Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

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QrizB said:

My father has pretty strong green credentials - he's looking into solar PV and a heat pump for his retirement property, for example - but he's remarkably cold on BEVs. I think it's just range anxiety but I could see him continuing to run ICE vehicles long after a BEV would make more economic 

I am retired and there is PV solar on my roof and a PW2 in the garage. It cost me less than a new kitchen (I like to think of it in that way) rather than a simple RoI. 

I am now starting my 7th year of EV ownership. My first EV had 80 miles of range on a nice summer’s day. My present EV weighs nearly twice as much and has a range of 290 miles with miles/kWh similar to my original lightweight EV. In the unlikely event that I would need to charge enroute, the car is capable of taking on power at a rate of 150kWs. Even I would need a comfort break at 290 miles. 

Yes, the UK needs more ultra rapid/rapid chargers but the situation is not as dire as some would like to make out. As was the case 7 years ago, every EV trip does though need a fallback charging plan; ie, don’t drive the car to maximum range only to find that the chosen charger is u/s.

CKhalvashi

Martyn1981 said:

OK, here's a bit of a shocker. An article on Cleantechnica referring to this one from Bloomberg: 

At Least Two-Thirds of Global Car Sales Will Be Electric by 2040

that suggests (as per the title) 2/3rds of car sales will be electric by 2040. The reason I was shocked, and searched for the original article, is because the main graph has a linear growth of BEV's! The article talks about price parity of BEV's v's ICE, even suggests BEV's being cheaper in Europe in the mid/late 2020's.

There's no cliff edge in Bloomberg's graph, suggesting people will pay more, for a less efficient and more expensive to operate vehicle, long after BEV's are 'better'. It must also assume that Gov's and manufacturers are OK with this too. Falling sales of ICEV's will push up costs due to diminishing returns of scale, and falling resale values will push up the cost of lease payments too.

All a bit weird, and whilst at first glance quite promising, it seems to miss the true scale of disruption, that some countries are already starting to see.

Sales Of Fossil-Fuel Vehicles Have Already Peaked, Bloomberg Predicts

A recent article in Bloomberg makes the bold assertion that sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have already peaked, so the future of the global auto industry belongs to EVs.

The article outlines some of the trends that underlie this prediction, illustrated with a series of graphs.

EVs may still be more expensive than fossils, but that won’t be the case for much longer. Bloomberg finds that, in Europe, battery EVs are approaching purchase-price parity with ICE vehicles. On a total-cost-of-ownership basis, driving an EV is already cheaper than driving a comparable legacy vehicle. In fact, Loup Ventures concluded in 2019 that Tesla’s Model 3 was slightly cheaper to own and operate over a five-year period than Toyota’s mass-market Camry. [Editor’s note: We have conducted several such analyses ourselves here on CleanTechnica showing the same.]

I think the driver here to offset higher purchase costs is going to be effective fleet financing (possibly with a small subsidy), especially in Eastern Europe where interest rates are much higher on average. This will naturally push a fleet of used EVs into private hands in a few years.

We can make the total cost of ownership work in many countries for the size of vehicle we use at 3-4% interest, but not at 10%. This is based on a 36/48 month finance term with 15% deposit.

shinytop

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

There's no cliff edge in Bloomberg's graph, suggesting people will pay more, for a less efficient and more expensive to operate vehicle, long after BEV's are 'better'.

My father has pretty strong green credentials - he's looking into solar PV and a heat pump for his retirement property, for example - but he's remarkably cold on BEVs. I think it's just range anxiety but I could see him continuing to run ICE vehicles long after a BEV would make more economic sense.

shinytop said:

I didn't think we were anywhere near parity for purchase price of BEVs vs ICE in Europe if grants are discounted.  That's just an impression, not a proper analysis.

At £2500, the current UK grant is roughly 10% of the purchase price of a cheap BEV. And somewhere upthread we compared the PCH/PCP prices of Vauxhall Corsas; the ICE and EV versions were pretty much the same price, due (I think) to the higher residual value of a 3-year-old BEV vs. the ICE version.

shinytop said:

I think something that is often overlooked in Europe is the huge subsidy BEVs get over their ICE counterparts, i.e. the lack of fuel tax  and full VAT on electricity to power EVs.  From the consumer point of view it doesn't matter (for now) but that subsidy won't last forever.

I look forward to discovering how the Powers That Be plan to dye non-road-fuel electricity red, to let them distinguish it from Excise-paid electricity   (More seriously, I can see how this is a problem but I can't think of and obvious like-for-like solutions. The best I can come up with of is a per-mile charge of some sort.)

I think if we can have cars that can drive themselves, cars that tell HMRC how much energy they've used isn't going to be too much of a stretch (it may be for HMRC!)  A bit like smart meters, and look how well their rollout is going. 

