Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Just as an aside, the MG 5 with a 52.5kwh battery is available new at around £20,600 which seems quite a bargain to me (but not necessarily to you😉).

It most definitely is

Currently, IMO, the best two EV's available, considering price and product, are the TM3 and the MG5.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Norway still crushing it, with 60% BEV sales in May, and BEV's slowly creeping up the total road fleet to ~12%.
Vehicles with no plug at all,  and not even hybrid, are down to single digits with 8.9% of sales.

Norway’s Plugin EV Transition Continues: 83.3% Share In May With Ford Mustang Mach-E Overall Bestseller

Norway, the leading country in the electric transport revolution, saw plugin electric vehicles take 83.3% share in May 2021, up from 65.6% in May 2020. Non-plugin powertrains, including old-school combustion and plugless hybrids, are all fading away. Overall auto volumes were back to pre-Covid seasonal norms, at 14,063 units in May. The Ford Mustang Mach-E saw a big push and was Norway’s overall bestselling vehicle in May.

Is this part "The Ford Mustang Mach-E saw a big push and was Norway’s overall bestselling vehicle in May." a great sign, or simply a managed chart topping?
I think Tesla did something very similar with the M3 when it was first launched in the UK - took pre-orders over a protracted period of time and then the first shipment landed so the cars arrived with customers in February just before the March plate change.

I also want to come back to understand the costs variance between ICE and EV.

Martyn1981 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

How has Norway achieved the 12% EV figure?
Obviously, there must be a big part of it related to charging infra-structure. 
What I want to know is how do the finances work?  An EV is expensive - ignore the Tesla and premium-pitched products - even a "run-of-the-mill" EV is pricey.  Vauxhall Corsa starts at £16k.  EV Corsa at £27k.  For which an Insignia is also an option, or the ICE Corsa is pretty-much BOGOF deal.

Norway put their FF money into a Sovereign Fund (I think it's now worth around $200k per person), instead of wasting it on vote winning cheap energy like the UK, and most other countries. So they can support green issues with more spondoolies. 

I still don't really agree with your position on costs, I don't think you should simply compare headline range prices, but need to look at the actual prices after any incentives, and the cost of ownership.

Quick look at Vauxhall's own site and I see the cheapest petrol car is available on a 48m lease at £185.35 with a £2,342 deposit, whilst the BEV starts at £217.22pm and £3,354 deposit.

[Most of this difference can be found/explained in the higher residual value of the BEV, which I think is something we can all agree on. I'd even go further and suggest that as 'fears' of owning an ICEV grow, we will see ICEV lease costs go up, as the companies need to consider ever lower residuals on the vehicle when it comes back.]

So Norway use tax subsidy to increase affordability of an EV.

For the UK, the capital costs variance is still significant:
The ICE Corsa at £16k is probably available with large discounts.  The EV Corsa at £27k is probably not discounted.
Using the figures above, the lease / PCP rate for the EV is much closer as a percentage than the list price variance.  Over 4-years, ICE costs £11k and the EV £14k, so 70% list price premium reduces to 30% uplift.  For the first user, the TCO will be lower.

After the four years, what happens to this car?
Is it scrapped?
Does someone buy the EV at the residual of £13k?  Rather than the used ICE at £5k.  The variance between the two is now a premium of 160% for the EV.

Regarding future residual costs, the residual of an ICE is already "rock bottom" - the residual can fall but in absolute terms not by a great deal.  Residual price of used EV is currently strong because of very low supply - as the market share of new EV increases, then the supply of used will grow and residuals will weaken.

HI. Tesla's come in in shiploads, and to avoid/minimise 'stock' in transit for the quarter end financials, they tend not to send out vehicles late in a quarter, so you don't see many deliveries in Europe in the first month of each new quarter, rather the 2nd and 3rd months of each quarter. Hence the lumpiness.

