The Alternative Green Energy Thread

gefnew

This  may help as it is a live map including interconnectors.
electricityMap | Live CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

JKenH

Estimating the marginal carbon intensity of electricity with machine learning

As a consumer, when you decide to charge your electric vehicle at a given time, you are causing the marginal plant to produce more, and therefore, are responsible for the carbon emissions associated to it. Those emissions are called marginal carbon emissions. It is the quantity that should guide our choice as flexible consumers. For example, it is better to charge your electric vehicle when a hydro dam provides the additional electricity, compared to when a gas turbines does (as the latter has much higher emissions).

Traditionally, marginal carbon emissions were calculated using assumptions on what kind of generation would be marginal at a given time. However, we’d like to present an alternative: Instead of assuming what kind of generation is marginal, this article is about how we use machine learning to estimate the marginal origin of electricity, and thereafter deduct the associated carbon emissions.

Here’s how, on average, each area generates its marginal electricity:

and here are the associated emissions of generating an extra unit of electricity:

https://www.tmrow.com/blog/marginal-carbon-intensity-of-electricity-with-machine-learning/

Interestingly while we have lower average emissions than Germany our marginal electricity production produces much higher emissions at over 500gCO2\kWh. It could be argued therefore that it creates more emissions to plug in and charge an EV here than in Germany despite our grid normally being twice as clean. 

JKenH

gefnew said:

This  may help as it is a live map including interconnectors.
electricityMap | Live CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

That does show nicely how dirty or clean our imports can be. Currently 26g/kWh from Norway, 55g from France and 452 g from the Netherlands. 

ABrass

JKenH said:

Estimating the marginal carbon intensity of electricity with machine learning

As a consumer, when you decide to charge your electric vehicle at a given time, you are causing the marginal plant to produce more, and therefore, are responsible for the carbon emissions associated to it. Those emissions are called marginal carbon emissions. It is the quantity that should guide our choice as flexible consumers. For example, it is better to charge your electric vehicle when a hydro dam provides the additional electricity, compared to when a gas turbines does (as the latter has much higher emissions).

Traditionally, marginal carbon emissions were calculated using assumptions on what kind of generation would be marginal at a given time. However, we’d like to present an alternative: Instead of assuming what kind of generation is marginal, this article is about how we use machine learning to estimate the marginal origin of electricity, and thereafter deduct the associated carbon emissions.

Here’s how, on average, each area generates its marginal electricity:

and here are the associated emissions of generating an extra unit of electricity:

https://www.tmrow.com/blog/marginal-carbon-intensity-of-electricity-with-machine-learning/

Interestingly while we have lower average emissions than Germany our marginal electricity production produces much higher emissions at over 500gCO2\kWh. It could be argued therefore that it creates more emissions to plug in and charge an EV here than in Germany despite our grid normally being twice as clean. 

Ah, Marginal generation. That's only true for the first <time period> you own it for. After that the electricity just becomes part of the normal load.

michaels

If you are charging your EV then switch on the kettle for a cup of tea does the EV stop using marginal electricity and instead the kettle does so?

I'm afraid I can't see the merit in this argument.  

JKenH

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Estimating the marginal carbon intensity of electricity with machine learning

As a consumer, when you decide to charge your electric vehicle at a given time, you are causing the marginal plant to produce more, and therefore, are responsible for the carbon emissions associated to it. Those emissions are called marginal carbon emissions. It is the quantity that should guide our choice as flexible consumers. For example, it is better to charge your electric vehicle when a hydro dam provides the additional electricity, compared to when a gas turbines does (as the latter has much higher emissions).

Traditionally, marginal carbon emissions were calculated using assumptions on what kind of generation would be marginal at a given time. However, we’d like to present an alternative: Instead of assuming what kind of generation is marginal, this article is about how we use machine learning to estimate the marginal origin of electricity, and thereafter deduct the associated carbon emissions.

Here’s how, on average, each area generates its marginal electricity:

and here are the associated emissions of generating an extra unit of electricity:

https://www.tmrow.com/blog/marginal-carbon-intensity-of-electricity-with-machine-learning/

Interestingly while we have lower average emissions than Germany our marginal electricity production produces much higher emissions at over 500gCO2\kWh. It could be argued therefore that it creates more emissions to plug in and charge an EV here than in Germany despite our grid normally being twice as clean. 

Ah, Marginal generation. That's only true for the first <time period> you own it for. After that the electricity just becomes part of the normal load.

Effectively every extra EV that is bought will have to be charged using a fossil fuel marginal generator as other than perhaps on exceptional days there isn’t enough fossil free generation to meet existing demand. Were there any days even in 2020 when we didn’t employ gas fired electricity (perhaps there were, I don’t know), but certainly not many? If someone goes out tomorrow and buys a new EV then that will increase fossil fuelled generation. 

We will get more renewable electricity as time goes by but until we have several times more we will still have to meet any additional load from gas.

