The Alternative Green Energy Thread

thevilla

I must admit I only really see the Telegraph headlines in my news feed and rarely try to read articles.  Given that, it seems wildly popular to knock 'net zero' without any alternative approach.  Apparently it is too expensive but how expensive would carrying on as before be?  Reinsurers have apparently been sounding alarms about risks becoming uninsurable as climate change makes costs unpredictable.  They should know.

JKenH

Effective Radiative Forcing

Interesting video from Dave at Just Have A Think on a study which suggests we should look at Effective Radiative Forcing to measure the impact of mankind on global warming. Its conclusion is that we are underestimating the effective of agriculture which may be the biggest single driver rather than fossil fuels. 

https://youtu.be/Y9f16OTL1Lg?si=uVllS4ZI5ch-ykyS

JKenH

thevilla said:

I must admit I only really see the Telegraph headlines in my news feed and rarely try to read articles.  Given that, it seems wildly popular to knock 'net zero' without any alternative approach.  Apparently it is too expensive but how expensive would carrying on as before be?  Reinsurers have apparently been sounding alarms about risks becoming uninsurable as climate change makes costs unpredictable.  They should know.

Yes, we do need to look at the economic cost of  global warming - both the impact if we do nothing and the cost of measures we take to fight it. The Telegraph does not deny global warming is occurring but it questions whether the measures (in particular those taken by the UK) are a cost effective use of resources - a view I agree with. 

Could we spend our money better, perhaps, by focusing investment in areas where the greatest returns can be achieved and that is not necessarily in the UK? The law of diminishing returns applies so our intervention needs to be carefully targeted. In the UK we are already a long way down the road to cutting our emissions and have already achieved the most cost effective savings while other countries have hardly started. The law of diminishing returns applies and trying to squeeze out the last few % of CO2 is going to consume a disproportionate amount of resources. It is not as though there aren’t other demands on the public purse. 

It really boils down to priorities. I acknowledge that for many people on this forum (and indeed for Mr Milliband) global warming is the most pressing of all the issues we face but that view is not necessarily shared by the population as a whole. 

thevilla

Yes, money invested in the "global south" could be well spent in that respect.  Interesting that there weren't many right thinking objections to the cut in the foreign aid budget

( That i saw anyway).

I'm not sure we're where we need to be at home though.  If we want to see the cost benefits of RE investment we need to get to the point that gas is not used on the network for significant periods.  Gas then would not determine the retail electricity price.

JKenH

Gas is just a convenient scapegoat. The average day ahead wholesale electricity price over the last year has been below the strike price for offshore wind in AR6. Gas generation is already connected to the grid and dispatchable. We are told the price of gas can only come down as renewable energy takes over. Wind and solar generation needs new grid connections at extra cost and long and short term storage at extra cost to mitigate its inherent intermittency - costs that are conveniently ignored. Removing gas from our generation mix is not going to bring down the cost of electricity. 

Magnitio

It would be good if there was a concerted effort to reduce consumption. The level of insulation in many homes is poor. Even some new builds I have visited have had very poor/missing insulation. A lot of people don't seem to care about the amount of energy they use and blame their large bills on the high price of energy rather than their wasteful habits, inefficient heating and lack of insulation.

thevilla

JKenH said:

Gas is just a convenient scapegoat. The average day ahead wholesale electricity price over the last year has been below the strike price for offshore wind in AR6. Gas generation is already connected to the grid and dispatchable. We are told the price of gas can only come down as renewable energy takes over. Wind and solar generation needs new grid connections at extra cost and long and short term storage at extra cost to mitigate its inherent intermittency - costs that are conveniently ignored. Removing gas from our generation mix is not going to bring down the cost of electricity. 

Are you suggesting all the people saying marginal pricing, mostly based on gas, is elevated due to the cost of gas generation are wrong?  There'll be a lot if egg on faces if you're correct.

The benefits are not just electric pricing.  Dirty air costs around 30000 premature deaths in the UK.  Getting ice vehicles off the road and removing gas heating will alleviate that. 

JKenH

thevilla said:

JKenH said:

Gas is just a convenient scapegoat. The average day ahead wholesale electricity price over the last year has been below the strike price for offshore wind in AR6. Gas generation is already connected to the grid and dispatchable. We are told the price of gas can only come down as renewable energy takes over. Wind and solar generation needs new grid connections at extra cost and long and short term storage at extra cost to mitigate its inherent intermittency - costs that are conveniently ignored. Removing gas from our generation mix is not going to bring down the cost of electricity. 

Are you suggesting all the people saying marginal pricing, mostly based on gas, is elevated due to the cost of gas generation are wrong?  There'll be a lot if egg on faces if you're correct.

The benefits are not just electric pricing.  Dirty air costs around 30000 premature deaths in the UK.  Getting ice vehicles off the road and removing gas heating will alleviate that. 

Perhaps we should turn off gas generation for a day and see what happens to prices then. We would no doubt have to buy electricity from Europe. In 2022 we had to pay £9724/MWh for electricity from the NEMO link. 

thevilla

That is scheduled to happen sometime this year.  Time will tell.  If it does it will be a significant achievement when remembering years ago we'd never be capable of a grid with more than 10% renewables (then 15, 20 etc etc.)  I'll have my battery charged just in case 😄

The £9724 price was with gas available btw.  You can't really cherry pick a half hour in a heat wave.  Just emphasises the need for grid reinforcement and more distributed battery storage.

QrizB

thevilla said:

The £9724 price was with gas available btw.

And (in case anyone has forgotten) that gas capacity was available in the UK, and would have cost a lot less. Sadly the grid couldn't deliver it to the pocket of SE England that needed it, and the only way to prevent load shedding was to import it from continental Europe via an interconnector.

thevilla said:

Just emphasises the need for grid reinforcement and more distributed battery storage.

Exactly.