Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

JKenH said:

Martyn1981 said:

Here's a vid, which I was going to post on the Energy thread, but perhaps it's better here. It answers the question, that nobody on here has asked (I think) about synthetic / green fuels for ICEV's v's BEV's.
Engineering Explained is a great site, and the work is often referenced on green sites, and the car tech explanations also appear as articles in car magazines.

So ...... if we have to store energy in the future as the amount of RE penetration grows, then we may want to consider an energy dense form of storage such as bio-fuels/synthetic fuels.
This vid explains why it simply won't be economical for ICEV cars and light vehicles, though for long haul flights and long distance shipping, it may/will have value.

No, Synthetic Fuels Won't Replace Electric Cars

If I have understood the video correctly the assumption was that the electricity used to make the synthetic fuel would cost $0.15/kWh. Yet did I not see that in Portugal utility scale solar was now capable of being produced at around $ 0.013/kWh? Once the technology is proven synthetic fuels are not going to be made by Joe Bloggs in his domestic garage paying retail prices, they will be produced on an industrial scale taking advantage of PPAs. 

If, as has been suggested the best way to cut CO2 is to overbuild RE then there may be energy available at negative prices for industries that can consume the excess and switch off when demand is high. 

It is too simplistic to dismiss synthetic fuels using current metrics just as it was 20 years ago to argue solar was not commercially viable. 

Never say never!

As the leccy gets cheaper, so does the cost of running the BEV.

Edit - And as the video did explained, you'd still get a better return by using the H2, or bio-fuels at a leccy generation powerstation and then charge a BEV.

QrizB

Martyn1981 said:

JKenH said:

If I have understood the video correctly the assumption was that the electricity used to make the synthetic fuel would cost $0.15/kWh. Yet did I not see that in Portugal utility scale solar was now capable of being produced at around $ 0.013/kWh? Once the technology is proven synthetic fuels are not going to be made by Joe Bloggs in his domestic garage paying retail prices, they will be produced on an industrial scale taking advantage of PPAs.

As the leccy gets cheaper, so does the cost of running the BEV.

Edit - And as the video did explained, you'd still get a better return by using the H2, or bio-fuels at a leccy generation powerstation and then charge a BEV.

BEVs will become cheaper than ICE in the car/van market fairly soon (you commented elsewhere that the PCP price for a Corsa is much the same), and that is what will drive adoption but we're stuck with large FF vehicle fleets for a while yet. Cheaper electricity (and so cheaper synfuels) could accelerate reductions in FF use in two ways:

1. The price differential between FF and synfuels gets smaller, or even zero, so FF can be retired sooner in legacy FF road vehicles, plant, agri vehicles and so on;
2. Synfuels become practicable for other applications where BEVs aren't currently viable - aviation, shipping, etc. (I don't see airlines choosing to pay $10/litre when an B787 holds 126k litres, for example, let alone the 20M litres a container ship needs.)
   

I look forward to seeing how this plays out in practice.

Edited to remove the plural FF as the forum thought I was being rude!

JKenH

Since Mart flagged up synthetic fuels I have been having a read round on the subject. I accept, at least on what we currently know about running costs, EVs are likely to prove by far the cheaper option. However it does look like there is a significant amount of development work going into synthetic fuels and I would be surprised if in the next 10 years they aren’t easily available to motorists, even if only to serve a niche market. Who knows what the cost will be but even at $10 (say £7) per litre it may be worth it for some. The probability is the cost will fall substantially down perhaps to the $2 per litre Porsche is envisaging. (The eFuels Alliance projects fuel cost parity with petrol by 2050. https://www.efuel-alliance.eu/faq)

Perhaps we will all be sold on EVs in 10 years time but perhaps not. If running costs were the only driver we would probably all be driving round in something like my wife’s Kia Picanto, (just as everyone did in a black model T Ford). We don’t because not everyone is constrained by economics nor wants to be told what they can drive. Hopefully consumer choice won’t be outlawed if the net result is still zero carbon. 

Fuel costs are what tend to be foremost in our mind when running a car but the reality is electric cars depreciate  (although some less than others) just like ICEs. Fuel price may not be the obstacle we believe for some.

I have been involved in motorsport to some degree or other for the last 30 years and that is one area where I see synthetic fuels being very popular. I recall in the 1990s paying several £ a litre for control (pump) fuel but it was small beer compared to the other costs of competing. 

