Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

I believe the study showing that 20% of EV drivers switching back was based on 2012-2018 ownership (weighted towards the earlier years), so perhaps not relevant to todays higher range BEV's. And 80% sticking with EV's or BEV's is an incredible endorsement.

EVandPV

Oxford to get Europe's most powerful electric car charging hub with 38 devices this year - and it will draw all its energy directly from the National Grid

Plans have been revealed for a state-of-the-art charging hub in Oxford that will set the standard for charging stations for electric cars ahead of the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel models from the end of the decade.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-9603541/amp/Dutch-Fastned-Tesla-build-fast-charging-stations-Oxford.html

Martyn1981

EVandPV said:

Oxford to get Europe's most powerful electric car charging hub with 38 devices this year - and it will draw all its energy directly from the National Grid

Plans have been revealed for a state-of-the-art charging hub in Oxford that will set the standard for charging stations for electric cars ahead of the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel models from the end of the decade.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-9603541/amp/Dutch-Fastned-Tesla-build-fast-charging-stations-Oxford.html

Hiya. Just out of curiosity, why do you think the article and title stresses that the power will be coming 'directly' from the National Grid?
Just a guess, but do you think that means it's coming directly from the transmission network, managed by National Grid, as opposed to coming from 'the nation's grid' which would suggest via the distribution network?
I've no idea how important this is, or perhaps isn't, but certainly intrigued, as it may mean they are so big, and drawing so much, that they've cut out the middle men (local DNO and leccy supplier) and will get the leccy at a lower price.

Solarchaser

Looks like they have copied this park and ride in Stirling, with a paltry 32 chargers, vs Oxfords superior 38

https://www.stirling.gov.uk/news/2020/august-2020/works-begins-on-castleview-solar-panel-transformation/

Though the Stirling ones are mostly 7kw chargers... and mostly powered by solar, which to my simple mind seems a far better solution for a park and ride.

Motorway stop, you want the rapids, park and ride... eh?

Edited to say I have actually used the rapid chargers here about 2 years ago, before this creation, and did note about 3 months ago, its pretty well on.

Hopefully open soon for charging on the return from Dundee or Aberdeen 

Double edit, they are still showing only 3 devices on zapmap, but the picture gives an idea of what it's like

EVandPV

Martyn1981 said:

Hiya. Just out of curiosity, why do you think the article and title stresses that the power will be coming 'directly' from the National Grid?
Just a guess, but do you think that means it's coming directly from the transmission network, managed by National Grid, as opposed to coming from 'the nation's grid' which would suggest via the distribution network?
I've no idea how important this is, or perhaps isn't, but certainly intrigued, as it may mean they are so big, and drawing so much, that they've cut out the middle men (local DNO and leccy supplier) and will get the leccy at a lower price.

It certainly sounds like they're bypassing the local network ....

This will reduce any strain on the local electricity network and prevent the need for costly upgrades in the future, those behind the project claim.

Martyn1981

Three big stories (I feel), but I'll pop em in one post.

So first we have a seriously large order for BEV school buses in the US. I know the Yanks can be a bit stuck in their ways, but they do care about their kids, and their IQ's (adversely affected by diesel fumes), so a move like this should accelerate a national change. Plus of course US school buses can provide a great service to the local grids via V2G when they are parked up.
[Edit - Oops! Slap on the wrist for myself making the classic mistake of swapping N. America for 'US'. So these buses are going to Quebec, as the article confusingly tries to hide by specifically referring to Quebec. M.]

Largest Order Of Electric School Buses In North America Placed By First Student

The largest student transportation provider in North America, First Student, recently placed the largest order of electric school buses with Lion Electric Company. Lion manufactures both all-electric medium- and heavy-duty urban vehicles, and together the two companies announced the order. First Student is ordering 260 all-electric LionC school buses. This is the largest order of school buses — of any powertrain — Lion has ever received. This is a huge win for fleet electrification and especially for the local kids since these new buses will not pollute the air students breathe as they board, deboard, and ride the buses like fossil fuel buses do.

Herbert Diess continues to explain why H2 isn't a solution for road transport. Thank goodness our Uber-Troll got banned, or he'd be off again! The article includes the slides / breakdowns, showing how inefficient H2 is v's BEV's, and always worth another quick look.

Musk Muses As Diess Disses Hydrogen

It seems there is a huge debate taking place in Germany at the moment. On the one hand, we have the German government advocating for the use of liquid fuels derived from hydrogen. On the other hand, we have scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) arguing in a new study: “Such fuels as a universal climate solution are a bit of a false promise. While they are wonderfully versatile, they cannot be expected to replace fossil fuels on a large scale. This can only be achieved with direct electrification. Hydrogen-based fuels are likely to be very scarce and uncompetitive for at least another decade.” That inspired Herbert Dies, CEO of Volkswagen Group, to tweet:

“The hydrogen car is proven NOT to be the solution. Electrification has established itself in traffic. Sham debates are a waste of time. Please listen to the science!”

Elon's response : Diess is right. Hydrogen is a staggeringly dumb form of energy storage for cars. Barely worth considering it for a rocket upper stage, which is its most compelling use.

Here’s more from the PIK study: “Direct use of electricity would make more economic and ecological sense in the coming years, especially in the passenger car sector. It is also criticized that new hydrogen-based fuels could keep combustion technology alive longer, which in turn would ensure continued dependence on fossil fuels and thus further greenhouse gas emissions and endanger the climate targets.”

