The Alternative Green Energy Thread

QrizB

shinytop said:

Didn't anyone do a "what happens if there's an increase in demand, there's no wind/sun and gas prices go up" spreadsheet before we decided to rely so much on RE?  Or maybe they did and just hoped for the best...  

I'm sure they did.

When they were announced in 2008, Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C were both due to be online in the early 2020s. 6.4GW of 24/7 nuclear energy would be really useful right now. Unfortunately HPC is now not due until 2025 and work hasn't started on Sizewell C.

As for Bradwell B, Wylfa B and Oldbury B, well we might have fusion power before they're ever built (and fusion has been "20 years away" for the last 60 years).

shinytop

QrizB said:

shinytop said:

Didn't anyone do a "what happens if there's an increase in demand, there's no wind/sun and gas prices go up" spreadsheet before we decided to rely so much on RE?  Or maybe they did and just hoped for the best...  

I'm sure they did.

When they were announced in 2008, Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C were both due to be online in the early 2020s. 6.4GW of 24/7 nuclear energy would be really useful right now. Unfortunately HPC is now not due until 2025 and work hasn't started on Sizewell C.

As for Bradwell B, Wylfa B and Oldbury B, well we might have fusion power before they're ever built (and fusion has been "20 years away" for the last 60 years).

But we knew about that when we did this, didn't we?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/02/fracking-banned-in-uk-as-government-makes-major-u-turn

michaels

We thought we had supplies from Norway, Russia and LNG from an increasing number of different countries.  Perhaps no one did the maths that said 'look how successful the UK has been both price and carbon wise from its dash for gas, we should copy' and what that would mean for the international supply and demand balance.

IN theory it should make no odds where storage is as long as it is in the same network and the market/price mechanism remains in operation. gas goes to the highest bidder.  Of course the problem with that is if the excrement really hits then countries may ignore the market and prioritise their own citizens - the UK may offer more for gas than the Dutch users but if the Dutch govt bans the export of gas from their storage then none will flow.

ABrass

Why is RE even being discussed? RE low points is a concern, but we have enough Gas and Coal to cover that if needed. Right now we're potentially in trouble because we might run out of Gas, and even if we don't we're going to be paying through the nose.

If only we had more RE to avoid us having to rely on this unreliable gas supply.

shinytop

ABrass said:

Why is RE even being discussed? RE low points is a concern, but we have enough Gas and Coal to cover that if needed. Right now we're potentially in trouble because we might run out of Gas, and even if we don't we're going to be paying through the nose.

If only we had more RE to avoid us having to rely on this unreliable gas supply.

If only there were something more reliable than RE or gas, even if it was a bit more expensive. 

ABrass

shinytop said:

ABrass said:

Why is RE even being discussed? RE low points is a concern, but we have enough Gas and Coal to cover that if needed. Right now we're potentially in trouble because we might run out of Gas, and even if we don't we're going to be paying through the nose.

If only we had more RE to avoid us having to rely on this unreliable gas supply.

If only there were something more reliable than RE or gas, even if it was a bit more expensive. 

Tidal lagoons!

JKenH

ABrass said:

Why is RE even being discussed? RE low points is a concern, but we have enough Gas and Coal to cover that if needed. Right now we're potentially in trouble because we might run out of Gas, and even if we don't we're going to be paying through the nose.

If only we had more RE to avoid us having to rely on this unreliable gas supply.

The high baseload price is largely down to gas prices. The high peak prices we are a seeing are due to an imbalance of supply and demand. There are several plants not functional at the moment, some due to planned maintenance, others unplanned shut downs. Normally this time of year there would be plenty of wind but this month it has been very low both here and in Europe. 

In the last month wind has provided around 12% of our generation. Last year over the same period wind provided 27% of our generation  and in 2019 21%, 19% in 2018 and 13% in 2017. In 2017 nuclear was providing 27%, in 2018 25%, 2019 21%, 2020 14% and this year 17%. This year wind has generated around 39% of installed capacity. 

We do rely now on more of our electricity coming from Europe and the high cost of imports is also driving prices. We are coping at the moment but the very high peak prices we are seeing is indicating the system is not coping as well as it should this time of year and in the winter months when demand can be 25% higher than at the moment there may be problems. 

The problem with relying on wind is that is is both intermittent and unpredictable. There have been several occasions this month when wind has been producing less than 1GW so if we tripled our current wind capacity to around 75GW we would still have only added 2GW to supply at these low periods. If by the time that capacity is online our electricity demand does go up by 10GW (to cover the increased load from electric heating and electric vehicles) then even with the increased wind capacity there will be still be an even bigger shortfall of 8GW during periods like this. So how is that shortfall made up? Storage you may say. There is 16GW of storage in the pipeline but that is short term storage and won’t keep us going through a sustained period of low winds unless there are alternative generation to refill the batteries. We are stretched as it is so where will that 16GW come from to go into the batteries? 