I deliberately said purchase price rather than anything that depended on residuals.  I'm not sure EV residuals would compare as well if their running costs were on par with ICE vehicles. 

Anyway, hopefully prices of BEVs will fall enough so that a bit of extra tax won't matter.   

Hexane

Martyn1981 said:

OK, here's a bit of a shocker. An article on Cleantechnica 

Around here, that's not a shocker.

Are there any articles on Cleantechnica that *do not* get mentioned here?

if so, why not?

ABrass

Hexane said:

Martyn1981 said:

OK, here's a bit of a shocker. An article on Cleantechnica 

Around here, that's not a shocker.

Are there any articles on Cleantechnica that *do not* get mentioned here?

if so, why not?

They have a decent chunk that are filtered out. It has some good stuff but there's a lot of rubbish as well which doesn't get linked.

Martyn1981

The German team played a blinder in July, on home turf.

But overall numbers down a bit, as perhaps the chip shortage is impacting everyone.

Volkswagen Takes 3 Out Of Top 4 Spots In July In Germany — Plugin Vehicle Sales Report

The German plugin vehicle market scored over 55,000 registrations last month, with both plugin powertrains slowing down their growth (+52% year over year for BEVs and +58% year over year for PHEVs, compared with 185% and 182% respectively in the 2021 tally). As a result, last month’s plugin share ended at 24% (11% BEV), and if we add the 14% share of plugless hybrids (full hybrids + mild hybrids) to the plugin tally, we find that 38% of all registrations in the German passenger car market had some form of electrification last month. If you also consider the significant fall of the overall market (-25% YoY), that means diesel (-43% YoY) and petrol (-40%) sales are falling off a cliff.

Martyn1981

Speaking of chip shortages, Tesla's US TM3 SR+ are sold out for the year. But the story behind the story, is probably one of chip shortages(again) so a focus on the production and sale of the more expensive models.



Tesla pushes new Model 3 Standard Range Plus orders to 2022

Tesla has now pushed new Model 3 Standard Range Plus orders to 6 months out, all the way to January 2022. There are likely several factors at play.

Tesla has had strong demand in the US, which could explain the extraordinarily long delivery timeline.

But Tesla also has had significant supply chain issues, especially related to the chip shortage.

It makes sense for the automaker to prioritize more expensive versions of the Model 3 when it comes to new orders. Tesla could be sending more chips and microchips to those vehicles.

As for the Model Y, the Long Range version also has a significant delivery timeline of December 2021 for new orders, while Model Y Performance can be delivered on the same timeline as the Model 3 Performance:

Hexane

ABrass said:

Hexane said:

Martyn1981 said:

OK, here's a bit of a shocker. An article on Cleantechnica 

Around here, that's not a shocker.

Are there any articles on Cleantechnica that *do not* get mentioned here?

if so, why not?

They have a decent chunk that are filtered out. It has some good stuff but there's a lot of rubbish as well which doesn't get linked.

wow, if this is the filtered version then I will be staying well away from the unfiltered sewage

Certainly not a recommendation!

JKenH

shinytop said:

I didn't think we were anywhere near parity for purchase price of BEVs vs ICE in Europe if grants are discounted.  That's just an impression, not a proper analysis. 

I think something that is often overlooked in Europe is the huge subsidy BEVs get over their ICE counterparts, i.e. the lack of fuel tax  and full VAT on electricity to power EVs.  From the consumer point of view it doesn't matter (for now) but that subsidy won't last forever.  

 

According to this article from the Guardian, Bloomberg were predicting price parity in 2027. A lot could happen before then.

Electric cars ‘will be cheaper to produce than fossil fuel vehicles by 2027’

Electric cars and vans will be cheaper to produce than conventional, fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2027, and tighter emissions regulations could put them in pole position to dominate all new car sales by the middle of the next decade, research has found.

By 2026, larger vehicles such as electric sedans and SUVs will be as cheap to produce as petrol and diesel models, according to forecasts from BloombergNEF, with small cars reaching the threshold the following year.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/09/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-to-produce-than-fossil-fuel-vehicles-by-2027?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

EVandPV

UK's first electric vehicle smart charging scheme comes to Hackney

Backed by the government, The Agile Streets Project is pioneering the country's first on-street EV charging scheme, which aims to make it easier, and cheaper, for EV owners without off-street parking to recharge their vehicles.

The green scheme will be the first in the UK to integrate smart metering technology into public on-street chargers. This will allow for charging to be scheduled when energy is cheapest, such as on sunny days when solar energy is abundant or at night when electricity is cheap. 

https://www.hackneygazette.co.uk/news/electric-vehicle-charging-scheme-coming-to-hackney-8228200