Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

JKenH

Slashing costs of electric vehicle charging points will strain grid

Andy Prendergast, GMB National Secretary, said:

"No one is arguing electric vehicles can make a massive difference in the move towards net zero.

"But there is little doubt this is going to put a massive strain on an electricity grid which is already operating close to capacity. 

"There is already a real risk of brownouts as the grid becomes overwhelmed - that’s before you add the extra electricity needed for electric vehicles and heat pumps.”

https://www.gmb.org.uk/news/slashing-costs-electric-vehicle-charging-points-will-strain-grid

Martyn1981

The fears and dodgy claims about the grid have been around since BEV's were touted as a serious option.

It's quite funny, almost, to see them coming up again, every now and then. To save time repeating stuff I repeated a year ago, having repeated it for years before, I'll just cut and paste from the old EV thread:

Quote:   What worries me is though the gov is in denial is the fact we will not have the capacity to charge all eltric cars and eltric prices will shoot up in my jusgment as supply v demand will reuslt in price hikes if supply is hard to get. 

My response: If you do the maths quick you will find that 30m cars at an average of 2,000kWh pa (7,900 mile pa average, and ~4 miles/kWh) works out at 60TWh or approx 17% (gross) increase in leccy demand. That's not a problem, we can add more supply, that's simply supply and demand economics. In reality, after you deduct the reduced energy demand by refineries, the net increase is probably closer to 10%, or 20%-25% if we include all light and heavy goods vehicles too. 

As for price rises, that seems highly unlikely given the rapidly falling costs of renewable energy, especially now that even off-shore wind contracts are coming in below the UK average wholesale price, and UK national waters have the potential to supply 10 to 100 times our future energy needs (alone). 

More likely, BEV charging will create an excellent market for the low demand period, where leccy has to be sold off cheap (E7) to create a market for it.

[Since writing this, I believe that the NG have also suggested a net increase of ~10% in leccy demand, if all UK cars became BEV's.]

Quote: We only have 142,000 electric cars at the moment (https://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/statistics/). However, if they all go for a 50kw fast charge at once, that works out to 7,100 MW, or 7.1GW, and the National grid maxes out at 50GW.

There is going to be an awful lot of charge management required if we get upto 10% of the cars in the UK  all electric (there are 38 million running about https://www.racfoundation.org/motoring-faqs/mobility), i.e. we had 3.8 million of them, and they were all on 7kw chargers that would be 50% of the grid capacity going into charging- bear in mind we get it to the high 40s in Winter, and that is burning a lot of gas for heating, we are really going to be In Trouble when they ban the use of fossil fuels for domestic heating & transport. 

My response: I think you've built a conclusion based on a whole raft of assumptions.

I appreciate that your 'all BEV's charging at 50kW' now example is supposed to make us think about a future with many more, but it is an extreme and unlikely scenario. The average car drives 7,900 miles pa, or 150 miles per week, or 22 miles per day, so a 50kW charger would provide a 'day's worth' in ~11 mins. I struggle to understand why all the BEV's would want to use fast chargers (when the majority of charging is done slowly overnight), and all during the same 11 mins on a particular day.

You can of course escalate the example up to perhaps 30m BEV's, with a smaller and smaller % of them needing fast charging, but even that argument would be silly, since if you think about it, fast charging at any specific time point will be limited by the number of fast chargers in existence.

Then we can further interrogate your assumptions by asking how many of those fast chargers will have on-site battery storage, for the specific purpose of spreading peak loads across a wider (and cheaper) supply period.

Moving on to your charge management if we reach 10% BEV's. Well first off that is already happening as the home chargers (7kW) being rolled out are 'smart' and therefore charge management can be deployed. But more importantly we need to go back to real demand, rather than panic over theoretical extremes.

I've previously suggested that cars will add (gross) about 60TWh to the UK's leccy consumption. I think it's fair to assume that the bulk of that will be spread across the low demand period (8pm to 8am), so 60TWh / (365 x 12) = 13.7GW.Given that the grid already supplies between 20GW and 55GW (typically) varying from lows in summer nights, to highs in winter evenings (5-7pm peak as part of 4-8pm high demand), we can see that adding 13.7GW during the low demand period is not a problem and remains well down on the grids average peak, and its actual higher potential peak capacity.

