The Alternative Green Energy Thread

JKenH

michaels said:

Without a counterfactual there is little that can be taken from those figures - for example during hat period that has been a large uptake of EVs and a more limited uptake of heat pumps (remember they are supposed to break the grid) and yet demand is down - perhaps strip those new uses out and demand has been considerably price elastic.....

Say there are 1,000,000 EVs on the road (it’s a bit less than that but there are PHEVs as well) doing 8000 miles a year at 3.2mpk, that’s 2.5MWh each or an average of 6.85 kWh per day or 0.285 kWh every hour  (0.285 kW) then that’s 0.285 GW added to demand or less than 1% of demand. I am struggling to find the latest figure for heat pumps in the UK (I have seen figures from 200k to 380k) but let’s take the higher figure. Octopus suggest the average heat pump will use 3.2 MWh per annum so that’s 1216GWh per annum or 0.139 GW added to demand. So heat pumps and electric cars have added 0.42 GW to average demand. (These are 2023 figures and to be fair we should be taking midpoint 2022 so a more realistic figure for 2022 might be 0.35GW.)

Demand was falling on average by about 1.75% per annum between 2012 and 2019 so extrapolating that trend from 2019 to 2022 we might have expected 2022 demand without EVs or heat pumps to be 30.87 GW. Instead we saw 31.88 in 2022. About 0.35 of that increase is accounted for by EVs and heat pumps but we still have a net increase over expected demand. Of course we don’t know if the efficiency savings over the previous 6 years would have continued but there is very little evidence that higher electricity prices have had any significant impact on demand. 

Netexporter

But as EVs and heat pumps are ideal for utilising the 50% of unused capacity in the grid, at night, it is nowhere near becoming a problem.

1961Nick

michaels said:

Without a counterfactual there is little that can be taken from those figures - for example during hat period that has been a large uptake of EVs and a more limited uptake of heat pumps (remember they are supposed to break the grid) and yet demand is down - perhaps strip those new uses out and demand has been considerably price elastic.....

Looking at 2022 to see what effect new BEV registrations are likely to have had on electricity demand.

Registrations 276,000
Average mileage 10,000
kWh/annum 2857
kWh/day 7.82

So assuming sales were evenly spaced over the year, the average number of additional vehicles was 138,000.

138,000 x 7.82kWh = 1.08GWh/day

I doubt the few heat pumps sold will have made any noticeable difference to demand.

paul991

I wonder how much of the power used by Bevs and  Heat pumps is offset by early adopters more likely to have solar and or battery storage systems much of which is for self consumption will be unmetered 

JKenH

An article in the Telegraph from Neil Record, a former Bank of England economist about the consequences of an immediate cessation of fossil fuel use as some eco groups appear to be demanding. It is alarmist but it demonstrates the world’s dependence on fossil fuels and the irrationality of Just Stop Oil's demands. Here are a few snippets - I have tried to limit what I have quoted because of copyright. 

What could happen if we just stopped oil? Six billion might die

Day 1 – no more mining of coal; the world’s oil wells shut down; the world’s gas fields likewise. The first to feel the change would be gas users….

This would mean in turn that the domestic supply would be shut down too – gas would stop flowing, and some 21 million households (74pc of the population) would no longer have heating, hot water, and cooking facilities. In their panic, people might turn to electricity for their cooking and heating, but wait…

The UK electricity grid relies on natural gas as its “buffer” energy source. 

Electricity demand would have rocketed through the switch to electric space heating, cooking and water-heating, and so it seems very likely that the sudden excess demand would be undeliverable, and therefore that the grid would spiral into uncontrollability.

No electricity means no communication systems – no mobiles, no TV, and no running water.  With no power and no heating, vulnerable people start to die.

Initially just the elderly in their own homes, then in hospitals when the diesel back-up generators run out of fuel, but then new existential problems emerge for ordinary people in the form of food availability and distribution.

Day 25 – I’m probably being generous with the timing here, but diesel and petrol are likely to have run out by day 25. This means that food distribution would fail, and so the population, most of which are entirely dependent on bought food, begin to starve.