And thirdly, an attempt to calculate when EV's will become the majority of annual sales. This paragraph sums up just what a mixed bag of estimates is coming from analysts:

One metric that we do often see is the date by which EVs will start to outsell legacy gas burners, so let’s look at the forecasts from some of the most-cited analysts as to when that event is likely to take place. IHS Markit, which weighed in on the issue in January 2021, predicts that, in 2025, global sales of plug-in vehicles will top 12.2 million. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in a 2020 report, predicted that global EV sales will be 8.5 million in 2025, and that over half of all passenger vehicles sold will be electric by 2040. A more recent BNEF report, from May 2021, found that it is perfectly feasible (not that it will necessarily happen) for 100% of vehicle sales in the EU to be EVs by 2035. The Boston Consulting Group predicted in April 2021 that electrified vehicles will account for more than half of light vehicles sold globally by 2026.

Perhaps the urgency to combat the climate crisis will tip things faster?

When Will Electric Cars Start To Outsell Fossil-Fuel Vehicles? Projections Are All Over The Map

There’s another finding that most analysts agree on, and it isn’t good news: the current pace of electrification is much too slow to stave off catastrophic climate change. A new report from the International Energy Agency finds that “climate pledges by governments to date — even if fully achieved — would fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050 and give the world an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5° C.” According to the IEA report, if we don’t want to end up underwater, sales of new fossil fuel-burning passenger cars must end, to be replaced by EVs powered by renewable energy, by 2035.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 said:

The impact of these more 'energetic' speeds, was that efficiency went down a bit. Total consumption rose to 160kWh, over 587miles, and 272Wh/mile or 3.67miles/kWh.

I realised a cost for the trip would be useful, so I've tallied up the various figures to make up that 160kWh.
I'd suggest a price of 7.5p/kWh for the first 70kWh, based on half from solar which would have an export value of 5p/kWh for most, though mine is 'free' as it's a deemed export, and the other half from E7 night rate of 10p/kWh. So 70x7.5p = £5.625
Then a supercharger visit of 30kWh at 30p/kWh. So 30x30p = £9.00
A night fill up on cheap rate, at 5.5p/kWh. So 33x5.5p = £1.815
Then another supercharger visit of 27kWh at 20p/kWh. So 27x20p = £5.40
Grand total £21.84 or 3.7p/mile.

Loads of ways to reduce that figure, more solar perhaps, as the weather was quite dull leading up to departure day, a cheaper night rate (at my end) as my contract ends. Clearly I could have charged less on the way, and charged more in the evening and night on domestic rates. And the supercharger rates do vary, depending on demand, accessability, and charging speeds.

[I might be wrong here, but I almost got the feeling that the 200kW+ charging rates are too fast, in the sense that it's not enough time to pee, stretch and have a coffee, but on the other hand, it does mean faster throughput of vehicles, so less chance of a queue. 150kW is probably good enough, but it will depend on the efficiency of the vehicle, since the more important figure is probably the mph at which the car is being charged.]

Frg's* batt is just about big enough, that had I not made several diversions, and driven a tad slower, the whole trip could have been done on a mix of 7.5p and 5.5p charging, so 6.5p x 160kWh = £10.40 = 1.77p/mile.

But 'worst case' I think 3.7p is great news for longer distances. I'd suggest around 12p/mile for a diesel if it could return 50mpg at 70-80mph?

*It wasn't till day two whilst charging Frg at Heathrow, that I spotted Wifey had renamed her 'The Beast', for a laugh / as a surprise.

Grumpy_chap

That energy cost per mile figure posted by @Martyn1981 is useful.  4 pence per mile.
Compares to an ICE at around 12 pence per mile.
Both figures match the current AMAP rates quite closely.

I still think this could be an obstacle for many to move from ICE to EV.  Trying to compare "like-for-like" as closely as it is possible to.  Brand new £30k gets an ICE, high-spec Mondeo, 5-Series, A4 or similar.  TM3LR £50k or high-spec e-NIRO £40k.

At an energy cost delta of 8 pence per mile, that £10k or greater capital difference takes at least 125k miles to break-even.  Many people would consider that to be the full life expectancy of a car.

For the ICE, the plethora of nearly-new pre-reg, ex-fleet vehicles mean that the initial outlay can be significantly less and still provide a very desirable car to drive, own, and impress the neighbours.

QrizB

Grumpy_chap said:

That energy cost per mile figure posted by @Martyn1981 is useful.  4 pence per mile.
Compares to an ICE at around 12 pence per mile.
Both figures match the current AMAP rates quite closely.

I still think this could be an obstacle for many to move from ICE to EV.  Trying to compare "like-for-like" as closely as it is possible to.  Brand new £30k gets an ICE, high-spec Mondeo, 5-Series, A4 or similar.  TM3LR £50k or high-spec e-NIRO £40k.

At an energy cost delta of 8 pence per mile, that £10k or greater capital difference takes at least 125k miles to break-even.  Many people would consider that to be the full life expectancy of a car.

My ancient Fiat Panda gets around 12p/mile, too.

Falling battery prices should help with the economics. If we assume* that a BEV costs the same as an equivalent ICE plus the cost of the battery, at current battery prices of ~US$100/kWh adding a 60kWh battery will cost US$6000 / GBP4200 which gets the break-even mileage down to 52k.

* This is a huge assumption, I realise, but I need to start somewhere. And keep in mind that Ford will be selling (in 2022, admittedly) the base F-150 Lightning for essentially the same price as the ICE version.

Grumpy_chap

QrizB said:

at current battery prices of ~US$100/kWh adding a 60kWh battery will cost US$6000 / GBP4200 which gets the break-even mileage down to 52k.

Is that currency exchange rate applicable in this case?
It may be the correct exchange rate, but other factors (like rip-off-Britain) come into play:
TM3 LR in US$ 48,990:
https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview
TM3 LR in £ 48,490
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/model3/design?redirect=no#overview
(Not sure if those links will work as intended to take to the correct currency pages.)

I know the same type of issue affects ICE car-pricing, so it would presumably affect the battery costs in EV / replacement?