More RE will help but on its own, even with storage, it won’t be enough. On days when wind is only operating at 3-4% of installed capacity it alone can’t solve the problem. 

michaels

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

Why is RE even being discussed? RE low points is a concern, but we have enough Gas and Coal to cover that if needed. Right now we're potentially in trouble because we might run out of Gas, and even if we don't we're going to be paying through the nose.

If only we had more RE to avoid us having to rely on this unreliable gas supply.

The high baseload price is largely down to gas prices. The high peak prices we are a seeing are due to an imbalance of supply and demand. There are several plants not functional at the moment, some due to planned maintenance, others unplanned shut downs. Normally this time of year there would be plenty of wind but this month it has been very low both here and in Europe. 

In the last month wind has provided around 12% of our generation. Last year over the same period wind provided 27% of our generation  and in 2019 21%, 19% in 2018 and 13% in 2017. In 2017 nuclear was providing 27%, in 2018 25%, 2019 21%, 2020 14% and this year 17%. This year wind has generated around 39% of installed capacity. 

We do rely now on more of our electricity coming from Europe and the high cost of imports is also driving prices. We are coping at the moment but the very high peak prices we are seeing is indicating the system is not coping as well as it should this time of year and in the winter months when demand can be 25% higher than at the moment there may be problems. 

The problem with relying on wind is that is is both intermittent and unpredictable. There have been several occasions this month when wind has been producing less than 1GW so if we tripled our current wind capacity to around 75GW we would still have only added 2GW to supply at these low periods. If by the time that capacity is online our electricity demand does go up by 10GW (to cover the increased load from electric heating and electric vehicles) then even with the increased wind capacity there will be still be an even bigger shortfall of 8GW during periods like this. So how is that shortfall made up? Storage you may say. There is 16GW of storage in the pipeline but that is short term storage and won’t keep us going through a sustained period of low winds unless there are alternative generation to refill the batteries. We are stretched as it is so where will that 16GW come from to go into the batteries? 

More RE will help but on its own, even with storage, it won’t be enough. On days when wind is only operating at 3-4% of installed capacity it alone can’t solve the problem. 

I believe green hydrogen from wind spill is supposed to be the solution that should be ideal to use with a lot of our existing natural gas infrastructure? 

Worrying I will sound like Martyn, more wind capacity and thus more spill will actually make the necessary infrastructure more cost effective so it would seem to be a transition problem rather than a long term problem and indeed if current gas prices were to become the norm it would no doubt also hugely improve the economics of such a wind build out.

Of course though it will still need storage which is already an issue.

Other point to note, highlighting the unpredictability of wind as these figures do also highlights that nuclear is not as suitable as gas as a compliment for wind because of its high fixed costs and lack of flexibility and (at least with the current aging fleet), lack of reliability.

shinytop

michaels said:

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

Why is RE even being discussed? RE low points is a concern, but we have enough Gas and Coal to cover that if needed. Right now we're potentially in trouble because we might run out of Gas, and even if we don't we're going to be paying through the nose.

If only we had more RE to avoid us having to rely on this unreliable gas supply.

The high baseload price is largely down to gas prices. The high peak prices we are a seeing are due to an imbalance of supply and demand. There are several plants not functional at the moment, some due to planned maintenance, others unplanned shut downs. Normally this time of year there would be plenty of wind but this month it has been very low both here and in Europe. 

In the last month wind has provided around 12% of our generation. Last year over the same period wind provided 27% of our generation  and in 2019 21%, 19% in 2018 and 13% in 2017. In 2017 nuclear was providing 27%, in 2018 25%, 2019 21%, 2020 14% and this year 17%. This year wind has generated around 39% of installed capacity. 

We do rely now on more of our electricity coming from Europe and the high cost of imports is also driving prices. We are coping at the moment but the very high peak prices we are seeing is indicating the system is not coping as well as it should this time of year and in the winter months when demand can be 25% higher than at the moment there may be problems. 

The problem with relying on wind is that is is both intermittent and unpredictable. There have been several occasions this month when wind has been producing less than 1GW so if we tripled our current wind capacity to around 75GW we would still have only added 2GW to supply at these low periods. If by the time that capacity is online our electricity demand does go up by 10GW (to cover the increased load from electric heating and electric vehicles) then even with the increased wind capacity there will be still be an even bigger shortfall of 8GW during periods like this. So how is that shortfall made up? Storage you may say. There is 16GW of storage in the pipeline but that is short term storage and won’t keep us going through a sustained period of low winds unless there are alternative generation to refill the batteries. We are stretched as it is so where will that 16GW come from to go into the batteries? 