Anyone who has done a track day will probably be used to spending £1 per mile or more just for the privilege of belting round a track. So drivers won’t be deterred by paying that sort of money to keep driving their pride and joy (even if they shy away from paying that to commute).

Classic and sports car enthusiasts will no doubt feel the same. I owned a car for 9 years and dutifully paid in the region of £500 a year in tax and insurance to drive less than 1000 miles per year. Add in servicing and other costs and I was probably paying £1 a mile in standing costs even before depreciation. 

I admit most of us for our workaday lives will choose the EV but I genuinely feel there will still be demand for liquid fuel for many years to come and synthetic fuel can solve that problem in a CO neutral way. Is that not a better option than running fossil fuels?

(I will add here that I just don’t see the government outlawing new ICE cars completely by 2030. Politicians try to appeal to as many people as possible and if there is still support for ICEs in the public by then some compromise such as synthetic fuels might save the day. Perhaps leave that discussion though for another day.)

QrizB

JKenH said:

I have been involved in motorsport to some degree or other for the last 30 years and that is one area where I see synthetic fuels being very popular. I recall in the 1990s paying several £ a litre for control (pump) fuel but it was small beer compared to the other costs of competing. 

Anyone who has done a track day will probably be used to spending £1 per mile or more just for the privilege of belting round a track. So drivers won’t be deterred by paying that sort of money to keep driving their pride and joy (even if they shy away from paying that to commute).

Classic and sports car enthusiasts will no doubt feel the same. I owned a car for 9 years and dutifully paid in the region of £500 a year in tax and insurance to drive less than 1000 miles per year. Add in servicing and other costs and I was probably paying £1 a mile in standing costs even before depreciation. 

I admit most of us for our workaday lives will choose the EV but I genuinely feel there will still be demand for liquid fuel for many years to come and synthetic fuel can solve that problem in a CO neutral way. Is that not a better option than running fossil fuels?

I see merit in all of this. I used to have a work colleague who co-owned a steam traction engine. Entirely impractical as a commuter vehicle and rather expensive to run but the sort of vehicle that brings smiles to faces and which small children (and not-so-small ones) rush to the fence to watch drive past.

FF vehicles could eventually seem just as exotic.

Solarchaser

JKenH said:

Since Mart flagged up synthetic fuels I have been having a read round on the subject. I accept, at least on what we currently know about running costs, EVs are likely to prove by far the cheaper option. However it does look like there is a significant amount of development work going into synthetic fuels and I would be surprised if in the next 10 years they aren’t easily available to motorists, even if only to serve a niche market. Who knows what the cost will be but even at $10 (say £7) per litre it may be worth it for some. The probability is the cost will fall substantially down perhaps to the $2 per litre Porsche is envisaging. (The eFuels Alliance projects fuel cost parity with petrol by 2050. https://www.efuel-alliance.eu/faq)

Perhaps we will all be sold on EVs in 10 years time but perhaps not. If running costs were the only driver we would probably all be driving round in something like my wife’s Kia Picanto, (just as everyone did in a black model T Ford). We don’t because not everyone is constrained by economics nor wants to be told what they can drive. Hopefully consumer choice won’t be outlawed if the net result is still zero carbon. 

Fuel costs are what tend to be foremost in our mind when running a car but the reality is electric cars depreciate  (although some less than others) just like ICEs. Fuel price may not be the obstacle we believe for some.

I have been involved in motorsport to some degree or other for the last 30 years and that is one area where I see synthetic fuels being very popular. I recall in the 1990s paying several £ a litre for control (pump) fuel but it was small beer compared to the other costs of competing. 

Anyone who has done a track day will probably be used to spending £1 per mile or more just for the privilege of belting round a track. So drivers won’t be deterred by paying that sort of money to keep driving their pride and joy (even if they shy away from paying that to commute).

Classic and sports car enthusiasts will no doubt feel the same. I owned a car for 9 years and dutifully paid in the region of £500 a year in tax and insurance to drive less than 1000 miles per year. Add in servicing and other costs and I was probably paying £1 a mile in standing costs even before depreciation. 