The costs I've quoted are the deals actually available on the Vauxhall site, that's all. I thought a comparison of lease costs would help explain why BEV's are already cheaper, if that's the way a car is purchased. [Note - I've never leased a car or used PCP, but I understand that the majority of Ford and GM sales are done that way. I'm simply guessing that same holds true for the PSA / Stelantis group?]

Residuals for BEV's will be higher, as you suggest due to anticipated shortage of supply, but again, I need to point you back to running costs and life expectancy, the BEV will still have vastly lower annual running costs, and an expected longer 'life with value'. I say that because the ICEV will start to hit all sorts of costs and problems, such as timing belts, exhaust replacements, brake discs, (just examples) and a gradual reduction in efficiency, and rise in emissions, which in turn push their values down fast.

So is the BEV worth £8k more after 4yrs? I don't know, but it doesn't seem unreasonable, especially as the annual difference in running costs will keep widening from that point forward.

Just for information, we had our 3yr old Ioniq serviced and MOT'd at the main dealer a few months back, and it cost ~£130. That seems pretty good to me.

JKenH

Toyota Won't Commit To EVs, Debuts Hydrogen-Burning Engine

The ultimate goal is carbon neutrality. It shouldn't be about rejecting hybrids and gasoline cars and only selling fuel cells and battery-electric cars. We want to expand the choices available in the path to carbon neutrality. This is the first step.

Toyota isn't doing this because it's behind in EVs. Toyota's doing this to save Japan's auto industry and its domestic supply chain. This is a performance by Toyoda to influence policy in a better direction.

https://insideevs.com/news/511811/toyota-debuts-hydrogen-burning-engine/

JKenH

Tesla's China orders fall by nearly half in May - report

Just wondering what is going on with Tesla in China. For the last couple of months it seems Tesla have been exporting more than half the production from its China plant. Is it because Tesla are prioritising Europe or has demand in China fallen? It also seems production is well below the plant’s capacity. Is this down to the shortage of microchips. It seems like Tesla are happy to let the rumours fly around without commenting. Whatever, it is impacting the share price.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/teslas-china-orders-halved-may-information-2021-06-03/

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

So is the BEV worth £8k more after 4yrs? I don't know, but it doesn't seem unreasonable, especially as the annual difference in running costs will keep widening from that point forward.

The £8k delta after 4 years was a figure I derived from the list prices plus the PCP figures you provided from the Vauxhall website.  Since then, indicative discount costs have been provided:

QrizB said:

One data point isn't conclusive but checking my local Vauxhall dealer on Autotrader I have a choice of a pre-reg ICE Corsa (1.2 litre, 75hp) for £14k or a pre-reg BEV Corsa (50kWh, 136hp) for £23k.

For simplicity, ignore interest (zero percent is not absurd in today's market):

So, we have ICE Corsa:

• List £16k
• Discounted £14k
• Deposit £2,342
• Monthly £185.35 x 48 = £8,896
• Total outlay £11,238
• Residual at the end of 4 years £2,762

Versus EV Corsa:

• List £27k
• Discounted £23k
• Deposit £3,354
• Monthly £217.22 x 48 = £10,426
• Total outlay £13,780
• Residual at the end of 4 years £9,220

For the first-owner, the EV is starting to look like a no-brainer, so long as the vehicle fits life-style (range, ability to charge at home).

By considering new-car discounts into the deal, the delta at 4 years has narrowed to £6.5k rather than £8k.  I am still unsure what happens to that 4yo EV at >£9k is expensive.  Given clever finance has been used to mitigate the purchase cost for the new car, the cost difference is passed to the second owner and seems a challenge then.

Martyn1981

So, the UK is teasing me by approaching the 10% BEV point this year. Come on you beautiful people, you can do it.

The graph shows examples where 10% (even 20%) has been reached, but these are anomalies due to Covid, or vehicle launches. The overall trend however, from the beginning of last year to, dare I say later this year, looks to be ~3% rising steadily to 10% ....... or more!