ABrass

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Estimating the marginal carbon intensity of electricity with machine learning

As a consumer, when you decide to charge your electric vehicle at a given time, you are causing the marginal plant to produce more, and therefore, are responsible for the carbon emissions associated to it. Those emissions are called marginal carbon emissions. It is the quantity that should guide our choice as flexible consumers. For example, it is better to charge your electric vehicle when a hydro dam provides the additional electricity, compared to when a gas turbines does (as the latter has much higher emissions).

Traditionally, marginal carbon emissions were calculated using assumptions on what kind of generation would be marginal at a given time. However, we’d like to present an alternative: Instead of assuming what kind of generation is marginal, this article is about how we use machine learning to estimate the marginal origin of electricity, and thereafter deduct the associated carbon emissions.

Here’s how, on average, each area generates its marginal electricity:

and here are the associated emissions of generating an extra unit of electricity:

https://www.tmrow.com/blog/marginal-carbon-intensity-of-electricity-with-machine-learning/

Interestingly while we have lower average emissions than Germany our marginal electricity production produces much higher emissions at over 500gCO2\kWh. It could be argued therefore that it creates more emissions to plug in and charge an EV here than in Germany despite our grid normally being twice as clean. 

Ah, Marginal generation. That's only true for the first <time period> you own it for. After that the electricity just becomes part of the normal load.

Effectively every extra EV that is bought will have to be charged using a fossil fuel marginal generator as other than perhaps on exceptional days there isn’t enough fossil free generation to meet existing demand. Were there any days even in 2020 when we didn’t employ gas fired electricity (perhaps there were, I don’t know), but certainly not many? If someone goes out tomorrow and buys a new EV then that will increase fossil fuelled generation. 

We will get more renewable electricity as time goes by but until we have several times more we will still have to meet any additional load from gas.

Until the next solar panel or wind turbine is added to the grid, then it drops to zero.

The marginal effect analysis doesn't make sense in a system that's inherently dynamic and that has a constantly changing makeup.

Just for interest, are we adding more Solar power generation to the grid than we are electric vehicle demand?

The closest sensible measure would be to look at the change in power over a year and see if the total has gone up or down, and the fraction that came from Gas or renewables.

JKenH

AsABrass said:

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Estimating the marginal carbon intensity of electricity with machine learning

As a consumer, when you decide to charge your electric vehicle at a given time, you are causing the marginal plant to produce more, and therefore, are responsible for the carbon emissions associated to it. Those emissions are called marginal carbon emissions. It is the quantity that should guide our choice as flexible consumers. For example, it is better to charge your electric vehicle when a hydro dam provides the additional electricity, compared to when a gas turbines does (as the latter has much higher emissions).

Traditionally, marginal carbon emissions were calculated using assumptions on what kind of generation would be marginal at a given time. However, we’d like to present an alternative: Instead of assuming what kind of generation is marginal, this article is about how we use machine learning to estimate the marginal origin of electricity, and thereafter deduct the associated carbon emissions.

Here’s how, on average, each area generates its marginal electricity:

and here are the associated emissions of generating an extra unit of electricity:

https://www.tmrow.com/blog/marginal-carbon-intensity-of-electricity-with-machine-learning/

Interestingly while we have lower average emissions than Germany our marginal electricity production produces much higher emissions at over 500gCO2\kWh. It could be argued therefore that it creates more emissions to plug in and charge an EV here than in Germany despite our grid normally being twice as clean. 

Ah, Marginal generation. That's only true for the first <time period> you own it for. After that the electricity just becomes part of the normal load.

Effectively every extra EV that is bought will have to be charged using a fossil fuel marginal generator as other than perhaps on exceptional days there isn’t enough fossil free generation to meet existing demand. Were there any days even in 2020 when we didn’t employ gas fired electricity (perhaps there were, I don’t know), but certainly not many? If someone goes out tomorrow and buys a new EV then that will increase fossil fuelled generation. 

We will get more renewable electricity as time goes by but until we have several times more we will still have to meet any additional load from gas.

Until the next solar panel or wind turbine is added to the grid, then it drops to zero.

The marginal effect analysis doesn't make sense in a system that's inherently dynamic and that has a constantly changing makeup.

Just for interest, are we adding more Solar power generation to the grid than we are electric vehicle demand?

The closest sensible measure would be to look at the change in power over a year and see if the total has gone up or down, and the fraction that came from Gas or renewables.

No, adding a solar panel or wind turbine just contributes to meeting existing demand and reduces the amount of gas we burn; until we have gas free days any extra demand will still be met by gas (or in worst case coal). 

JKenH

michaels said:

If you are charging your EV then switch on the kettle for a cup of tea does the EV stop using marginal electricity and instead the kettle does so?

I'm afraid I can't see the merit in this argument.  

That’s not what I am arguing. 

QrizB

ABrass said:

Just for interest, are we adding more Solar power generation to the grid than we are electric vehicle demand?

A BEV travelling 10000 miles/yr at 0.25kWh/mile will need 2500kWh.

The pending round of CfD auctions will be for approx. 10GW of renewable generation, mostly wind. Wind is delivering something like a 47% capacity factor over the year (link but a bit out of date), so that 10GW will deliver 40TWh per year, enough to fuel 16 million BEVs.

Based on that I think we're adding renewable capacity faster than we're buying BEVs.