In the 50 days since the ending of fossil fuel supply, law and order would have broken down, and I suspect that mass conflict and slaughter would have been taking place with the increasingly desperate search for the means of survival.

But disease would be on the rampage too, with no power, no water supply and no sewage flow, so cholera, dysentery and all the other Victorian diseases of crowding would take over.

Day 100 – just three months or so since the world just stopped oil – my guess is that around half of the world’s population (say four billion people) would be dead…..

Here’s my question: do the nice, well-meaning people of Just Stop Oil understand how the world works, or not? If they do, they are nihilists; if they don’t, then why are they disrupting the smooth running of our society, promoting an extreme course of action of which they have no understanding? 

If, by the way, my analysis is wrong, they should enlighten us on how an immediate ban on fossil fuels will allow civilisation to continue and flourish.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/just-stop-oil-what-happens-six-billion-might-die/

Edit: I was going to quote more but really feel I need to stop at this point. However, the conclusion of the article was not that we continue as before but that a more nuanced approach is needed taking into account the realities of how the world works. 

JKenH

World’s largest offshore wind farm gets go-ahead in Britain

The UK’s leading offshore wind developer has agreed to push ahead with plans for its flagship project off the coast of Norfolk.

Ørsted, the Danish renewable energy giant, had been understood to be in talks with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero about securing more generous subsidy arrangements for its Hornsea 3 wind farm project.

The company has taken the final investment decision on the scheme, which will see 231 turbines installed off the coasts of Norfolk and Lincolnshire, generating power for 3m homes. It is expected to be completed by the end of 2027.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/20/worlds-largest-offshore-wind-farm-gets-go-ahead-off-uk-coas/

Edit: I thought it would be useful to add this paragraph about the increase in CfD rates. It is probably old news but I missed it.

The maximum strike price for the upcoming subsidy auction was increased by the Government last month by 66pc for offshore wind projects, from £44 per megawatt hour to £73 per megawatt hour.

JKenH

The new rates are worth a separate post 

Industry expresses relief at CfD strike price increases

Offshore wind saw the largest increase, as its strike price rose by 66% from £44/MWh to £73/MWh in Auction Round 6 (AR6), followed by floating offshore which increased by 52% to £176/MWh.

This increase follows a disappointing AR5 which saw no offshore wind projects receiving funding due to the low strike price, which meant the scheme was not deemed economically viable.  

To further support new offshore wind bids in AR6, the government confirmed that a separate funding pot will also be set for the technology.

Other technologies also saw a significant increase in their strike prices with solar, tidal and geothermal seeing a 30%, 29%, and 32% rise, respectively.

https://www.current-news.co.uk/industry-expresses-relief-at-cfd-strike-price-increases/

michaels

Am I right in thinking these are the highest bids that will be accepted but if there are lower bids then the strike price for those will be at the price bid?

QrizB

michaels said:

Am I right in thinking these are the highest bids that will be accepted but if there are lower bids then the strike price for those will be at the price bid?

That's how it has worked in the past, yes.

JKenH

Interesting development on stalled North Sea wind farm developments with RWE buying the rights to develop these for £1bn. So what happens next? 


Surely RWE can’t make them pay at £37.35/MWh? Do RWE hope they can renegotiate, or like Orsted, shift some of the CfD contracts into AR6? Orsted said that they had substantially agreed the construction costs on their stalled Hornsea 3 farm before the inflationary cost increases so have RWE taken on some of Vattenfall’s already agreed construction contracts?

Or were the wind farm developers just trying it on? Why would RWE pay £1bn for the loss making contract Vattenfall said it was? It’s a bit of a coincidence that the wind farm developers, having convinced the government to double the CfD contract price for AR6, have now decided these AR4 contracts are viable after all.

Norfolk offshore wind farms sold to RWE for £1bn

The rights to develop three of Britain's largest wind farms have been sold by Swedish company Vattenfall to German rival RWE for nearly £1bn.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-67796231