The Alternative Green Energy Thread

michaels

JKenH said:

Article from 2018. Prescient?

A new observational analysis using data from 10 European Union countries affirms the rather devastating conclusion that wind power installation “preserves fossil fuel dependency” because for every 1% increase in the installed capacity of wind power there is a concomitant ~0.25% increase in the need for more electricity generation from fossil fuels.

And, sure enough, the growth in natural gas production and consumption across the globe is expected to explode in the coming decades (EIA, 2016), nearly doubling in production (from 300 to nearly 600 billion cubic feet per day) between 2010 and 2040.

https://notrickszone.com/2018/04/30/new-papers-intermittent-wind-power-preserves-increases-need-for-fossil-fuel-energy-generation/

Causation and correlation.  I would have thought any expansion of NG is about a switch away from coal rather than as part of support for renewables.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Article from 2018. Prescient?

A new observational analysis using data from 10 European Union countries affirms the rather devastating conclusion that wind power installation “preserves fossil fuel dependency” because for every 1% increase in the installed capacity of wind power there is a concomitant ~0.25% increase in the need for more electricity generation from fossil fuels.

And, sure enough, the growth in natural gas production and consumption across the globe is expected to explode in the coming decades (EIA, 2016), nearly doubling in production (from 300 to nearly 600 billion cubic feet per day) between 2010 and 2040.

https://notrickszone.com/2018/04/30/new-papers-intermittent-wind-power-preserves-increases-need-for-fossil-fuel-energy-generation/

Causation and correlation.  I would have thought any expansion of NG is about a switch away from coal rather than as part of support for renewables.

Much of the expansion of natural gas may be from it displacing coal but the papers refer to an increase in expansion of fossil fuels (not just gas).

JKenH

Wind farms paid nearly £2m to switch off – even as customers face soaring energy bills

Wind farms were paid more than £1.8 million to shut down this week – at a time when consumers face huge rises in energy bills because of the spiralling cost of natural gas.

The turbines were switched off over the course of three days because the electricity they would have produced could not have reached the regions that needed it. 

Instead, electricity from gas-fired power stations was used at a further cost to consumers of several million pounds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/24/wind-farms-paid-nearly-2m-switch-customers-face-soaring-energy/

JKenH

Former Tesco boss backs £16bn project to import more electricity as prices rocket

Xlinks plans to build 10.5 gigawatts of solar panels and wind turbines across 1,500km-squared in western Morocco, then run it back to the UK via a 3.6 gigawatt subsea cable landing in Devon.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/26/former-tesco-boss-backs-16bn-project-import-electricity-prices/

JKenH

Interesting question my son asked me and I couldn’t answer.

How do electric companies get charged for the electric used by their customers who don’t have smart meters? As knowbody can know if it is being used at peak times, or cheap night time to charge the electricity companies appropriately. 

Anybody know? 

(Mart, as one of those most likely to know, if you do please feel free to reply on here.)

JKenH

Article from the BBC website. When are we going to wake up and realise that the rest of the world isn’t like our little bubble? Does it matter that half the cars sold in Sweden are now electric? How much difference is that going to make to world emissions? First world policies are not going to solve what is a third world problem. 

We are ignoring the law of diminishing returns. We have picked the low hanging fruit in Europe and eliminating the last few % of emissions becomes increasingly expensive. Why not spend what we are wasting in the UK on somewhere like India where firstly it will have more impact and secondly you get a lot more infrastructure for the same money. 

The CO2 savings from switching to electric cars are marginal (if any). That money would produce a much greater return in terms of emissions saved if it were spent on solar power in India.

With our electricity grid, the emissions reductions are less and less each year because until we have storage we have to have fossil fuel plants on stand by. What we are saving from using wind and solar we are losing by not operating our fossil fuel plants efficiently. Look at the cost as well this year in terms of peak prices because wind is so intermittent. Is paying £4/kWh to generate our electricity efficient? That money could have been spent much better in the third world.