UK At 14.7% Plugin EV Share In May – Tesla And VW Most Popular Brands

May’s 14.7% combined plugin result comprised 8.4% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 6.3% plugin hybrids (PHEVs), in line with recent weightings. The year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 13.8%, up almost 2x from 7.2% by this point in 2020.

With an ever higher volume of compelling and increasingly affordable BEV models delivering to the UK market, and with most UK new car buyers now aware of the advantages of BEVs, the fast rate of electric vehicle growth will continue.  June, July and August have historically seen a notable uptick in plugin share in the UK, and we could reasonably expect 20% share or higher in August.
The full year cumulative plugin share in 2021 in the UK is still on track to end close to, or marginally above 20%, a doubling from last year’s 10.7%. I’d estimate that the month of December will see over 30% share, perhaps in the upper 30s. What do you think? Please let us know in the comments.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

So is the BEV worth £8k more after 4yrs? I don't know, but it doesn't seem unreasonable, especially as the annual difference in running costs will keep widening from that point forward.

The £8k delta after 4 years was a figure I derived from the list prices plus the PCP figures you provided from the Vauxhall website.  Since then, indicative discount costs have been provided:

QrizB said:

One data point isn't conclusive but checking my local Vauxhall dealer on Autotrader I have a choice of a pre-reg ICE Corsa (1.2 litre, 75hp) for £14k or a pre-reg BEV Corsa (50kWh, 136hp) for £23k.

For simplicity, ignore interest (zero percent is not absurd in today's market):

So, we have ICE Corsa:

• List £16k
• Discounted £14k
• Deposit £2,342
• Monthly £185.35 x 48 = £8,896
• Total outlay £11,238
• Residual at the end of 4 years £2,762

Versus EV Corsa:

• List £27k
• Discounted £23k
• Deposit £3,354
• Monthly £217.22 x 48 = £10,426
• Total outlay £13,780
• Residual at the end of 4 years £9,220

For the first-owner, the EV is starting to look like a no-brainer, so long as the vehicle fits life-style (range, ability to charge at home).

By considering new-car discounts into the deal, the delta at 4 years has narrowed to £6.5k rather than £8k.  I am still unsure what happens to that 4yo EV at >£9k is expensive.  Given clever finance has been used to mitigate the purchase cost for the new car, the cost difference is passed to the second owner and seems a challenge then.

Yep, for the first owner a no-brainer, and second hand (if not bought at the end of the contract) a difference of £6.5k (for a much better car, we need to stress) looks good to me, after all the BEV will probably have £500-£1000pa less running costs/maintenance (as I mentioned earlier) and a longer life expectancy. If the owner is entering an ULEZ zone, then the savings pa could be ~£2k more?

EVandPV

Bus depot bid to be UK's largest electric vehicle charging hub

Scotland's biggest bus operator has announced it is building the UK's largest electric vehicle charging hub.

First Bus will install 160 charging points and replace half its fleet with electric buses at its Caledonia depot in Glasgow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57352972

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

So, we have ICE Corsa:

• List £16k
• Discounted £14k
• Deposit £2,342
• Monthly £185.35 x 48 = £8,896
• Total outlay £11,238
• Residual at the end of 4 years £2,762

Versus EV Corsa:

• List £27k
• Discounted £23k
• Deposit £3,354
• Monthly £217.22 x 48 = £10,426
• Total outlay £13,780
• Residual at the end of 4 years £9,220

For the first-owner, the EV is starting to look like a no-brainer, so long as the vehicle fits life-style (range, ability to charge at home).

By considering new-car discounts into the deal, the delta at 4 years has narrowed to £6.5k rather than £8k.  I am still unsure what happens to that 4yo EV at >£9k is expensive.  Given clever finance has been used to mitigate the purchase cost for the new car, the cost difference is passed to the second owner and seems a challenge then.

Yep, for the first owner a no-brainer, and second hand (if not bought at the end of the contract) a difference of £6.5k (for a much better car, we need to stress) looks good to me, after all the BEV will probably have £500-£1000pa less running costs/maintenance (as I mentioned earlier) and a longer life expectancy. If the owner is entering an ULEZ zone, then the savings pa could be ~£2k more?

