Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

NigeWick said:

Legacy vehicle makers are years behind Tesla's battery and automation technologies, and, Tesla is rapidly improving its build quality.

 Legacy makers have two choices:- 1. Spend many billions on trying to develop their own technologies. 2. Lease Tesla's technology.

I have to suspect they'll do neither and lose out to Tesla and other startups that don't have to make money from ICE vehicle manufacture + servicing profits to fund their BEV development. I have little evidence for this but I believe Tesla will have cracked Level 5 autonomy be the end of next year. THAT will mean Transport as a Service won't be far behind and I will be able to sell my car and have a large man cave where the garage is at present.

Yep, I've been watching all the usual news and gossip, be it Fanboi sites, or mainstream business media, and I think reality is starting to set in. Tesla have mass market and profitability, with no legacy ICE or dealership issues to contend with. They are ahead of the competition and accelerating.
Sandy Munro suspects they are close to level 4 autonomy now, but points out 'they lie', he even said not to fixate on new patents they file in advance, suggesting those are just to distract the competition and sandbag, as they simply role out even better stuff in production before they patent it later.

I think it was Jim Cramer who said there are two types of analysts now on Wall Street, those that have driven a Tesla and get it, and those that haven't, and are still classing them as an auto-maker, not a tech stock.
So weird to hear analysts saying the same stuff that the Tesla/BEV fans have been saying for years. Another analyst made an interesting comment - "It's Tesla's World, all the other OEM's are just paying rent."

Great to see the rate at which PEV's, especially BEV's are expanding in monthly sales, before long people will start to question an ICE purchase, even if they don't believe in BEV's, just because of the financial risk of owning a stranded asset.

My personal experience has been a real eye opener. After driving a 2015 24kWh Leaf, I knew ICEV's didn't stand a chance against BEV's as they matured. After driving a 2018 Hyundai Ioniq, I knew that ICEV's were dead, and after driving a TM3 I know that the old guard are in serious trouble, the future has arrived.

EricMears

michaels said:

Blimp filled with and powered by renewable power produced hydrogen?

Their might be a lot of customer-resistance from anyone who has heard of the R101 or the Hindenberg !

JKenH

NigeWick said:

Legacy vehicle makers are years behind Tesla's battery and automation technologies...

But are they years behind in battery tech? Tesla after resisting NMC battery technology has now moved to using NMC811 cells which I believe is the same as VW are using for the ID3.

https://electrek.co/2019/09/23/tesla-ncm-battery-cells-chinese-model-3-lg-mass-production-report/

People were saying last year that Tesla had a 10 year start on legacy manufacturers but if you look at the current crop of new cars emerging it hasn’t taken them long to catch up.

I also have doubts that Tesla will be able to commercially exploit Level 5 autonomous driving as soon as you hope.

https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-road-fully-self-driving-cars-tesla.html

and from reading this it seems like Tesla’s autonomous driving tech may not be as well developed as that of others.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122230_tesla-autopilot-ranks-next-to-last-in-study-of-self-driving-systems

Martyn1981

Extracts from this week's Carbon Commentary newsletter:

1, Environmental impact of electric cars. A study from Auke Hoekstra at Eindhoven university argued that much recent analysis has understated the emissions advantages of EVs. Hoekstra criticises other researchers for overestimating the energy used in making batteries, being far too pessimistic about battery life, refusing to accept that the average carbon intensity of grid electricity will not fall, using the emissions estimates of petrol and diesel car manufacturers rather than independent real-world tests and understating the actual emissions from extracting and refining vehicle fuels. He concludes that ‘… an energy system with enough renewable electricity will lead to electric vehicles that emit at least ten times less CO2 than cars driving on gasoline, diesel or natural gas’. (Thanks to Gage Williams).

5, E-bikes and cycling choice. Does easier cycling make people more inclined to use bikes? A new Norwegian study showed that over a six month (summer) period the average distance cycled per day rose from about 2km per day to over 9km after someone started using an e-bike. This represents half of the typical daily distance travelled. The use of all other forms of transport fell. In many countries the e-bike is still underestimated as a means of increasing active cycling and reducing pollution.

Martyn1981

This is an interesting article. It's really just a fun piece speculating on whether or not Tesla should help out VW. The main aim of Tesla has always been to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, and VW keep saying 'nice' things about Tesla, so maybe, just maybe?

How A Tesla & Volkswagen Collaboration Could Help The Environment

Before I dive into the idea of this, I want to share where it came from. Bloomberg reported that while in Germany, Elon Musk met up with Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess, and even drove a Volkswagen electric car, the hot new Volkswagen ID.3. 

The two met at an airport in Braunschweig where Elon Musk test drove the ID.3. He also looked at the ID.4 SUV that Volkswagen plans to launch at the end of this year. A spokesman for Volkswagen did confirm to Bloomberg that Diess met with Elon Musk but didn’t add anymore details.

