The Alternative Green Energy Thread

ABrass

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Is HPC good value compared to wind?

Just been thinking about HPC and current electricity prices relative to the CfD strike price. As HPC is running more or less continuously and consistently then as long as electricity prices remain above £109 (HPC strike price in today’s figures) then HPC pays back money. 

During the last 3 months of last year wholesale day ahead prices averaged £191 which would produce a profit of £82/MWh on the HPC CfD. HPC would have generated 3260 MW x 90% capacity factor x 24 hrs x 90 days  = 6.34 TWh x £82/MWh = £520m.

By comparison during the last quarter of 2021 wind farms paid back £39m on generation of 21.29 TWh or an average of £1.83/MWh. 

Ah, you may say but the old CfD contracts had much higher prices. True but it was against that backdrop that the HPC strike price was set.

Yes, but wind strike prices have fallen since then. True but these £50/MWh (today’s prices) contracts are not due to begin generating until 2023/24. When they do there will be a lot more wind generation and on the days they are performing well there will be even more wind generation than on good days currently and prices will fall. 

This is the fundamental problem with wind CfD contracts; generally when the wind is blowing as we expect it to the price drops and when prices are high it is usually because the wind isn’t blowing very much. Sometimes when there is a lot of wind the prices can be negative. (The relationship of price to output is not linear. It only takes a small excess to make prices go negative.)  The more wind turbines we have the more excess wind and lower prices.

Because more wind capacity squeezes out gas generators, when the wind isn’t blowing the price rises are greater as the remaining supply is squeezed but wind turbine operators can’t take any real advantage of that as their output is very low. HPC’s output remains steady and so benefits from the higher prices and hence is able to return more under the CfD contracts.

hornsea 2 is generating at £57.50 now.

I note you are quoting 2012 strike prices to compare with the current (index linked) price I have quoted for HPC.

I believe Hornsea 2 was in a later allocation round. Hornsea 1 which would have been more contemporaneous was around £175/MWh in today’s prices.

The Government report on value for money says.

Conclusion: HPC is within the range of the costs of alternative large-scale low- carbon generation technologies in the 2020s. The HPC Strike Price (£92.50/MWh) is:

 towards the bottom of the comparable cost range of first-of-a-kind commercial carbon capture and storage (£77-249/MWh) for delivery in 2025;

 towards the bottom of the comparable cost range of offshore wind (£81- 132/MWh);

 towards the top of the comparable cost range of gas Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) (£47-96/MWh); and,

 above the comparable cost range of large-scale solar Photovoltaics (PV) (£65-92/MWh) and onshore wind (£49-90/MWh).

7) In order for large-scale solar and onshore wind to produce the same amount of electricity provided by HPC, there would be significant upgrades to the grid required (such as connection and planning costs) as well as increased costs to keep the system in balance.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/407059/Contracts_for_Difference_-_Auction_Results_-_Official_Statistics.pdf

 

HPC isn't generating any power so it doesn't matter what the current theoretical price is.

I'm not sure why you're even mentioning it. It's due in 2026, or around when any new CfD contracts for wind or Solar will be coming on line. I know you like the idea of nuclear but you're flogging a dead atom.

gefnew

But what will we put in the warheads.

QrizB

ABrass said:

hornsea 2 is generating at £57.50 now.

FWIW, https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/ list Hornsea 2 at £73.71/MWh and HPC at £106.12/MWh.

From Allocation Round 3, Forthwind is £48.21/MWh, Dogger Bank A and Sofia are both £51.06/MWh while Dogger Bank B & C and Seagreen are both £53.46/MWh.

(From https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/ choose Resources > Registers > CFD Register)

JKenH

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Is HPC good value compared to wind?

Just been thinking about HPC and current electricity prices relative to the CfD strike price. As HPC is running more or less continuously and consistently then as long as electricity prices remain above £109 (HPC strike price in today’s figures) then HPC pays back money. 

During the last 3 months of last year wholesale day ahead prices averaged £191 which would produce a profit of £82/MWh on the HPC CfD. HPC would have generated 3260 MW x 90% capacity factor x 24 hrs x 90 days  = 6.34 TWh x £82/MWh = £520m.

By comparison during the last quarter of 2021 wind farms paid back £39m on generation of 21.29 TWh or an average of £1.83/MWh. 

Ah, you may say but the old CfD contracts had much higher prices. True but it was against that backdrop that the HPC strike price was set.

Yes, but wind strike prices have fallen since then. True but these £50/MWh (today’s prices) contracts are not due to begin generating until 2023/24. When they do there will be a lot more wind generation and on the days they are performing well there will be even more wind generation than on good days currently and prices will fall. 

This is the fundamental problem with wind CfD contracts; generally when the wind is blowing as we expect it to the price drops and when prices are high it is usually because the wind isn’t blowing very much. Sometimes when there is a lot of wind the prices can be negative. (The relationship of price to output is not linear. It only takes a small excess to make prices go negative.)  The more wind turbines we have the more excess wind and lower prices.