For the first owner, the sums work, though the delta in list price could put many off even looking at the EV - it likely requires the sales person to actually guide the choice to at least consider the EV option.  How many sales people are sufficiently driven for that, when they can close the cheaper ICE deal for so much less effort?

For the 4 yo car, someone looking at a budget of £3k - £5k retail is not going to consider a car at £9k - £12k retail.  I do understand the comment on fuel and maintenance cost, but is the potential buyer of a 4 yo car even getting to the point of doing the calculation?

You then say longer life expectancy of the EV.  I am not sure that this is proven.  Even if you are correct, there are many people that are concerned about life-span of the battery and potential massive bill if the battery needs renewal.  This is a common perception and includes myself - I take the view that the value of any second hand EV is NIL because I cannot know the battery condition.  An old ICE gets rough and noisy, but will still get you from A-B.  An old EV with a failing battery will fail to get you from A-B.

I am not sure the ULEZ charges make a difference?  As I understand it, any car, petrol, diesel, hybrid, or electric since 2016 is exempt from ULEZ fees - why, even my 2007 Focus is ULEZ-compliant.  I am considering the London ULEZ, there may be other zones with different criteria.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

So, we have ICE Corsa:

• List £16k
• Discounted £14k
• Deposit £2,342
• Monthly £185.35 x 48 = £8,896
• Total outlay £11,238
• Residual at the end of 4 years £2,762

Versus EV Corsa:

• List £27k
• Discounted £23k
• Deposit £3,354
• Monthly £217.22 x 48 = £10,426
• Total outlay £13,780
• Residual at the end of 4 years £9,220

For the first-owner, the EV is starting to look like a no-brainer, so long as the vehicle fits life-style (range, ability to charge at home).

By considering new-car discounts into the deal, the delta at 4 years has narrowed to £6.5k rather than £8k.  I am still unsure what happens to that 4yo EV at >£9k is expensive.  Given clever finance has been used to mitigate the purchase cost for the new car, the cost difference is passed to the second owner and seems a challenge then.

Yep, for the first owner a no-brainer, and second hand (if not bought at the end of the contract) a difference of £6.5k (for a much better car, we need to stress) looks good to me, after all the BEV will probably have £500-£1000pa less running costs/maintenance (as I mentioned earlier) and a longer life expectancy. If the owner is entering an ULEZ zone, then the savings pa could be ~£2k more?

For the first owner, the sums work, though the delta in list price could put many off even looking at the EV - it likely requires the sales person to actually guide the choice to at least consider the EV option.  How many sales people are sufficiently driven for that, when they can close the cheaper ICE deal for so much less effort?

For the 4 yo car, someone looking at a budget of £3k - £5k retail is not going to consider a car at £9k - £12k retail.  I do understand the comment on fuel and maintenance cost, but is the potential buyer of a 4 yo car even getting to the point of doing the calculation?

You then say longer life expectancy of the EV.  I am not sure that this is proven.  Even if you are correct, there are many people that are concerned about life-span of the battery and potential massive bill if the battery needs renewal.  This is a common perception and includes myself - I take the view that the value of any second hand EV is NIL because I cannot know the battery condition.  An old ICE gets rough and noisy, but will still get you from A-B.  An old EV with a failing battery will fail to get you from A-B.

I am not sure the ULEZ charges make a difference?  As I understand it, any car, petrol, diesel, hybrid, or electric since 2016 is exempt from ULEZ fees - why, even my 2007 Focus is ULEZ-compliant.  I am considering the London ULEZ, there may be other zones with different criteria.

I thought only BEVs avoided the congestion charge later this year? Have I got it confused, I don't live in London.
Sorry, but I just don't share your concerns about battery and vehicle life expexctancy. The early and small batt Leafs have suffered, but that's also reduced their prices for others to buy.