To think of it a different way, and based on the assumption that 30m cars means we can safely assume averaging, then an average car will consume ~5kWh per day, and I'll cheat a bit and simply say there will be 1.5 cars per residence. So that's 7.5kWh per day, drawn from 8pm to 8am, is an equivalent average load of 625W per residence.

Obviously you can point to the need for fast charging for some vehicles, but that (as explained earlier) will be managed naturally, and will in fact reduce load a small bit on the average overnight figures I have given.

And now for the best bit. If you really are concerned about peak demand periods then don't worry there is a great solution on its way, and almost as a side effect. That solution is V2G (vehicle to grid) where plugged in BEV's can be used to help manage the grid by mopping up cheap excesses or adding supply when demand/prices rise. 30m BEV's would contain about 1,500GWh of batteries. The estimate for intra-day storgae in a 100% RE future is approx 500GWh, so BEV's could actually provide the excess absorption and peak load support we need. [Note - Intra-day storage will manage daily RE fluctuations. For longer term storage to meet larger RE cycles, we will of course need larger amounts of storage, most likely H2, CAES/LAES, flow batts etc. etc..]

It's almost as if BEV's are part of the solution, not the problem.

EVandPV

On the subject of V2G .....

UK Energy Regulator Supports Vehicle-To-Grid Proposal

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/09/05/uk-energy-regulator-supports-vehicle-to-grid-proposal/

All Volkswagen MEB-Based Electric Cars Will Be V2G Capable Beginning In 2022

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/04/06/all-volkswagen-meb-based-electric-cars-will-be-v2g-capable-beginning-in-2022/

JKenH

Nothing to worry about then. All EV use is spread out evenly over the week and no one wants to charge their car between 4 and 7pm. Except me of course. I use my Octopus Go Faster tariff to fill up my car before a long run but the last two long runs necessitated rapid (actually not all that rapid in a Leaf) charges in the late afternoon because I wanted to get home. I’m not aware of time of use charging on rapids but perhaps it will come - not sure I will want to hang around after a long day though for a cheap rate to get me home.

Once we have full penetration of EVs then the 30% of users without off street parking will be using public chargers and when better to plug in than on the way home from work, maybe if you’re lucky at a free charger at the supermarket or at a rapid if you can’t be bothered to wait. Maybe that will only be a full charge once a week for most people but they will have to charge sometime and between 8pm and 8am might not be the most convenient time. 

“As for price rises, that seems highly unlikely given the rapidly falling costs of renewable energy, ” - well that’s not quite working out as planned. 

Martyn1981

JKenH said:

Nothing to worry about then. All EV use is spread out evenly over the week and no one wants to charge their car between 4 and 7pm. Except me of course. I use my Octopus Go Faster tariff to fill up my car before a long run but the last two long runs necessitated rapid (actually not all that rapid in a Leaf) charges in the late afternoon because I wanted to get home. I’m not aware of time of use charging on rapids but perhaps it will come. 

Once we have full penetration of EVs then the 30% of users without off street parking will be using public chargers and when better to plug in than on the way home from work, maybe if you’re lucky at a free charger at the supermarket or at a rapid if you can’t be bothered to wait. Maybe that will only be a full charge once a week for most people but they will have to charge sometime and between 8pm and 8am might not be the most convenient time. 

“As for price rises, that seems highly unlikely given the rapidly falling costs of renewable energy, ” - well that’s not quite working out as planned. 

I'm sorry, but giving examples as to why some people won't be able to charge overnight, does not mean that the grid won't be able to cope in terms of power nor energy. We need to consider the realistic reality, not go down silly rabbit holes.

On that same issue of reality, it's also not sensible to go to extremes all the time. Trying to suggest, or imply disaster whilst pushing FUD (be it energy, or current EV charging infrastructure), and then trying to falsely describe all rational replies that accept there are issues, as painting a picture of perfection, does nothing for reasonable and rational debate. This extremism helps nobody, and just helps to prolong old, tired, and fact less fears.