Because more wind capacity squeezes out gas generators, when the wind isn’t blowing the price rises are greater as the remaining supply is squeezed but wind turbine operators can’t take any real advantage of that as their output is very low. HPC’s output remains steady and so benefits from the higher prices and hence is able to return more under the CfD contracts.

hornsea 2 is generating at £57.50 now.

I note you are quoting 2012 strike prices to compare with the current (index linked) price I have quoted for HPC.

I believe Hornsea 2 was in a later allocation round. Hornsea 1 which would have been more contemporaneous was around £175/MWh in today’s prices.

The Government report on value for money says.

Conclusion: HPC is within the range of the costs of alternative large-scale low- carbon generation technologies in the 2020s. The HPC Strike Price (£92.50/MWh) is:

 towards the bottom of the comparable cost range of first-of-a-kind commercial carbon capture and storage (£77-249/MWh) for delivery in 2025;

 towards the bottom of the comparable cost range of offshore wind (£81- 132/MWh);

 towards the top of the comparable cost range of gas Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) (£47-96/MWh); and,

 above the comparable cost range of large-scale solar Photovoltaics (PV) (£65-92/MWh) and onshore wind (£49-90/MWh).

7) In order for large-scale solar and onshore wind to produce the same amount of electricity provided by HPC, there would be significant upgrades to the grid required (such as connection and planning costs) as well as increased costs to keep the system in balance.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/407059/Contracts_for_Difference_-_Auction_Results_-_Official_Statistics.pdf

 

HPC isn't generating any power so it doesn't matter what the current theoretical price is.

I'm not sure why you're even mentioning it. It's due in 2026, or around when any new CfD contracts for wind or Solar will be coming on line. I know you like the idea of nuclear but you're flogging a dead atom.

If you go back on this thread to where I first mentioned HPC yesterday you will see the reason. I don’t particularly like the idea of nuclear; I much prefer renewables as a concept but we need to be realistic/pragmatic about what other elements are required for renewables to work successfully. I believe gas coupled with a reasonable (current) level of renewables is a practical solution. 

The point I was making related purely to economics. If you think HPC is bad value then all the wind contracts that preceded it were worse, but everyone wants to ignore those, as they do the cost of storage needed to make a fossil/nuclear free grid work.

Going back to your example of Hornsea 2 (at £73/MWh), HPC still looks good value at £109. With HPC you know what you are going to get day in/day out. With wind it is a lottery. Should we value consistent predictable generation the same as unpredictable inconsistent generation with the necessity for back up generation/storage? The government think it has a value, and for what it’s worth, so do I. 

JKenH

QrizB said:

ABrass said:

hornsea 2 is generating at £57.50 now.

FWIW, https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/ list Hornsea 2 at £73.71/MWh and HPC at £106.12/MWh.

From Allocation Round 3, Forthwind is £48.21/MWh, Dogger Bank A and Sofia (from AR3) are both £51.06/MWh while Dogger Bank B & C and Seagreen are both £53.46/MWh.

(From https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/ choose Resources > Registers > CFD Register)

Thanks. I used the price of £109 for HPC as the £106 figure is contingent on Sizewell C proceeding. Rather than someone point that out (as I am sure they would given the antipathy to HPC) I decided to use the higher figure. 

ABrass

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Is HPC good value compared to wind?

Just been thinking about HPC and current electricity prices relative to the CfD strike price. As HPC is running more or less continuously and consistently then as long as electricity prices remain above £109 (HPC strike price in today’s figures) then HPC pays back money. 

During the last 3 months of last year wholesale day ahead prices averaged £191 which would produce a profit of £82/MWh on the HPC CfD. HPC would have generated 3260 MW x 90% capacity factor x 24 hrs x 90 days  = 6.34 TWh x £82/MWh = £520m.

By comparison during the last quarter of 2021 wind farms paid back £39m on generation of 21.29 TWh or an average of £1.83/MWh. 

Ah, you may say but the old CfD contracts had much higher prices. True but it was against that backdrop that the HPC strike price was set.

Yes, but wind strike prices have fallen since then. True but these £50/MWh (today’s prices) contracts are not due to begin generating until 2023/24. When they do there will be a lot more wind generation and on the days they are performing well there will be even more wind generation than on good days currently and prices will fall. 

This is the fundamental problem with wind CfD contracts; generally when the wind is blowing as we expect it to the price drops and when prices are high it is usually because the wind isn’t blowing very much. Sometimes when there is a lot of wind the prices can be negative. (The relationship of price to output is not linear. It only takes a small excess to make prices go negative.)  The more wind turbines we have the more excess wind and lower prices.

Because more wind capacity squeezes out gas generators, when the wind isn’t blowing the price rises are greater as the remaining supply is squeezed but wind turbine operators can’t take any real advantage of that as their output is very low. HPC’s output remains steady and so benefits from the higher prices and hence is able to return more under the CfD contracts.

hornsea 2 is generating at £57.50 now.

