Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

JKenH

I will keep pointing this out because it is always ignored; the kWhs charged by your electricity company are not the same as end up in the car battery. The Tesla M3 has around 80% charging efficiency so you are charged for 5kWh for every 4kWh that reaches the battery. So 10000 miles at a headline 4mpkWh = 2500kwh used which equates to 3125 kWh from the charger.

You then have to make an allowance for vampire losses which iric correctly from @solarchaser can be as high as 25% over a weekend, that’s around 10% (5kWh) per day. Even if the vampire losses were only 1kWh per day that would be 365 kWh lost which is 456kwh from the plug pa. 

The total consumption of electricity over 10,000 miles pa therefore becomes 3581 kWh at 5p per kWh or £179 pa.

I doubt anyone however has managed to drive 10,000 miles per annum solely on power from the home at 5p and I doubt that anyone would buy a Tesla if they thought that’s what they were going to be doing. You buy a Tesla because you want to access the Supercharger network. Most realistic assessments adopt an average electricity cost of 4p per mile which would equate to £400.

The myth however will be maintained (at least on here) that it only costs £125 (2500kWh at 5p) to drive 10000 miles in an EV. 

Grumpy_chap

@JKenH with £400 for energy / fuel is much closer to the original £500 I was at...

CKhalvashi

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

You seem to be obsessed with an initial price differential (the con's), whilst completely ignoring running costs (the pro's) every single time. But we need to consider all costs, and time, for the TCO.

That is absolutely not the case, and I've said so:

Grumpy_chap said:

Either way, for what are broadly "comparable" types of car, it is still a variance of £8k or more.  On that variance in capital, the Tesla may well achieve lower total cost of ownership but, for many, the extra cost-to-entry is the precluding factor.

Every time, my comment has been in the context of the additional capital cost being a barrier to entry.  Most car buyers are not sitting there doing a full life-cycle-cost-analysis and, even if they did, if they don't have the extra £000s, then they can't chose the lower outturn cost solution.

If a few extra £000s was not an issue (for most it is a lot of money), no-one would ever buy a 2 yo car because they could just dip in for the extra few £000s and have brand new.

I am converted - at the beginning of last year (2020) I was seriously looking at suitable EV's to replace my ageing Focus.  Supply-chain problems (then) followed by COVID mean that I now have the car laid up and just walk so, no point in buying anything for the time being.  It may well have worked to my advantage as the price and range of EVs is only going in may favour.  My preferred next car remains the TM3LR, but the MG5 could be a serious contender also.  Ultimately, it has to be an out-turn that is "better" than a Mondeo.

Regarding the IONIQ, I didn't look to see the change of battery spec., and simply pulled latest new prices from the Hyundai website for comparison of cost-to-entry challenge.

Ultimately, someone has to bear the cost of that higher depreciation over the life of the car.  The lower running cost can only be secured if that increased capital outlay is met somehow.

But, at the entry level end of the market, depending on battery performance over the life of the car, I'll probably keep mine for 7-8 years at 25-30k miles/year pre-pandemic, about 1800 miles/month at the moment, so when it becomes available it'll be reasonably cheap.

There are a number of Leafs cheap, for example this one where an offer of £4k should suffice.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202109046982244?fuel-type=Electric&postcode=sw1a1aa&onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=Used&include-delivery-option=on&radius=1500&advertising-location=at_cars&sort=price-asc&page=1.

If that's not yout thing, take a look at this Citroen where again, an offer of £4k should suffice.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202109127280920?postcode=sw1a1aa&radius=1500&fuel-type=Electric&include-delivery-option=on&onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=Used&sort=price-asc&advertising-location=at_cars&page=1

For an average commuter, either these or the many other similar cars on the website linked would be perfect.

On both, I'd pay about £1.50 to top them up to 80 miles, a car at 40mpg would cost around £11.80 at the moment, so for arguments sake a £10 saving. 32000 miles at £4k and the car has paid for itself with all other things being equal, around 40k miles including a home charger which could then be used for the replacement car. That's 4-ish years for many, and there's no indication that either wouldn't last that.

I pay around 11.2p/kWh for electricity at home on a night rate, which the provider claims is fully renewable.

Grumpy_chap

CKhalvashi said:

But, at the entry level end of the market, depending on battery performance over the life of the car, I'll probably keep mine for 7-8 years at 25-30k miles/year pre-pandemic, about 1800 miles/month at the moment, so when it becomes available it'll be reasonably cheap.