I admit most of us for our workaday lives will choose the EV but I genuinely feel there will still be demand for liquid fuel for many years to come and synthetic fuel can solve that problem in a CO neutral way. Is that not a better option than running fossil fuels?

(I will add here that I just don’t see the government outlawing new ICE cars completely by 2030. Politicians try to appeal to as many people as possible and if there is still support for ICEs in the public by then some compromise such as synthetic fuels might save the day. Perhaps leave that discussion though for another day.)

Agree with pretty much all of that, I can see a demand for track day runners using a synthetic,  especially if its 0 carbon and higher octane.

Though I have to pick you up on the kia picanto, 1. Because I've driven one
2. Because actually if it was only about running costs then everyone in Scotland would have been driving an EV for the last 4 years, as the only cost would be tyres.
So far done 300 miles in the Tesla 3 charged entirely by free Glasgow chargers.
Now yeah soon that will probably end, but for last however many years, they have been free, can't get much cheaper running costs than free 😉

I dont think the government will outlaw ff sales in 2030, I think they will call hybrids as ok, need to get their taxes.....

But I think most folk would have by that time noticed the massive benefits of electric and willingly switch.

I say this as a big petrolhead who laughed at ev's 4 years ago, and now their are two on my drive

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

JKenH said:

If I have understood the video correctly the assumption was that the electricity used to make the synthetic fuel would cost $0.15/kWh. Yet did I not see that in Portugal utility scale solar was now capable of being produced at around $ 0.013/kWh? Once the technology is proven synthetic fuels are not going to be made by Joe Bloggs in his domestic garage paying retail prices, they will be produced on an industrial scale taking advantage of PPAs.

As the leccy gets cheaper, so does the cost of running the BEV.

Edit - And as the video did explained, you'd still get a better return by using the H2, or bio-fuels at a leccy generation powerstation and then charge a BEV.

BEVs will become cheaper than ICE in the car/van market fairly soon (you commented elsewhere that the PCP price for a Corsa is much the same), and that is what will drive adoption but we're stuck with large FF vehicle fleets for a while yet. Cheaper electricity (and so cheaper synfuels) could accelerate reductions in FF use in two ways:

1. The price differential between FF and synfuels gets smaller, or even zero, so FF can be retired sooner in legacy FF road vehicles, plant, agri vehicles and so on;
2. Synfuels become practicable for other applications where BEVs aren't currently viable - aviation, shipping, etc. (I don't see airlines choosing to pay $10/litre when an B787 holds 126k litres, for example, let alone the 20M litres a container ship needs.)
   

I look forward to seeing how this plays out in practice.

Edited to remove the plural FF as the forum thought I was being rude!

This line has been playing on my mind:

I look forward to seeing how this plays out in practice.

and I couldn't agree more, we could see some interesting revolutions in air and sea transport/travel. But my mind spun back to BEV cars and market share, and then I realised that literally anything could happen, and pretty soon (perhaps just 5yrs).

Here's my thinking - BEV's now have a clear run:
H2 and FCEV's are rapidly being dismissed as a potential competitor, even Toyota seems to be losing confidence.
Alternative/cleaner ICE fuels simply will be too expensive and supply limited, and in a marketplace where BEV's are already cheaper in TCO terms, plus there will still be local pollution issues.
PHEV's seem like a semi-sensible stepping stone, due to battery supply limitations, but they'll still have all the expensive 'joys'  of an ICEV, and not only higher TCO than a BEV, but an ICE too.
HEV's will start to displace ICEV's simply due to emission legislation and fleet targets forcing their displacement of ICEV's, but again will have higher TCO than a BEV.

So where am I going with this? I'm going to suggest that BEV market share is going to rise far, far faster than we expect! Importantly, not because BEV production and sales will rise faster than expected, they will be battery constrained, but because car sales will start to shrink as buyers put off purchases.

I appreciate that this sounds oversimplistic, but economically, BEV's pretty much win today, as shown in the lease costs example, so add in more cost reductions as battery costs fall, and mass production starts to reduce costs, and the message to the public will become too loud to ignore. Also, we can expect almost all car buyers in the near future, to be exposed to a BEV, as they test drive, or chat with friends/family, and as the press/media becomes ever more complimentary. So purchasing an ICE/HEV won't just be a compromise, but will become almost a desperation move for those that simply can't wait any longer.