I note you are quoting 2012 strike prices to compare with the current (index linked) price I have quoted for HPC.

I believe Hornsea 2 was in a later allocation round. Hornsea 1 which would have been more contemporaneous was around £175/MWh in today’s prices.

The Government report on value for money says.

Conclusion: HPC is within the range of the costs of alternative large-scale low- carbon generation technologies in the 2020s. The HPC Strike Price (£92.50/MWh) is:

 towards the bottom of the comparable cost range of first-of-a-kind commercial carbon capture and storage (£77-249/MWh) for delivery in 2025;

 towards the bottom of the comparable cost range of offshore wind (£81- 132/MWh);

 towards the top of the comparable cost range of gas Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) (£47-96/MWh); and,

 above the comparable cost range of large-scale solar Photovoltaics (PV) (£65-92/MWh) and onshore wind (£49-90/MWh).

7) In order for large-scale solar and onshore wind to produce the same amount of electricity provided by HPC, there would be significant upgrades to the grid required (such as connection and planning costs) as well as increased costs to keep the system in balance.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/407059/Contracts_for_Difference_-_Auction_Results_-_Official_Statistics.pdf

 

HPC isn't generating any power so it doesn't matter what the current theoretical price is.

I'm not sure why you're even mentioning it. It's due in 2026, or around when any new CfD contracts for wind or Solar will be coming on line. I know you like the idea of nuclear but you're flogging a dead atom.

If you go back on this thread to where I first mentioned HPC yesterday you will see the reason. I don’t particularly like the idea of nuclear; I much prefer renewables as a concept but we need to be realistic/pragmatic about what other elements are required for renewables to work successfully. I believe gas coupled with a reasonable (current) level of renewables is a practical solution. 

The point I was making related purely to economics. If you think HPC is bad value then all the wind contracts that preceded it were worse, but everyone wants to ignore those, as they do the cost of storage needed to make a fossil/nuclear free grid work.

Going back to your example of Hornsea 2 (at £73/MWh), HPC still looks good value at £109. With HPC you know what you are going to get day in/day out. With wind it is a lottery. Should we value consistent predictable generation the same as unpredictable inconsistent generation with the necessity for back up generation/storage? The government think it has a value, and for what it’s worth, so do I. 

The older wind contracts were loss leaders to build the technology out and drive down future installations. like HPC, except HPC hasn't worked.

JKenH

Constraint costs could hit £2.5bn as renewable capacity continues to grow

Up to £16 billion of transmission investment will be needed over the next 20 years, the operator found. Constraints costs are expected to peak in the middle of this, falling away towards 2040 as increased network capacity reduces the need for constraining generation. 

As such, National Grid ESO’s modelling shows constraint costs growing from c. £500 million per year now, to between £1 billion and £2.5 billion per year at a maximum, before falling away again. Constraints are recovered through the Balancing Service Use of System Charges (BSUoS), while network investment is recovered through Transmission Network Use of System Charges (TNUoS), both of which are ultimately paid for through consumer bills however.

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/constraint-costs-could-hit-2-5bn-as-renewable-capacity-continues-to-grow

This is an old article from last year but I thought worth posting as context in light of the excitement over the recently announced 15 contracts for post fault services awarded to renewables companies which are estimated to save £20-40m in constraint costs.  

In case anyone was unclear as to what these post fault services are about it is to give NG ESO the ability to uncouple generation automatically (within 150ms of a fault occurring) rather than under the current scheme where generation is curtailed in advance of an anticipated event (cross border flows too high). Thus renewable generation can continue longer or possibly avoid curtailment completely, hence the saving in curtailment costs quoted. At least that’s my understanding. 

JKenH

Government in talks to build ‘hundreds’ of mini-nuclear reactors across UK

A US energy developer backed by a fund linked to Elon Musk is in talks with the Government to build a fleet of small nuclear reactors across the UK.

Last Energy wants to build its first “mini-nuclear” power plant by 2025 and has identified its first site in Wales, The Sunday Telegraphhas learnt. 

The company intends to spend £1.4bn on 10 reactors by the end of the decade. Last Energy’s end goal is to build “hundreds of plants” across the UK, sources close to the company said.

It is believed to have asked the Government for a commitment to pay £75 per MWh, considerably less than the £92.50 that the UK is locked in to paying the much larger Hinkley Point C nuclear plant once it is up and running.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/02/government-talks-build-hundreds-mini-nuclear-reactors-across/

michaels

Interesting but 'fund linked to Elon Musk' sounds like classic 'pump and dump' 

JKenH

Boris Johnson wants to build ‘colossal’ Irish Sea wind farm within a year

Prime Minister tells industry leaders he has ‘a dream’ that giant floating wind farm could provide ‘gigawatts of energy’

Boris Johnson is pushing energy firms to build a "colossal" offshore wind farm in the Irish Sea within 12 months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/02/boris-johnson-wants-build-colossal-irish-sea-wind-farm-within/