More RE will help but on its own, even with storage, it won’t be enough. On days when wind is only operating at 3-4% of installed capacity it alone can’t solve the problem. 

I believe green hydrogen from wind spill is supposed to be the solution that should be ideal to use with a lot of our existing natural gas infrastructure? 

Worrying I will sound like Martyn, more wind capacity and thus more spill will actually make the necessary infrastructure more cost effective so it would seem to be a transition problem rather than a long term problem and indeed if current gas prices were to become the norm it would no doubt also hugely improve the economics of such a wind build out.

Of course though it will still need storage which is already an issue.

Other point to note, highlighting the unpredictability of wind as these figures do also highlights that nuclear is not as suitable as gas as a compliment for wind because of its high fixed costs and lack of flexibility and (at least with the current aging fleet), lack of reliability.

Isn't is better to pay some high costs for energy security?  If wind/solar is as cheap as some say then it will offset these higher costs while displacing ff.  Think of it as an insurance premium.  At the moment, the house is on fire and we've forgotten to renew the premium.

Green hydrogen has not (afik) been tested on an industrial scale; nuclear has.

michaels

shinytop said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

Why is RE even being discussed? RE low points is a concern, but we have enough Gas and Coal to cover that if needed. Right now we're potentially in trouble because we might run out of Gas, and even if we don't we're going to be paying through the nose.

If only we had more RE to avoid us having to rely on this unreliable gas supply.

The high baseload price is largely down to gas prices. The high peak prices we are a seeing are due to an imbalance of supply and demand. There are several plants not functional at the moment, some due to planned maintenance, others unplanned shut downs. Normally this time of year there would be plenty of wind but this month it has been very low both here and in Europe. 

In the last month wind has provided around 12% of our generation. Last year over the same period wind provided 27% of our generation  and in 2019 21%, 19% in 2018 and 13% in 2017. In 2017 nuclear was providing 27%, in 2018 25%, 2019 21%, 2020 14% and this year 17%. This year wind has generated around 39% of installed capacity. 

We do rely now on more of our electricity coming from Europe and the high cost of imports is also driving prices. We are coping at the moment but the very high peak prices we are seeing is indicating the system is not coping as well as it should this time of year and in the winter months when demand can be 25% higher than at the moment there may be problems. 

The problem with relying on wind is that is is both intermittent and unpredictable. There have been several occasions this month when wind has been producing less than 1GW so if we tripled our current wind capacity to around 75GW we would still have only added 2GW to supply at these low periods. If by the time that capacity is online our electricity demand does go up by 10GW (to cover the increased load from electric heating and electric vehicles) then even with the increased wind capacity there will be still be an even bigger shortfall of 8GW during periods like this. So how is that shortfall made up? Storage you may say. There is 16GW of storage in the pipeline but that is short term storage and won’t keep us going through a sustained period of low winds unless there are alternative generation to refill the batteries. We are stretched as it is so where will that 16GW come from to go into the batteries? 

More RE will help but on its own, even with storage, it won’t be enough. On days when wind is only operating at 3-4% of installed capacity it alone can’t solve the problem. 

I believe green hydrogen from wind spill is supposed to be the solution that should be ideal to use with a lot of our existing natural gas infrastructure? 

Worrying I will sound like Martyn, more wind capacity and thus more spill will actually make the necessary infrastructure more cost effective so it would seem to be a transition problem rather than a long term problem and indeed if current gas prices were to become the norm it would no doubt also hugely improve the economics of such a wind build out.

Of course though it will still need storage which is already an issue.

Other point to note, highlighting the unpredictability of wind as these figures do also highlights that nuclear is not as suitable as gas as a compliment for wind because of its high fixed costs and lack of flexibility and (at least with the current aging fleet), lack of reliability.

Isn't is better to pay some high costs for energy security?  If wind/solar is as cheap as some say then it will offset these higher costs while displacing ff.  Think of it as an insurance premium.  At the moment, the house is on fire and we've forgotten to renew the premium.

Green hydrogen has not (afik) been tested on an industrial scale; nuclear has.

Problem is though we need this stop gap now not in nuclear build out time frames (I suspect you could apply the same fusion is always 20 years away meme to production from Flammaville).  It might be cheaper and easier to build out a massive amount of gas storage and frak to fill it to solve the short/medium term problem and avoid the construction CO2 of new build nuclear.