There are a number of Leafs cheap, for example this one where an offer of £4k should suffice.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202109046982244?fuel-type=Electric&postcode=sw1a1aa&onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=Used&include-delivery-option=on&radius=1500&advertising-location=at_cars&sort=price-asc&page=1.

If that's not yout thing, take a look at this Citroen where again, an offer of £4k should suffice.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202109127280920?postcode=sw1a1aa&radius=1500&fuel-type=Electric&include-delivery-option=on&onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=Used&sort=price-asc&advertising-location=at_cars&page=1

For an average commuter, either these or the many other similar cars on the website linked would be perfect.

On both, I'd pay about £1.50 to top them up to 80 miles, a car at 40mpg would cost around £11.80 at the moment, so for arguments sake a £10 saving. 32000 miles at £4k and the car has paid for itself with all other things being equal, around 40k miles including a home charger which could then be used for the replacement car. That's 4-ish years for many, and there's no indication that either wouldn't last that.

I pay around 11.2p/kWh for electricity at home on a night rate, which the provider claims is fully renewable.

Big leap down to a rather constrained Citroen or Leaf that would not suffice as an only car unable to even do my round trip commute (as it was before COVID).  Indeed, the very early EV's probably did more to create reinforced ICE-users than further the case of the EV.

My Mum's Cousin actually had a C-Zero and wrote in technical journals about how wonderful it was.  When he came to visit us, I asked to have a look, only to be met with a look of astonishment that I was daft to think an EV could ever do that type of journey and, obviously, he was in the AMG petrol E-Class.

Fortunately, EV's have progressed much since then.

CKhalvashi

Grumpy_chap said:

CKhalvashi said:

But, at the entry level end of the market, depending on battery performance over the life of the car, I'll probably keep mine for 7-8 years at 25-30k miles/year pre-pandemic, about 1800 miles/month at the moment, so when it becomes available it'll be reasonably cheap.

There are a number of Leafs cheap, for example this one where an offer of £4k should suffice.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202109046982244?fuel-type=Electric&postcode=sw1a1aa&onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=Used&include-delivery-option=on&radius=1500&advertising-location=at_cars&sort=price-asc&page=1.

If that's not yout thing, take a look at this Citroen where again, an offer of £4k should suffice.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202109127280920?postcode=sw1a1aa&radius=1500&fuel-type=Electric&include-delivery-option=on&onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=Used&sort=price-asc&advertising-location=at_cars&page=1

For an average commuter, either these or the many other similar cars on the website linked would be perfect.

On both, I'd pay about £1.50 to top them up to 80 miles, a car at 40mpg would cost around £11.80 at the moment, so for arguments sake a £10 saving. 32000 miles at £4k and the car has paid for itself with all other things being equal, around 40k miles including a home charger which could then be used for the replacement car. That's 4-ish years for many, and there's no indication that either wouldn't last that.

I pay around 11.2p/kWh for electricity at home on a night rate, which the provider claims is fully renewable.

Big leap down to a rather constrained Citroen or Leaf that would not suffice as an only car unable to even do my round trip commute (as it was before COVID).  Indeed, the very early EV's probably did more to create reinforced ICE-users than further the case of the EV.

My Mum's Cousin actually had a C-Zero and wrote in technical journals about how wonderful it was.  When he came to visit us, I asked to have a look, only to be met with a look of astonishment that I was daft to think an EV could ever do that type of journey and, obviously, he was in the AMG petrol E-Class.

Fortunately, EV's have progressed much since then.

That is true, but for 1 car out of 2 doing minimal mileage, something like this will be ideal. I'm sure I'd feel comfortable unleashing the Leaf on my commute (but not longer range trips that occasionally have to be done), but potentially the C-Zero would be pushing the limits of range daily, especially now I've moved house (5 miles further to work in each direction).

With the Hyundai, I debated with OH actually that it may be problematic if she's sent to the other London-area airport her company has a base at (she's based at one 30-ish miles one way but a re-basing does occasionally happen due to staffing needs of the company), as she'd be worried at 120-ish miles of all motorway driving. We're looking at a second EV at the moment to replace the Yeti, and it will be a longer range one. I think we all agree that the last thing anyone wants to do after a 12 hour day is try to find somewhere to charge for an hour to get home.