Yes, I know how extreme this may sound, but the economics are fairly simple/obvious, so I'm pretty bullish on this now. Not saying it'll happen today, but soon, very soon, perhaps the day after tomorrow! 

Hooray! Finally found the graph I've mentioned before:

JKenH

SMMT UK vehicle registration stats for May. 

The figures are distorted because of Covid last year but looking at YTD there has been a significant growth in PHEVs and mild hybrids.

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Norway still crushing it, with 60% BEV sales in May, and BEV's slowly creeping up the total road fleet to ~12%.
Vehicles with no plug at all,  and not even hybrid, are down to single digits with 8.9% of sales.

Norway’s Plugin EV Transition Continues: 83.3% Share In May With Ford Mustang Mach-E Overall Bestseller

Norway, the leading country in the electric transport revolution, saw plugin electric vehicles take 83.3% share in May 2021, up from 65.6% in May 2020. Non-plugin powertrains, including old-school combustion and plugless hybrids, are all fading away. Overall auto volumes were back to pre-Covid seasonal norms, at 14,063 units in May. The Ford Mustang Mach-E saw a big push and was Norway’s overall bestselling vehicle in May.

Is this part "The Ford Mustang Mach-E saw a big push and was Norway’s overall bestselling vehicle in May." a great sign, or simply a managed chart topping?
I think Tesla did something very similar with the M3 when it was first launched in the UK - took pre-orders over a protracted period of time and then the first shipment landed so the cars arrived with customers in February just before the March plate change.

I also want to come back to understand the costs variance between ICE and EV.

Martyn1981 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

How has Norway achieved the 12% EV figure?
Obviously, there must be a big part of it related to charging infra-structure. 
What I want to know is how do the finances work?  An EV is expensive - ignore the Tesla and premium-pitched products - even a "run-of-the-mill" EV is pricey.  Vauxhall Corsa starts at £16k.  EV Corsa at £27k.  For which an Insignia is also an option, or the ICE Corsa is pretty-much BOGOF deal.

Norway put their FF money into a Sovereign Fund (I think it's now worth around $200k per person), instead of wasting it on vote winning cheap energy like the UK, and most other countries. So they can support green issues with more spondoolies. 

I still don't really agree with your position on costs, I don't think you should simply compare headline range prices, but need to look at the actual prices after any incentives, and the cost of ownership.

Quick look at Vauxhall's own site and I see the cheapest petrol car is available on a 48m lease at £185.35 with a £2,342 deposit, whilst the BEV starts at £217.22pm and £3,354 deposit.

[Most of this difference can be found/explained in the higher residual value of the BEV, which I think is something we can all agree on. I'd even go further and suggest that as 'fears' of owning an ICEV grow, we will see ICEV lease costs go up, as the companies need to consider ever lower residuals on the vehicle when it comes back.]

So Norway use tax subsidy to increase affordability of an EV.

For the UK, the capital costs variance is still significant:
The ICE Corsa at £16k is probably available with large discounts.  The EV Corsa at £27k is probably not discounted.
Using the figures above, the lease / PCP rate for the EV is much closer as a percentage than the list price variance.  Over 4-years, ICE costs £11k and the EV £14k, so 70% list price premium reduces to 30% uplift.  For the first user, the TCO will be lower.

After the four years, what happens to this car?
Is it scrapped?
Does someone buy the EV at the residual of £13k?  Rather than the used ICE at £5k.  The variance between the two is now a premium of 160% for the EV.

Regarding future residual costs, the residual of an ICE is already "rock bottom" - the residual can fall but in absolute terms not by a great deal.  Residual price of used EV is currently strong because of very low supply - as the market share of new EV increases, then the supply of used will grow and residuals will weaken.

QrizB

Grumpy_chap said:

The ICE Corsa at £16k is probably available with large discounts.  The EV Corsa at £27k is probably not discounted.

One data point isn't conclusive but checking my local Vauxhall dealer on Autotrader I have a choice of a pre-reg ICE Corsa (1.2 litre, 75hp) for £14k or a pre-reg BEV Corsa (50kWh, 136hp) for £23k.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Norway still crushing it, with 60% BEV sales in May, and BEV's slowly creeping up the total road fleet to ~12%.
Vehicles with no plug at all,  and not even hybrid, are down to single digits with 8.9% of sales.