Climate change: Why India can't live without coal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-58706229

QrizB

Is this the same India?

https://ember-climate.org/project/peak-coal-india/#chapter1  (Article from Feb 2021)

An analysis of International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) new India Vision Case (IVC) from the India Energy Outlook 2021 revealed that the coal-fired generation may plateau even if India pursues higher rates of economic growth. This is consistent with the COVID-19 pathway above. IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)  shows that it is even possible for coal-fired generation to fall by 2030.

 

Cardew

JKenH said:

Article from the BBC website. When are we going to wake up and realise that the rest of the world isn’t like our little bubble? Does it matter that half the cars sold in Sweden are now electric? How much difference is that going to make to world emissions? First world policies are not going to solve what is a third world problem. 

We are ignoring the law of diminishing returns. We have picked the low hanging fruit in Europe and eliminating the last few % of emissions becomes increasingly expensive.

I read some while back(can't find the article now) that if Great Britain was completely obliterated i.e no people/animals/buildings etc that the savings in emissions would be overtaken within a year by the increased emissions from China alone.

JKenH

QrizB said:

Is this the same India?

https://ember-climate.org/project/peak-coal-india/#chapter1  (Article from Feb 2021)

An analysis of International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) new India Vision Case (IVC) from the India Energy Outlook 2021 revealed that the coal-fired generation may plateau even if India pursues higher rates of economic growth. This is consistent with the COVID-19 pathway above. IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)  shows that it is even possible for coal-fired generation to fall by 2030.

 

I presume it’s the same India, I am not aware of any other. I think that EMBER have underestimated the extent of economic recovery from COVID. Just as coal took the brunt of the cuts in electricity generation it is coal that is now making up the extra generation. 

Energy from coal is running at record highs and expected to continue to increase. 

After global electricity demand fell by 1% in 2020 due to the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, demand is set to grow by 9% through 2021 and 2022. The majority of this increase in electricity demand is expected to come from the Asia Pacific region, primarily China and India.

Based on current policies and trends, electricity generation from renewables – including hydropower, wind and solar – is on track to grow strongly around the world over the next two years. It should expand by 8% in 2021 and 6% in 2022. But despite strong growth, renewables will only meet around half the projected increase in global electricity demand over those two years.

Almost all of the rest of the increase in energy use will be met by fossil fuel-based electricity. It will meet 45% of all increased demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022. That means carbon emissions from the energy sector will rise by 3.5% in 2021 and by 2.5% in 2022.

Keisuke Sadamori, IEA’s director of energy markets and security, said: “Renewable power is growing impressively in many parts of the world, but it still isn’t where it needs to be to put us on a path to reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. As economies rebound, we’ve seen a surge in electricity generation from fossil fuels. To shift to a sustainable trajectory, we need to massively step up investment in clean energy technologies – especially renewables and energy efficiency.”

The IEA’s roadmap to net zero by 2050 requires around 75% of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 to take place in the electricity sector. That would require coal-fired electricity generation to fall by more than 6% a year, which now looks increasingly impossible to achieve as coal power expands to record highs.

http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jul-2021/coal-powered-energy-heads-record-highs

Just when India’s coal use will plateau is hard to say but inevitably it will, just not soon enough. 

My point is that it would be better to focus our energies and money on tackling the worst emitters rather than tinkering at the edges. If it is indeed true that electric cars are cheaper to own than ICE ones, and electric cars have won already then is there any point throwing good money at the electric car market in Northern Europe when it could be used so much more effectively in other parts of the world? 

Are we not agreed that coal is the worst polluter from a CO2 point of view, so should we not aim to tackle that? India and China and the rest of the third world are entitled to a similar standard of living as the rest of us. To achieve that they need to expend energy and the way things are going that means increasing coal use. That is where we need to step in and help with investment in renewables. 

Cardew

Is China still a 'Third World country?

They are the second richest counry in the world, with a GDP 7 times larger that UK. That economy is largely powered by coal and there are hundreds of coal plants being built.

They are second only to the USA in military spending, and are clearly expanding their interests in many parts of the globe.

How much should we give them?