For instance, the final quote, seems to imply my long term position on energy prices is wrong, based on current short term fluctuations, yet, when reasonableness and reality are applied, it is entirely false to come to that conclusion given the extremely small percentage of BEV's currently on the road - so clearly there is no link, and therefore a point made purely to be contrarian, and dare I say disruptive.

JKenH

Don’t they say “Let’s hope for the best and plan for the worst.”

JKenH

EVandPV said:

On the subject of V2G .....

UK Energy Regulator Supports Vehicle-To-Grid Proposal

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/09/05/uk-energy-regulator-supports-vehicle-to-grid-proposal/

All Volkswagen MEB-Based Electric Cars Will Be V2G Capable Beginning In 2022

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/04/06/all-volkswagen-meb-based-electric-cars-will-be-v2g-capable-beginning-in-2022/

Owning a Leaf, in fact buying one on the expectation that V2H and V2G would become a reality, I am quite interested to see how this pans out. I even started a thread on the topic.

My son is on a V2G trial and his experience to date isn’t great. If you follow the V2G Facebook threads you will see that others are having problems and some are leaving the trials. 

One other problem is the way some DNOs look at export. I couldn’t even get the ok for a battery as they added the theoretical battery discharge to my theoretical peak solar output (which can never be achieved with an E/W roof and I wanted the battery for self consumption rather than export) so I see no chance of being allowed to do V2G. 

Has any company yet moved from the trial phase of V2G to actual implementation? I can’t believe it could be that hard to get it working. Maybe Tesla will sort it as they employ the right sort of tech guys. 

Heedtheadvice

It is reasonable and real to raise some concerns (it might be contrarian and disruptive too) but even with predictions there are several unknown such as our future generation capability and when the demand peaks for EVs will occur.

I suspect (do not know) that most EVs used domestically at present with be for those with home parking charging access.

That enables some daytime (home or work) charging and some overnight charging. When EV roll out ismuch more widespread domestically many will, not having home facilities, have to rely on daytime charging.

That is just one limited example but we need to ensure demand and capacity match during identical periods.

We do not know currently exactly what will be needed, hence lots of research and modelling is required and we rely on many an assumption to model and there is no guarantee of correctness.

EV demand could well be much higher in wintertime when existing general demand is higher and create a peak that we might not cope with.

Renewable generation is still variable and a bit unpredictable and as we move more towards that as the vast majority of power source under and over generation needs better management through storage. Bear in mind reduced output from nuclear and fossil fuel sources when demand peaks.

Now offsetting those risks are new(ish) facilities such as expanded hydrostorage, industrial scale and domestic/car battery storage, predictable (but still variable) tidal generation posibilities, hydrogen use (probably only industrial and heavy/public service vehicles) etc. and things we have yet to comprehend.

I am not a doomsayer, being contrarian or hopefully being disruptive but there are potentially lots of issues that need addressing and that is not happening fast enough for my liking! Many an idea and scheme in it's infancy to combat the capacity/demand balance but seemingly relying mainly on business inovation with little political will to make big strides in the public sector. Other ideological aims take precedence such as Brexit, independence, making a quick buck, personal aims etc.

A huge amount of data and estimations floating around on the net and it is easy to pick out those that we think might be correct or suit agendas but not so easy to get a proper, accurate, balanced assessment!

JKenH

Edmunds separates fact from fiction about green cars

Yet another EV article from the DailyMail (straight from AP). At least they are trying. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-9969453/Edmunds-separates-fact-fiction-green-cars.html

Martyn1981

Heedtheadvice said:

It is reasonable and real to raise some concerns (it might be contrarian and disruptive too) but even with predictions there are several unknown such as our future generation capability and when the demand peaks for EVs will occur.

I suspect (do not know) that most EVs used domestically at present with be for those with home parking charging access.

That enables some daytime (home or work) charging and some overnight charging. When EV roll out ismuch more widespread domestically many will, not having home facilities, have to rely on daytime charging.

That is just one limited example but we need to ensure demand and capacity match during identical periods.

We do not know currently exactly what will be needed, hence lots of research and modelling is required and we rely on many an assumption to model and there is no guarantee of correctness.

