain. 

That doesn't sound right.

If we are banning new Petrol cars by 2035 (diesel will be dead well before that anyway) then we're supposed to believe that 75% of miles will be done in cars at least 15 years old?

But don't worry, the EV pain will be over by 2025. Then they will be cheaper to buy than petrol cars as well as cheaper to own. Everyone is happy.

The numbers included commercial vehicles, not just cars.

I'm not worrying, but EVs won't be cheaper to run in the long term than ICE cars.  There might be a short time when it is made such to encourage the switch. They are cheaper to run now because their 'fuel' is hugely subsidised compared to petrol and diesel.  That won't last.  And the biggest downward pressure on EV purchase prices is the fact that ICE cars are much cheaper.  Once ICE cars are gone then so is that competition.   

So electricity prices are going to quadruple? Cool, I guess I'll order those solar panels sooner rather than later.

I suppose they might but I don't think I said that. There are other ways to make running an EV more expensive.  I just can't see the widespread use EVs reducing the cost of personal motorised transport.  Nor do I think it should btw.    

QrizB

shinytop said:

ABrass said:

So electricity prices are going to quadruple? Cool, I guess I'll order those solar panels sooner rather than later.

I suppose they might but I don't think I said that. There are other ways to make running an EV more expensive.  I just can't see the widespread use EVs reducing the cost of personal motorised transport.  Nor do I think it should btw.    

Road pricing has been mentioned, with the suggestion that it would be collected by your insurance company. (IMO it would make more sense to collect it with your road tax, or even with your MOT, but what do I know.)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/15/uk-public-warms-to-road-pricing-fuel-duty-replacement-considered

If fuel duty is 58p/litre that's around 5-6p/mile for a small-ish modern-ish ICE. Applying the same rates to an EV would mean between £400-£600/year for 8-10k miles.