Solarchaser

Since i was tagged, yeah the Tesla *CAN* lose 25% over the weekend if you leave sentry mode on and there's alot going on for sentry mode to activate several times.
However I've now set it to have sentry mode off only when at home (clever that you can do that) and it loses around 0-1% over a weekend.

I say 0-1% because there has only been 2 weekends I have not used it the whole weekend and 1 of them it was at the same percentage and the other it was 1% down.

I've also been paying some attention to the charging, since Ken raised it a few times, and to be honest it's a little puzzling.

I haven't granny charged it in a couple of months, but when I remember I have a look at the chargers I'm using and compare it to the charge received by the Tesla.
It seems to vary a bit from charger to charger, the ccs dc chargers seem to be between 90 and 100% efficient... puzzling right, it must lose some, but when Tesla says its taken 65kwh and the charger says its supplied 65kwh... 🤷‍♂️

I did have 1 in the Highlands where it told me it supplied 43kwh and the Tesla said it only got 35kwh which would be 82% efficient, but I could put that down to it being the only time I was charging it at 2c, and it would make sense the temperature *could* effect efficiency. 

The ac chargers are more varied, I've seen legitimate efficiency of 88% several times and also 93% several times.

There is a fudge factor here because the Tesla doesn't tell me decimal places, so if it says 10kwh it could be 10 or 10.9 conceivably,  so I've always tried to work efficiency when it's been 30kwh or more to lessen the fudge factor.

The other thing is not all chargers have a screen, or an output display, so it could even be the ones with screens being newer are more efficient 🤷‍♂️

Edited as I noticed I'd typed 95-100% instead of 90-100%

JKenH

I had assumed what you paid for from a DC charger was what you got and was only applying the charging loss calculation to home AC charging. Maybe different chargers charge differently. One to keep an eye on. 

Usually when I DC charge I am in a bit of a rush and don’t note the before and after figures down. Next time  I will try and get some figures using Leafspy. 

Unless you use a plug meter it’s hard to get an accurate reading for a granny charger but I seem to recall I got something like 1.8 kw at the car from 2.3 at the plug. My Zappi gives more detail and Leafspy is more accurate than the % added recorded by the car. 

I suspect that the charging efficiency will vary with the state of charge of the car as well. 

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

@JKenH with £400 for energy / fuel is much closer to the original £500 I was at...

On this board we are pretty switched on about our electricity costs but only 44% of domestic meters are smart and only 35% of  meters are actually working in smart mode. Not all domestic users with smart meters will be on TOU tariffs. so quite a few people will be paying standard tariff for their electricity. 

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Hiya, yes, every time you comment in the context of the price differential being a barrier to entry, I completely agree that that's what you do. But most people don't pay outright for the cars. You'll know this as you give an absolute tonne of excellent advice to folk every day on the Motoring forum, and because it's been mentioned so many times to you on here.

So again you have obsessed over the initial cost of the car, not the monthly cost, which for many will be similar, and not the enormous barrier to entry that you make it out to be. I simply can't understand why you seem to be deliberately ignoring this element every time, no matter how many times it is mentioned.

Edit - Ok try this example, which option costs more over a one year period?:

1. Initial cost £100, running costs £1pm.
2. Initial cost £10, running costs £10pm.

Yes, that is absolutely what I say and I also alert the danger of just the monthly cost being considered when I comment in the motoring forum.  Sadly, the marketing people in the motoring world use this focus on monthlies to sell cars that are not affordable. 

The example I cited earlier today shows this in quite an extreme form:

Grumpy_chap said:

There is a real danger in PCP pricing that it makes very vastly different cars the same price.  My local Jaguar dealer landing page today has a brand new I-Pace for £579 per month.  Also a 2012 Jaguar XF, 51k miles, £704 per month.  Clearly, not everyone interested in the £11.5k used car can afford the brand new EV just because they played clever with the monthly payments.

Anyway, moving away from extremes and keeping the Lexus ES vs TM3 as the comparator vehicles, and using the manufacturer's website figures (which may be possible to improve upon but we need something quick and simple for comparison):

Lexus ES Premium Edition:

• Deposit £6k
• Monthly £372
• 48 months 10k miles / year
• 47 x £372 = £17.5k
• Balloon £14k

Ignore the balloon, as in the "monthly is all that matters world" this never gets paid. 
The customer pays £17.5k + £6k = £24 k over four years = £6k / year.