EV demand could well be much higher in wintertime when existing general demand is higher and create a peak that we might not cope with.

Renewable generation is still variable and a bit unpredictable and as we move more towards that as the vast majority of power source under and over generation needs better management through storage. Bear in mind reduced output from nuclear and fossil fuel sources when demand peaks.

Now offsetting those risks are new(ish) facilities such as expanded hydrostorage, industrial scale and domestic/car battery storage, predictable (but still variable) tidal generation posibilities, hydrogen use (probably only industrial and heavy/public service vehicles) etc. and things we have yet to comprehend.

I am not a doomsayer, being contrarian or hopefully being disruptive but there are potentially lots of issues that need addressing and that is not happening fast enough for my liking! Many an idea and scheme in it's infancy to combat the capacity/demand balance but seemingly relying mainly on business inovation with little political will to make big strides in the public sector. Other ideological aims take precedence such as Brexit, independence, making a quick buck, personal aims etc.

A huge amount of data and estimations floating around on the net and it is easy to pick out those that we think might be correct or suit agendas but not so easy to get a proper, accurate, balanced assessment!

Yep, considerations within the realistic band are necessary and important. But falling for hysterical negativity is not.

Can I ask, in your example of those that don't have home facilities, so would most likely rely on street charging and shared communal chargers, why won't they use overnight charging? I'm not saying they all will charge overnight, and I suspect workplace charging, and street charging (near work) will take place during the day for many, I'm just not clear why they won't charge overnight. Obviously daytime charging is useful as it will mostly lie outside of the evening peak period, and hopefully provide a great source of excess absorption during high solar generation periods. V2G will also allow for daytime balancing.

As to the not happening fast enough issue, again I'm not sure what the problem is there. As I tried to set out in my post, using actual numbers, the future impact on the grid is nowhere near as great as some suggest. And that impact won't fully arrive for around 20-25yrs, as BEV sales rise to 100%, and then the existing ICE fleet is displaced. Neither the increase in power (especially with smart chargers) nor the increase in energy, is dramatic, perhaps 1%pa. [1%pa perhaps for energy, but there may be no increase whatsoever in peak power (as a result of BEV's) since most charging at peak times will be avoided, can be constrained by smart chargers, and/or offset by V2G discharge.]

That's why it's so important to look at the numbers rationally, and not be mislead by scaremongering news articles.

I do agree that action in general, especially a shift to RE generation, could be faster, and it's frustrating that charging facilities as a whole are currently behind the curve, but the storage side of the problem (and I find that subject enthralling) can't really roll out quickly at the moment since the issue is one of chicken and egg - until there is an economically worthwhile excess to harvest, we won't see storage expand quickly, but the good news is that the need for intraday balancing of a future RE grid, will, almost by accident, resolve any BEV charging issues, since as I've laid out, neither the additional power, nor energy, will actually be that great, so balancing it within 'normal' storage needs will be fine, and in fact with V2G, BEV's will most likely be part of the solution, too.


Edit - I've realised that I skipped over some issues. That wasn't deliberate, just addressing the bigger ones, but since this is such an interesting subject, let me just clarify a few points.

Yes, winter leccy demand is higher, that's why I gave the higher winter peak figure.

I tried to squash most domestic BEV demand into the 12hr evening period, not to hide any issues, but to show how the impact even at the most extreme end (plan for the worst), was not a problem at all. Any charging done during the day will actually reduce the nightime demand, and as daytime peaks tend to be around 30-40GW, then daytime charging power capacity should not be an issue, again I have assumed that charging in the peak period 5-7pm will be minimised, but I feel this is reasonable given that people may be travelling (home), punitive charging rates, smart chargers, and financial benefits of charging overnight (plus V2G potential).

Overall, yes there are many issues we need to consider, and many potential variables. that's actually why, about 4yrs ago, I first calculated all these figures, based on the future potential of a whole BEV fleet. The attempt is to address the issue and concerns raised with actual numbers and facts, and thereby disperse the fear through understanding. If we can cope with 100% BEV's, then transitioning to it, should be fine, especially given the lengthy time period.

Hope that makes sense.