Norway’s Plugin EV Transition Continues: 83.3% Share In May With Ford Mustang Mach-E Overall Bestseller

Norway, the leading country in the electric transport revolution, saw plugin electric vehicles take 83.3% share in May 2021, up from 65.6% in May 2020. Non-plugin powertrains, including old-school combustion and plugless hybrids, are all fading away. Overall auto volumes were back to pre-Covid seasonal norms, at 14,063 units in May. The Ford Mustang Mach-E saw a big push and was Norway’s overall bestselling vehicle in May.

Is this part "The Ford Mustang Mach-E saw a big push and was Norway’s overall bestselling vehicle in May." a great sign, or simply a managed chart topping?
I think Tesla did something very similar with the M3 when it was first launched in the UK - took pre-orders over a protracted period of time and then the first shipment landed so the cars arrived with customers in February just before the March plate change.

I also want to come back to understand the costs variance between ICE and EV.

Martyn1981 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

How has Norway achieved the 12% EV figure?
Obviously, there must be a big part of it related to charging infra-structure. 
What I want to know is how do the finances work?  An EV is expensive - ignore the Tesla and premium-pitched products - even a "run-of-the-mill" EV is pricey.  Vauxhall Corsa starts at £16k.  EV Corsa at £27k.  For which an Insignia is also an option, or the ICE Corsa is pretty-much BOGOF deal.

Norway put their FF money into a Sovereign Fund (I think it's now worth around $200k per person), instead of wasting it on vote winning cheap energy like the UK, and most other countries. So they can support green issues with more spondoolies. 

I still don't really agree with your position on costs, I don't think you should simply compare headline range prices, but need to look at the actual prices after any incentives, and the cost of ownership.

Quick look at Vauxhall's own site and I see the cheapest petrol car is available on a 48m lease at £185.35 with a £2,342 deposit, whilst the BEV starts at £217.22pm and £3,354 deposit.

[Most of this difference can be found/explained in the higher residual value of the BEV, which I think is something we can all agree on. I'd even go further and suggest that as 'fears' of owning an ICEV grow, we will see ICEV lease costs go up, as the companies need to consider ever lower residuals on the vehicle when it comes back.]

So Norway use tax subsidy to increase affordability of an EV.

For the UK, the capital costs variance is still significant:
The ICE Corsa at £16k is probably available with large discounts.  The EV Corsa at £27k is probably not discounted.
Using the figures above, the lease / PCP rate for the EV is much closer as a percentage than the list price variance.  Over 4-years, ICE costs £11k and the EV £14k, so 70% list price premium reduces to 30% uplift.  For the first user, the TCO will be lower.

After the four years, what happens to this car?
Is it scrapped?
Does someone buy the EV at the residual of £13k?  Rather than the used ICE at £5k.  The variance between the two is now a premium of 160% for the EV.

Regarding future residual costs, the residual of an ICE is already "rock bottom" - the residual can fall but in absolute terms not by a great deal.  Residual price of used EV is currently strong because of very low supply - as the market share of new EV increases, then the supply of used will grow and residuals will weaken.

I think EV residuals will vary car to car just as they do with ICE cars. Residuals are very strong for Tesla M3 as demand still exceeds supply (which might get worse with the chip shortage) but not so for the Nissan Leaf which has been around for a while and is not in short supply new or used. 

Here are a few examples of pricing (no conclusions inferred or implied)

I looked on Autotrader and there were 1247 Leafs available and only 85 Tesla Model 3s. There is a 2015 Leaf available for £4400 (130k miles but reportedly good condition battery) and a 2018 current model 40kwh Leaf on at £13,500 at Carzam. A Nissan Leaf new is about £23k.

A used 2019 Tesla Model 3 starts at around £34k compared to around £41k new (I think). 

A used Corsa e (2020) starts from £18500 against a new discounted price of around £23,000.  A new Petrol Corsa is just under £14k. The cheapest 2018 petrol Corsa was just under £5k but with 90k miles and there was a 29k miles one at £5.5k.

A 2019 MG ZS EV starts at around £17500 against a discounted new price of £21,500. 

Just as an aside, the MG 5 with a 52.5kwh battery is available new at around £20,600 which seems quite a bargain to me (but not necessarily to you😉).