TESLA Model 3 SR:

• Deposit £6k
• Monthly £515
• 48 months 10k miles / year
• 47 x £515 = £24k
• Balloon £15k

The customer pays £24k + £6k = £30 k over four years = £7.5k / year.

I think, for many, <£400 monthly versus >£500 monthly will be the same psychological barrier to entry as the £41k vs £32k cash price.  You may disagree, which is fine.

Now, we move to the life-cycle cost analysis which, frankly, the vast majority of people really do not do when buying a car.  Those that do probably do so only to justify the decision their heart already made.

Lexus 50 mpg combined.
10 k miles = 200 gallons unleaded = 910 litres
£1.35 per litre = £1,230 per year
Plus the cost to PCP (£6k) = £7,230

TESLA
I can't easily find an energy figure on the website, but posters on this forum seem to suggest 4 miles / kWh.  I am sure someone will confirm this number.
10 k miles = 2,500 kWh
20 pence per kWh = £500 per year
(Some may better this with solar, some may be using public charging at more expensive rates, so standard domestic rates seems fair basis to use.)
Plus the cost to PCP (7.5k) = £8k

I have tried to do this with an open mind and reasonable numbers.  I don't stand to gain by erroneous numbers as it is actually the type of internal debate I am having right now.  Whenever I return to the office and need a car again, then I'll be looking for a new model and this is genuinely the type of assessment I am doing.  The "low running cost beats everything" brigade are not clearly winning.

I will be happy for errors in the calculation or assumptions to be set out for me as we all benefit from accuracy.

In the mean-time, I'm sticking with lock-down shanks's pony (greener, more MSE and keeps me fitter than either the Lexus or the TESLA).

Hiya, thanks for that. I appreciate the information, my concerns previously were that you only seemed to focus on the cost of entry as a negative, and not mention any of the benefits.

I'm sure your numbers above are reasonable, but I would still disagree at the comparison, given that the TM3 is a performance vehicle, and the Lexus certainly isn't, plus of course the fact that BEV's bring a green and ethical argument to the party, whereas ICEV's and 'self charging hybrid's' don't. These concerns were heightened by the fact that you kept trying to introduce the TM3 LR into the comparison, which adds a tonne more power and AWD, without changing the Lexus model you were making the comparison too. If you move to more powerful and or AWD Lexi, or look to lower priced BEV's more comparable to the ES 300, then you don't benefit from the cost differential.

I would question the charge cost you've chosen, mine is far lower, being PV in the summer and E7 in the winter. I accept that others may pay more, as you mention, but I suspect most buyers today have the ability to charge at home/work. I appreciate that over time, more BEV buyers will be charging say at on-street chargers, but I raise this issue, since you are using the current purchase price differential as a barrier to entry, when we know that BEV prices will keep falling due to falling battery costs and rising production economies. It also fair to say, I believe, that ICEV's costs will actually rise as they have to meet ever more stringent emissions and efficiency legislation, whilst production/sales numbers fall, reducing their production economies.

If you look to Cleantechnica, they have run numerous TCO comparisons over the last 2-3yrs, typically over 5yr ownership, and found the BEV to be cheaper than an ICE, but PHEV's to be more expensive than the ICE. And that's with low US 'gas' prices, but typically at higher average US annual mileage. There have also been a number of studies now by US law enforcement, showing lower BEV costs, but these are extreme edge cases.

For straight purchases, the TM3 does extremely well in the depreciation department too, but I hesitate to use that issue since depreciation may increase as the number and percentage of BEV's grow, but again, that time issue also brings in the benefits of falling BEV costs, v's rising costs of ICEV's.

At present, the supply of BEV's doesn't seem able to keep up with demand, so expect further cost reductions over time as balance is restored, though personally, I suspect supply to remain an issue for most of this decade, as the Osborne Effect kicks in, and buyers shift from ICEV's to BEV's faster than production can.

PS - It's extremely heartening to read in other posts that you are thinking positively about BEV's. I'd certainly recommend you go for it if the thought is there, as the doubts evaporate very quickly once you jump in. And the ability to charge at extremely low costs if you are able to combine PV and E7 (type deals), perhaps 1.5p - 3p/mile, is a massive cross benefit from the G&E side of the equation.

QrizB

Thank you everyone for doing these calculations.

It will be interesting in 3-4 years when the current crop of PCP/PCH cars show up in the used market and we see just how strong EV residuals are (or aren't).