Only two people know what that meeting was about — the two CEOs. However, I want to explore the idea that if Tesla and Volkswagen were to become partners, link up, or even become “besties,” just how we, the rest of the world, could benefit. Keep in mind that when it comes to Tesla, Tesla is about more than just cars — Tesla has one main objective that ties everything together. 

NigeWick

Martyn1981 said:

before long people will start to question an ICE purchase, even if they don't believe in BEV's, just because of the financial risk of owning a stranded asset.

Son in law No 2 has an iPace for his business "because it's a no brainer." His downstairs business neighbour has just bought a Tesla M3 LR for the same reason. This will mean fleets buying them soon and BEVs on the 2nd hand market in due course so ordinary folk will be able to afford them. 

Imagine how much it will cost to lease an ICE vehicle in a coupe of years...

JKenH

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

before long people will start to question an ICE purchase, even if they don't believe in BEV's, just because of the financial risk of owning a stranded asset.

Son in law No 2 has an iPace for his business "because it's a no brainer." His downstairs business neighbour has just bought a Tesla M3 LR for the same reason. This will mean fleets buying them soon and BEVs on the 2nd hand market in due course so ordinary folk will be able to afford them. 

Imagine how much it will cost to lease an ICE vehicle in a coupe of years...

I just had a look at leasing costs for a Tesla M3 SR, Kia e-Niro and Polestar 2 compared to a BMW330e and a 330d. The Kia is already far, far cheaper than a 330d. (Why is the Tesla so expensive to lease given the supposedly great residuals?)

I think we tend to look at things from our own perspective and assume that everyone will come round to our way of thinking about EVs. There are huge tax incentives to go down the EV route but despite this there are still people who can’t countenance one.

I have now ditched my Golf and Mercedes and go everywhere in my Leaf and put up with the inconvenience of charging because I want to drive an EV. We have to accept, though, that other people have different points of view and however illogical we think they might be, their views might prevail for some time yet. It’s a bit like Brexit or the US presidency. Neither side can understand why on earth the other side doesn’t see the world like they do.

The electric revolution may take longer than we think.

https://www.cars2buy.co.uk/personal-car-leasing/tesla/model-3/

ASavvyBuyer

EV sales in August overtake full 2019 total

Martyn1981

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

before long people will start to question an ICE purchase, even if they don't believe in BEV's, just because of the financial risk of owning a stranded asset.

Son in law No 2 has an iPace for his business "because it's a no brainer." His downstairs business neighbour has just bought a Tesla M3 LR for the same reason. This will mean fleets buying them soon and BEVs on the 2nd hand market in due course so ordinary folk will be able to afford them. 

Imagine how much it will cost to lease an ICE vehicle in a coupe of years...

Yep. BEV's are now entering disruption territory (the 5-10% range), which means that they will now win, as simple as that. How long they take to grow to 70-80% of annual sales is hard to tell, but the combination of a better product, and for ICEV's the fear of spending so, so much on a potentially stranded asset means that the talking is now over. And as ICE sales fall, their profit margins will evaporate rapidly, and manufacturers won't be able to counter higher unit production costs with higher prices, so a death spiral is now locked in.
I have no doubts over demand, only supply, but perhaps somewhere in the range of a 10% market shift pa this decade?
Of course some will hold out, but that's irrelevant in the case of a disruptive product (not a competing product), as the choices on offer will go with the market disruption - just like we don't see ordinary folk taking their horse and buggy to the shops to buy a B&W television ...... these days.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

before long people will start to question an ICE purchase, even if they don't believe in BEV's, just because of the financial risk of owning a stranded asset.

Son in law No 2 has an iPace for his business "because it's a no brainer." His downstairs business neighbour has just bought a Tesla M3 LR for the same reason. This will mean fleets buying them soon and BEVs on the 2nd hand market in due course so ordinary folk will be able to afford them. 

Imagine how much it will cost to lease an ICE vehicle in a coupe of years...

Yep. BEV's are now entering disruption territory (the 5-10% range), which means that they will now win, as simple as that. How long they take to grow to 70-80% of annual sales is hard to tell, but the combination of a better product, and for ICEV's the fear of spending so, so much on a potentially stranded asset means that the talking is now over. And as ICE sales fall, their profit margins will evaporate rapidly, and manufacturers won't be able to counter higher unit production costs with higher prices, so a death spiral is now locked in.
I have no doubts over demand, only supply, but perhaps somewhere in the range of a 10% market shift pa this decade?
Of course some will hold out, but that's irrelevant in the case of a disruptive product (not a competing product), as the choices on offer will go with the market disruption - just like we don't see ordinary folk taking their horse and buggy to the shops to buy a B&W television ...... these days.

Of course BEVs will win. It has been legislated that no new ICE cars will be produced after 2035. BEVs need to win hearts and minds as well or we will have a DAB radio situation.